The next few weeks are going to be very interesting indeed. The short term confidence is shaky. The longer term confidence is overwhelming :lol:
Just talking about the last day.Silver fell 3%,gold 1.5% I think silvers Industral use will cause it to fall more than Gold. Now , you know Silver has good fundamentals but the average fellow knows nothing about this.Nor does he know about its Flight to safety use. Psychology is 80% of the market. They know about gold in hard times. After a large fall,maybe it will be easy to buy silver at low premiums. There was a 1kg bar for sale for a while on SS at spot recently! Before the market was hard core but many newcomers bought when it leapt. People have bought at $45 and above.Many will panic. Many people on the forum who want it too fall to buy,will Sh.t themselves when it crashs.Many have negligible cash anyway. Talk is cheaper than guts.I know,guts is not something I've got,that why I'm into gold.Can sleep at night. So I may not make the same money you make when the wheel stops,but I don't think I can lose as much either. Silver might make you a great deal,agreed. I hope it does. But Golds a safer bet. And I'll have that drink.
For those investing primarily in gold, I'd like to recommend Ashvin Pandurangi's five-series of articles on gold at The Automatic Earth. He rebuts FOFOA's arguments for Freegold and hyperinflation really well and tempers the enthusiasm for gold, however, he doesn't advise against gold per se. Read the last part here: http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/06/june-25-2011-future-of-physical-gold.html A few excerpts: We could even see several large institutions, such as central banks and governments in Asia, Europe or Japan, flood the markets with (sell) a portion of their gold holdings to temporarily relieve pressure from their dire private and public funding situations. The sheer momentum of financial capitalism will lead them to conduct their "re-capitalization" efforts through established fiat currency and debt mechanisms, rather than through an ongoing revaluation/monetization of gold by central banks such as the ECB. ... Gold may benefit a bit from capital flight out of Euro-based holdings over the next few months or year, but it will be difficult for it to maintain any marginal increases in value as financial contagion spreads and massive debt obligations come due. The latter are typically not payable in physical gold due to the system's evolutionary design, and so it will merely serve as a temporary and relatively illiquid repository of wealth for many investors. The debt-dollar system of "cash" and liquid bonds, on the other hand, will greatly benefit from capital flight, and that will also serve to suppress the value of gold on international exchanges. ... It is also true that communities in the developed world have significantly less ability to sustain themselves through local food production, water procurement/treatment (more negatively impacted by shortages and impurities), efficient energy utilization, cooperative organization, ethnic/racial tolerance, etc. All of these physical, political and social deficiencies make it more likely that people will need to engage in extensive and reliable (trusted) trade to procure the things they need to survive, protect existing wealth and maintain bearable standards of living after HI occurs. Once again, this fact speaks volumes for the value of both physical gold and physical silver in the future. On the other hand, locations with a lengthy history of gold or silver-backed currencies may find themselves re-instituting those monetary systems in the future at relatively smaller scales. States in the Indian sub-continent are a good example of those which may adopt a "gold standard" as the Rupee falls apart, and that would mean holders of gold are likely to gain a considerable increase in purchasing power. Alternatively, communities in Latin America may have a stronger affinity for silver-backing due to their historical paths of economic development. It is also possible that bimetallic currency standards are adopted at relatively small scales of organization in some parts of these regions. ... Instead of hoarding physical gold for purposes of securing wealth or trading in a hyperinflationary environment, then, one may be better served by skipping directly to physical preparations that satisfy such needs. That is especially true in the developed world, where a relatively liquid and available means of exchange still exists and critical supplies are still somewhat affordable, but where self-sufficiency also requires a lot of effort. Once you are comfortable with your specific level of preparation, then you should begin looking for places to store excess currency wealth long-term. There is little doubt in my mind that physical gold is the place that generally towers above all others.
a simple question to ask, do you want to be a buyer or a seller right NOW. then buy while sellers are still available. if the price do drop further, seller may dis-appear again like back in 2008. (physical bars/coins) for paper the strategy may be played a bit differently.
