Yes the mintage on the 2011 pandas is in the millions and mintage on the 2012s is several million. I believe the 2010 pandas are the last ones with a mintage below 1 million. So, the lower mintage advantage is gone for the post 2010 pandas.
That's what I thought. So besides my mom and girlfriend thinking they are cute and pleasing them with some in their Christmas Stockings, there won't be any advantage to spending the premium on these going forward. My current philosophy, which I am working back to... 1-2 high premium BU for the personal collection Secondary stack for diversification (Eagles, Libertads, Maples, Philharmonics...purchased if/when premium is reasonable) Core stack comprised of well-liked bars (for me, Scottsdale, Silvertowne, NTR, Generic Morgans)
I'm solely a rough poured bar man - I do have my 'weird and wonderful' collection of bars and coins too. I do have a selection of bullion rounds and collect a lot of sovereigns and half sovs, but I just feel that bars look nicer in the safe than coins, that and I don't have any fear that I'll drop/scratch/dirty them. The rougher the better for me. I'm not proud - its still silver. I steer well clear of lunars, macaws, pandas or any of that stuff - not for any other reason than I'm too lazy to play that market. I make enough profit from buying and selling jewellery - bullion is simply my way of holding that profit the same way that I would assume many people would put their profits from premium coins into more face value coins or rounds. That's not to say I don't have an enormous amount of respect for those people that do that regularly - its just my preference.
Indeed, the mintage of the 2011s has been increased, but the supply of them is still relatively low, whereas the demand for them continues to grow. If we approach it from the supply angle: 6,000,000x 1oz 2011 Silver Pandas is a low supply for a population of 1.4billion people. (only 1 person in 233 people can possibly hope to have one) If we factor in more nations the supply drops even more. 6million Pandas is relatively few when you consider that America can mint 6million ASEs in a month. If we factor in that many people don't buy only one, but usually much more, then 6million really is a very miniscule number. (Obviously not as small as a mintage of 4,000; but it is small considering about 35million ASEs were minted in 2010) If we approach it from the demand angle: Demand for Pandas is increasing domestically (and internationally). As China becomes more wealthy, the number of investors (and collectors) is likely to grow. If we approach it from the marketing angle: Obviously older Pandas will perform better in the short, mid and long term. By exposing the market to many recent Pandas (2010s and 2011s) they have effectively stimulated demand for the older coins too. Critical Point: Supply of all Pandas is tight, including the 2011s (in relation to the annual supply of Maples/ASEs/etc). Demand for all Pandas is growing, including the 2011s. As China continues to grow, the number of coin collectors is likely to grow also. As the RMB/Yuan appreciates against the USD, these coins become more affordable to the local Chinese. In short: All Pandas are likely to increase in price, more than mere spot rates too. (This has happened before, is happening now, and is likely to continue) 2011s are likely to appreciate too, much more than ASEs/Maples, etc, but obviously not as much as the older Pandas. As witnessed (again) in the recent drop in spots, Pandas have been divinely blessed with a significant advantage. When spot drops, their prices remain relatively unchanged (excluding the 2011s). But when spot increases, their prices increase. ... Just imagine you are given $1million dollars in the year 2001. (This is a conservative example, if I used 2000 stats, the results would be even more amazing) If you purchased ASEs at $5/oz (200,000oz), today you would have made about 6times your fiat ($30/oz; worth $6million).. but unfortunately your stack would still only be worth 200,000oz of silver. [Once again... bullion generally does not grow in value] If you purchase all 2001D Pandas at $6/oz (166,667oz), today you would have made more than 20times your fiat ($140/oz; worth $23,333,333).. AND your stack would be convertible for more than 777,777oz. [Once again... Pandas generally grow in value] ... Today is the year 2011, in ten years time, I can confidently say that one 2011 ASE will be worth the same amount as one 2021 ASE. (It has once again preserved value) However, in ten years time, I can confidently say that one 2011 Panda will be worth much more than one 2021 Panda. (Especially if China is the leading superpower or next major superpower by that time)
I admire your confidence, but past performance is no guarantee of future returns (to paraphrase countless investment advertisements). I expect China's economic 'miracle' over the past 10 years, more wealthy Chinese now, plus small mintages 10 years ago, has led to much higher prices for past pandas. How sure are you that same combination of events will occur again in the next 10 years?
I have a great amount of confidence that 2011 Pandas will be worth much more than 2021 Pandas. Panda's though sold as bullion, take on a numismatic premium very quickly after. This should be seen as self-evident, and can be historically verifiable. As mentioned above, 6million 1oz 2011 Pandas is still a very small number of Pandas being minted when you consider the size of the population and the worldwide demand for them. Pandas were appreciating even in the 80s when China wasn't as wealthy; a reasonable expectation is that as the nation continues to appreciate in wealth, so will the Pandas.
