Codan Ltd (CDA)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by finicky, Aug 7, 2012.

  1. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Any word on when a new model Gold machine will hit the market?

    Minelab's embargos on new products makes Perth Mint look like a leaking sieve.
     
  2. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Getting smashed after announcing record full year NPAT $45.4m. Share price down 20% less than an hour into trading and volume brisk. Record full year was as expected but the outlook is being rejected. Company offers visibility only for H1 FY14 which it predicts to match FY11 and FY12 of about $10-12m. If you take the mid case and duplicate that for H2, then guess NPAT $22m for FY14, then forward P/E was roughly 18 at yesterday's market capitalisation and a bit rich. Knock about 20% off for today's rout and P/E maybe 14-15? Still a bit rich unless you anticipate growth ahead

    Final dividend 7c, up from 5.5c (FY12)

    http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130822/pdf/42hv1vr3fgw9dw.pdf
     
  3. trew

    trew Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Wondered about the big fall but only had time for a quick glance at the report
    something about detector sales lower in the last 2 months of the FY caught my eye

    Missed buying in at the recent lows - still watching
     
  4. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That was already mentioned in the 14 June Trew and was the cause of the fall off the cliff back then.
    Quote 14 June:
    ^^^ So exactly confirmed today.

    Moderate case of NPAT $22m in FY14 still gives Return on Equity of 20% by my rough estimate

    The cause has to be in the outlook I suppose. Little visibility yet for H2. But after a couple of readings I can't see much that's too subdued in the further outlook, even sounds mildly upbeat in the medium term for detector and radio divisions.

    E.G.

    Detectors:

    FY13 .... small-scale gold mining market. With strong business development activities now occurring in a number of
    countries across Africa, Central and Latin America, and Asia, Minelab is well placed
    to continue with the medium-term development of this gold mining segment.


    ---------------------------

    In addition to the sale of gold detectors into Africa, Minelab continues to sell metal
    detectors into the developed world economies of Australia, United States, Europe
    and Asia. This part of the Minelab business represents approximately one third of
    Minelab sales and has achieved strong and steady growth in recent years.


    Minelab continues to invest in growing this consumer market, and excellent progress
    has been made with large retail chains across the globe to have them carry and
    promote our metal detectors to their customers.



    Radio Division:

    Daniels acquisition
    ... significant progress in integrating the new Land Mobile Radio (LMR) business and are now leveraging off
    our international distribution network, which is expected to result in an expansion of
    our sales into new international markets


    --------------------------

    recent renewal of our contracts with all of the major UN agencies has positioned
    us as the radio of choice for humanitarian operations and, given the current level of
    political instability in Africa, has seen this segment of our business grow during the
    past 12 months, partially offsetting the delays experienced with major project awards
    in our security and military markets.

    ---------------------------

    Following its launch in June 2012, the new Envoy software-defined radio has
    received strong support from the humanitarian, security and public safety markets,
    after the delivery of products for acceptance testing. Sales continue to grow for
    Envoy


    http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CDA&E=ASX&N=751042
     
  5. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Well at least its having a firm bounce right at the level a holder would hope - 1.75 has been recent resistance become support. Otherwise down to 1.50 looks likely

    Not reading much into it but Comsec has an update on the CDA page today:
    SPOTLIGHT ON CDA
    Morningstar Consensus: Upgrade to Strong Buy from Moderate Buy on 23/08/2013.


    Someone over at HC ( gordon_gecko) was yesterday quoting one of the few analysts for CDA. Analyst's saying that he still reckons it'll earn 27c a share for FY15 (only 21c FY14), but will review his guidance after he's spoken with management about results/outlook.

    Got to be worth a small growth premium if .27 eps becomes widely expected for FY15. Still should pay maybe 10 cps full div for flat FY14 = +5% ff yield for the wait. Plus buying before 6th Sept would get the 7c final div for FY13 as well.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    price drop then a measured move, same drop out the other end, gold and silver did the same thing in april. Lots of shooting star candlesticks warning of buy pressure coming unglued.
    Much more sell volumes than buy volumes, and you had a divergence in the relative strength which couldnt get above 60 - bearish IMO
     
  7. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^^^
    Perfect
     
  8. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Looks like you are heading for 1.20, a few hammer candlesticks there representing significant bottoms
     
  9. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  10. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So what's your call on this again SS?
    Ex ff div now, so just wondering where to set stop profit loss
     
  11. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    dude that was ages ago,.... im not monitoring the codan chart daily
     
  12. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    "ages ago" - but I read it as after lunch 23rd Aug, or about 7 weeks ago, and at same time you said,

    But since then the price has not gone lower, it's at least 6c higher and the stock has paid a 7c dividend, so I think it's fair to ask if you now think your confident call was wrong or do you maintain it? I might have been influenced by the confidence of your call, so I want to know if I can now dismiss it or should still take your confident call into account? :)

    I've admitted I've been wrong on a few 'TA' calls here (IMD, could be TLS soon) so what I'm looking for from you sanchez is a departure from your tone of knowingness.
     
  13. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    it hasnt taken out the highs (after the fall)
    If you remember ages ago i said 1.50 looks like a good entry point, and when it didnt break below that - you should know price action is the no.1 indicator. So maybe your expecting too much
     
  14. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^^^ You 2 crack me up and are one of the reasons I don't currently own mining shares.

    Better off buying a detector...loads of fun and you meet really nice people too. Resale value holds very well for the GPX range and they often provide wonderful ROI. :D

    (The above is not intended as investment advice) :p
     
  15. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    "ages ago" again.

    I wasn't expecting anything at all at the time you posted. It was plainly you who were expecting something, and that something has not materialised.

    This wasn't what you were stating at all, either directly or by implication. What you were stating boiled down to a target of 1.20

    You have such a low appetite for the truth of a matter.

    You clearly were predicting an imminent price decline (pre the ex dividend date 09/09/2013) and it hasn't happened, and now you're weaseling out of it. You would have been here gloating like buggery if by some miracle you were right for f*kg once.

    Unless you reconfirm your call now you were wrong holy man. Waffling and weaseling
     
  16. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    im not responding any further to this, i really dont care
    You keep picking fights with me. Im done with you
     
  17. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Explination of why Finiky is being unreasonable

    [​IMG]
    More stupid evidence
    [​IMG]
     
  18. SilverSanchez

    SilverSanchez Active Member

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    Actually my comment was made closer to the second long red candlestick



    Finiky you forgot to read me....
     
  19. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I have my doubts that these annotated charts are your own SS. I suspect you're being fed and have ever since they cropped up on the CAS thread.
    Since you've elected in an unchristian way to resort to invective, I'll reciprocate that I too hold you in low esteem.
    As to your quite possibly borrowed chart annotations, I'm confident they will prove dishonestly revisionist as before - I'll be back, lol

    "The truth is a pathless land and you cannot approach it by any path whatsoever, by any religion, by any sect"
     
  20. finicky

    finicky Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Here is a daily chart and SS's comment was made at 23 August.

    [​IMG]

    Here is his annotated chart and he now seems to claim that his comment and prediction was made 3 months earlier in May

    [​IMG]
     

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