Even if spot silver falls below $25 which I cant see myself - I cannot see the physical price falling much. The dealers will either close shop or put up premiums. I have not seen any let up in the prices on Ebay and that represents the world market and world opinion. As someone said - price has everything to do with psychology and how the world is thinking and I get the feeling that the world sentiment is very much pessimistic about the future. More people today are aware about how to buy and store precious metals to preserve wealth due to the internet and lets face it, not many can afford an ounce of gold! The poorer people will turn to silver. If it drops to or below $30 I will be buying more, if I can!
Everyone seems spooked but from my understanding you dont lose or make $1 in fiat until you sell or buy your PM. What happend to sit tight and hold your position and wait this out. The trend will turn in a few months and will have no problem selling any silver 1kg or 100oz bars. If you had faith in metals for years now, has a few weeks of price reversal changed your long held belief? If so that is not much of a conviction. With gold that reversal is pretty minimal. In the financial world nothing has changed, nothing has been fixed and much much worse news is to come. Tweaking a terminal fiat system by BB or his goons (TG) will cause a sudden jolt as you expect when appling the paddles to a patient with cardiac arrest - but unlike the movies the usual course is that death soon follows. Each charge produces smaller and smaller results.
I second and third that. I don't know why so many people are easily shaken. Is it that they didn't understand the fundamentals in the first place, or that they don't understand the fundamentals of the present and temporary deflationary situation which must be followed by more stimulus? Everybody should know here that metals pull back at the beginning of a contraction, but eventually fare well as far as purchasing power in a deflation. But that is not what we will ultimately be facing; you cannot create the types of currency bases central banks have been making and not have a currency crisis. That's when metals do their very best, in particular silver. We need people to be writing more articles about silver's fundamentals as well as make more videos on this subject, just like the good old days. Man the fort, men...
I agree, though, bad news means cash moves back to the USD, this has a negative effect for gold/silver and every other commodity price on earth. Gold maybe less so. This is the traditional response. I feel this is slowly changing (for good reason) and more people are now moving to the franc as a safe haven, but old habits die hard. A drop in price doesn't necessarily mean silver investors are spooked, or even that silver is weaker than it was a week ago, it can just mean the dollar is gaining strength and you have to accept its implications. Global markets are larger than Pm's ever will be. 5 day US dollar index Source: ino.com
Thanks for the reply. It was the 1510 that threw me off. That was an important technical level. that had already been broken. I lightened up Friday morning as soon as the 1510 level was breached.
Dear hobo-jo Faith is what drives us as human beings. I said faith, not blind faith. I have based my faith on history and every time countries debase their currency by printing fiat, gold and silver have retained value. It is like having faith that your car will start in the morning as it has for the past 2 years or in my case 6 years. One morning it may not - that is the risk. But based on past events I have utmost faith that central banks and our fickle governments will continue printing fiat money and so ultimately gold and silver will appreciate in terms of dollars. I disagree about a trend reversal. The trend is up. We are witness to a correction not a negative trend. Look at the past 10 years was it always up - of course not. Silver corrected 35% it is still now worth in dollars a lot more than what I paid in 2006 or 2007 or 2008.
The Asians see a correction in the price of silver as a buying opportunity. That says it all! Watch for the next big down turn and see if India and china buy physical in large amounts again as I think they will ultimately be the leaders in this market. Paper trading is governing the spot price at the moment (which is good for us buying on the dips!) but it will not be that way for ever.
Price is likely to drop further - but how much? no one knows... My thought is the price can't drop a great deal more with the dumping of bonds and buying of PM's. The reason why you invested in PM's is closer than you think. Just look at US debt ceiling,Greece and Euro,House prices,etc...everything wreaks future inflation or massive stimulis... My bet is 15% chance down to 85% up - might get burnt? sure but can ride that loss...can't ride missing out because of a few bucks difference in the spot. remember the physical price is decoupling from the paper price. You can show me a spot of $22 but find an ounce which isn't 40% over priced..
As I haven't been following silver as long as some on here I was wondering if anyone has come up with a graph showing spot price of silver over time against premium for physicsl silver over the same time period to see if there is a decoupling.
