oowwww - he's going to be a sorry boy...just look at China's stance to counterfeiting (I mean when they put the Yuan symbol on a Panda or whatever, not the 'acceptable' fakes without) If it could happen in China, could happen at PM
This is why I think China is headed for a hard landing: 1) They manipulate their economic figures 2) They may be capitalist in form, but the economy is still dominated by a corrupt elite. I am sure this kind of theft and embezzlement is happening on a massive scale. the Chinese law system is too primitive and too beholden to party interests to stop this. 3) Massive malinvestment. There are stories of ghost cities, pharmaceutical factories built to rival the palace of Versailles...all of this is waste and misallocation of resources. 4) China has had no real experience of capitalism for the past 50 years. As a result, they will fall for bubbles and speculation mistaking it for prosperity. There are no true controls in place in their primitive capitalism to stop this. If the "developed" world has no defence against bubbles and speculation, what hope do the unsophisticated Chinese mainland investors have?
I disagree with some of your comments. Yes, there is a corrupt elite - but there is also a concerned elite who are determined (and intelligent) at managing a Central Government. Yes, there are Ghost Cities. But these cities are forward looking investments. Much like how China cornered the Rare Earth metals market by looking at what they needed in advance. You don't build extra accommodation the day you need it, you build it years in advance. Much like how their infrastructure is developing. China has a great experience and history of capitalism, including the last 50years. I recommend the following books if you want a more accurate perspective. Their views on Ghost Cities concurs with my experience. Stephen Leeb: Red Alert: China's Growing Prosperity Threatens the American Way of Life Jim Rogers: A Bull In China Jim Rogers: Hot Commodities Considering China's modern history, the potential collapse of the modern financial system is still not on the same level as being forced onto drug repayments (E.g. Britain), having to fight an invading army (E.g. Japan), having to fight a civil war (Nationalists vs Communists), or having to fight a neighboring war (E.g. The USA vs North Korea). Yes, China will face difficulties, but nothing that (by God's grace) she shouldn't be able to handle.
1) Everybody manipulates economic figures. Australia's GDP growths are sometime propped up by government spending. Likewise for other countries. 2) They are not capitalists in form, not even close. The Chinese know that corruption is rather rampant and they adjust accordingly (bribes, connections etc). You're right though, the legal system is ill-adapted to stop this due to conflict of interests. 3) You have to have been to China to understand. Ghost cities do not last long as ghost cities. I have been to one myself a few years ago it was pretty amazing (& empty) but it is now a massive economic hub in the area. There are a lot of people in China. Urbanization is rampant and the scale is much larger than what Western economies experienced during industrialization. Having said that, a centrally planned economy definitely has room for poor investment and poor planning but I have been to Beijing and I have to say that being a 'centrally planned city' it is very efficient and easy to navigate, much more so than Sydney for example (of course I don't know how the resources were allocated/how much it cost to build Beijing). 4) That is false. China operates under "communism" but they're capitalists at heart and have been for many years. Some of the most astute Asian businessmen are Chinese. China also has had bubbles and they understand speculation. Speculation is rife in the coin/banknote/philatelic market in China (and plenty other markets, China LOVES to speculate on commodities such as food) and prices are often manipulated to bubblish levels. Of course like the rest of the world some people do get burnt by the bubbles through sheer greed but definitely not through ignorance of said bubble. There is no way to stop rampant speculation short of having an iron grip over the economy which arguably puts China in a better position to do so than Western economies that seem to value the 'free market'.
They are doing better than Japan of the 1980's. re investing in Australian golf resorts vs strategic assets
OK, so doesn't this all extoll the virtues of an "intelligent" central planning agency with capitalist features over the free market? So the Soviets screwed up by trying to control their whole market, but the Chinese are doing it better because they are enacting "regulated and strategic capitalism" (a.k.a state capitalism)?
Heheh... usually it would be an oxymoron... but in China's case, a large percentage of the leading govt managers have degrees in hard sciences/engineering. E.g. HuJinTao was an engineer, with a specialization in Hydro-power. Makes sense that China is now one of the leaders in renewable energy and water redistribution projects. Yes, there are a lot of corrupt inept officials, but there are also a lot of hard-working adept concerned officials too.
So do I when the trolley comes around. I speculate on cows guts, chicken feet, tendons and the like, and the waitress speculates that I can't understand her when she says . So I just order more sticky rice with that crazy sausage for those sticky lines in my brain.
I know most of you in this thread are Chinese or have Chinese ancestry, but would you like to see Australia run under state capitalism provided the people running the economy were technocrats?
No. I hate the way China runs things (corrupt, lack of rights etc) but that's how they do it. I still think that competition fosters the best 'quality' and 'innovative' stuff, governments tend to suck at that stuff. Although I'd love to have some intelligent people in politics over here instead of a bunch of dweebs.
I am not Chinese in any way. I have been to both China and Japan, plus various other places. The most we can hope for under any system is a benevolent dictator. Rotating them with more skills than LLB's might be better again. Chosen by darts thrown by the local zoological exhibit.
Heheh... I thought Australia was already running under state capitalism, where the people running the economy were/are socialists.
