It's difficult to find any pro-PM prognosticator over the past 4 years who has been correct on most of his/her calls. Many of these folks have followers who would renounce their favorite bullish pundit if said pundit became a PM "bear" or didn't keep promising hyperinflation, crash of housing prices, crash of stock market, crash of derivatives, etc. All of these things will come in time I am sure, but didn't happen as the pro-PM pundits promised. He is obviously a smart guy, but it's been the bearish pundits who've been correct for a while now. I've stopped "listening" though to any pundits who sell something which is promoted by said pundits' prognostications, dire warnings, etc. Unfortunately this includes most of the pundits I am aware of. I would trust our fellow poster Leon's predictions over most of these "professionals" at this point in the game. Just my opinion. Jim
yeah, a lot of people bag him for previous calls; I'm not worried about that stuff. he has been right on the Fed this year. And his reasoning on why the U.S is buggered is spot on.
It seems like for a long , before a meeting about rate rises there is talk of a rise but no rise.. About when did this talk of fed increase interest rates talk start?? Year? And a half? 2?? I'm no expert. At all. But if I was a betting man, I would be betting against a rise.
The Fed made an announcement Friday they will be holding an "expedited, closed meeting" on Monday. This is very strange indeed. First, aren't all meetings "closed"? And how often do they hold "expedited" meetings. When I first heard this my mind started to turn toward "why"? Why would they have the need to do this? And on such short notice? clip_image001 My first thoughts were either something may have broken in the derivatives markets or maybe it had something to do with the upcoming IMF vote to decide whether or not to let China into the SDR? These two thoughts made the most sense as markets have moved in large percentages both up and down. The stock and sovereign bonds markets have been firm and still pressed up against their highs so it can only be a short in trouble. Commodities have been eviscerated so maybe a long (Glencore or others?) could be in trouble? As for the possibility they are meeting prior to the IMF vote, the dollar has been firm so there is no current dollar crisis for them to manage. Please understand, the Fed NEVER gets out in front of anything. I find it unlikely the Fed is meeting to strategize how they will handle the inclusion of the yuan into the SDR and thus a lower slice of the pie for the dollar. Alternatively, is it possible the Fed has been informed there will be a veto to the Chinese entrance and are preparing for the blowback from such an action? In my opinion if this were to really occur, it would be the very worst of all worlds. The Chinese may not immediately react to the lost of face but understand this, they WILL REACT. Maybe they wouldn't just pull the plug out of the wall but the "power" will be disconnected! If we take their statement at face value, it sounds like they are considering changing what they pay banks for the massive pile of deposits that have piled up at the Fed. Could it be the Fed wants these balances to be lowered and will decide to lessen the incentive to banks to park money and rather entice them to lend? This thought process would be supported by the collapse in the velocity of money but the question remains, will the banks begin to lend. jsmineset.com
We have a random Fed announcement coming up today (Monday US time) God knows what it's about but could give indication of what is coming around the corner. Might explain today's drop in commodities and strength in USD.
If the Fed is as truly data dependent as they say they are, then there is no reason for them not to raise. Within 6 months or 3 rate rises we'll know whether it's a policy mistake which of course I think it will be. Yields on 10 year bonds rallying and a flattening of the yield curve between 2 and 10 year bonds, the share prices of the major investment banks and capital outflows from emerging markets will be key things to watch. By the end of next week we should have a better idea whether the Fed will raise or not. As for gold and silver they should continue to sell off at least initially until the macro data starts turning sour once again raising doubts over the Fed's tightening policy. The hike would not be completely priced in and if they do raise, the markets will immediately start front-running pricing in the next hike. The other thing is the Fed needs other central banks to move in lock-step with them raising rates otherwise the USD is just going to go through the roof and then the US economy will crash the same way it did in 1937. Problem is there is no other major central banks even close to a position to raise rates at the moment.
FED is meeting TODAY! Banksters must be NET LONG on silver now. Their position is ready and FED helps to pull the trigger ASAP.
4 days notice , we will not have to guess about rate hikes after announcements today as they will pretty much confirm or deny a coming hike. I would have personally said NO RATE HIKE this year, but the fact Schiff is saying that as well makes me doubt myself and think hike away BECAUSE THAT TWIT IS NEVER RIGHT on big issues.
Judging by his latest on air interview with Alex Jones it seems like Schiff himself thinks its 'probable' that the fed is going to lift the rates by 0.25%. Why do you think he is a twit? He was one of a few that predicted the housing bubble and the economic crises. They seem to be big issues to me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmaoKpUFE-E
