Analysing the last bull/bear/bigger bull run of gold in the 70's.....I have come to a conclusion. The mid bear ended when the downward channel was broken to the downside and was followed by a rapid drop. If this latest drop bounces off the bottom of the current downward channel and flattens for a month or 2, then the final drop will be similar in magnitude to the previous significant drop....about $150......this is putting it around the $930-$950 mark. Please do not refer to my previous analysis because they have all been wrong....but hey...give enough monkeys enough typewriters then you are sure to get a best-seller sooner or later.
It is a tough one Tolly. We are going under $1000 that is for sure , how far though is going to be the question. 1980 and 2011 were/are just irregular noise on the radar that need to be deleted to get a true picture of where we stand. Gold and silver will have their day agin, but it "might be "a decade or 2? away
Yes..$930 and $800 are key targets. If it only hits $930 and I don't get my SLR shares....(They should be about 10 cents ) by then...... I will have to wait until confirmation of the bottom.....by that stage SLR will be 40 cents If it does go to $800 then it will only be about 5 cents a share... I think I have already convinced myself which way to go now that I have just written down the choices. Thanks sterling.....$930 it is.
High $900's would be a 50% retracement of the high, as good a place as any to plant your flag, that's been Jim Rodger's call for a long time.
And when the Fed keeps rates on hold on Dec 16th then what ? The 0.25 rate rise is priced in already. I am not convinced it will transpire ?
Jim Rodgers is actually the only guy i have ever given any consideration when looking to put our money places. +1
Not a prediction, just a guess. SLR tends to reflect sentiment. When the mood is positive it is quick to rise. A bit slow to fall but it does eventually. A drop under the $1000 mark could mean a possible exit from gold stock positions. This is the time to strike.
The COT report sees the commercials reduce their net short gold position from 160,000+ contracts to 12,000+ contracts - near decade low. Time for the rinse cycle approaches The game continues but who cares ?
SLR does indeed seem to follow sentiment, and the general shape of the SLR price graph generally follows gold, but not necessarily the slope. What price you buying into SLR at?
Out on a limb again.... After some investigating that took the whole of about 30 seconds.... ************* April ***************** That is my prediction for the bottom. Of course if it is wrong I can always claim it was an early April fools joke....me being the fool.
If I was a gambler, and I'm not, I'd put all of my money on Ronnie 666 for the long-term. He's the only member on the forum who thinks ahead and probably has metal for the right reasons. Woops watch that soap!
