Discussion in 'Silver' started by stellaconcepts, Jul 29, 2015.
Stella's back, baby!!!
Any thoughts on crypto since your time off?
could this be the turn? i say the turn will most definitely happen once the FED cowers again and says, 'um, well, scratch, scratch, um, maybe, well sort of...' we may think about raising rates, not in September, but maybe in Dec...no, actually, definitely in September, but the door is open for us to change our minds because its all data drive. What a bunch of BS. I'm with Peter Schiff, they will begin Q4 before the increase rates.
Investor sentiment for PM's is a strange thing. Many people think they got it pegged (think they know what causes higher or lower sentiment and why and exactly how much it will cause a drop or rise of the spot). Some assert the strength of the U.S. dollar is what causes PM prices to rise and fall to predictable levels. Others say the Fed's interest rates policy can forecast PM prices to a pinpoint. Others say the health of the stock market or whether or not there is some sort of military conflict brewing. Yet others say that futures trading of paper silver is the only thing for sure that can tell us.
All I know is I like silver; it's shiny!
Those are all big possibilities....just look at global derivatives.
me too. I really, really like the stuff. No, really. I love the stuff. I'm a hard 'money' guy. Now missing, don't go on a long rant about how these things ain't money any longer. lol.
What I dont understand is how come people were not stacking when silver was in the silver digits and gold in the 300-500s range. Everyone seemed to have gone hogwild when it went into the mid 20s and 30-40's I guess it had to be all those TV ads about buying PMs to protect your purchasing power commercials.
Because it didn't get to those levels until the end of the world is nigh was perceived as more likely than for many a decade and a lot of nervous people dived in as has always happened in such circumstances. Since then many (including myself) have been trying to catch a falling knife and have the cuts to show for it
Those few guys who bought in at $5 silver etc are savvy traders (I'm not including the shiny collectors who buy through their entire lives) with a handle on economics like few people with a heart beat and deserve to be ahead even if it has taken a knock of late. I know a couple like it and they are up there with any JP Morgan types I can tell you.
The smart people buy at a very different time than when the not so smart people buy. Why? Because they are not driven by fear and other emotions....they are driven by market dynamics and principle.
The only thing on the chart I'd change is to place the "Bull trap" at the point where "Return to normal" is because a bull trap is a spike up in a consolidating market.
^ Yes! Add lots of volatility indicators at every point along the way.
...or expand the gold/silver lines and put us in the 'despair' bucket, perhaps?
Gold and Silver were flatlined for a *long* time while the World was told how irrelevant they were; the current disconnects (there's a War, gold stays flat; there's a default, gold drops) smack of external control without necessarily getting the baking foil out and measuring your head size.
It took over 20 years from the 1980 silver high to get back to 50. and on an inflation adjusted basis those who paid 40s and 50s still have not broken even.
And the NASDAQ has only just gotten back to the highs it reached it 2000.
Those who bought Apple might be ahead but those who bought Cisco at the top are still down 70% and those who bought pets.com, well, they've moved on I guess.
That's the nature of bubble tops like PMs in 1980 and tech stocks in 2000 - it takes at least a generation to forget the mania
Still too early to buy... lower prices to come.
But who will sell?
It's a fractal, we are in both the bear trap and despair. There have been many instances in the past and will be in the future
People who need the cash will have no choice but to sell at these prices. Or people who think they can get better returns from other asset classes.
Still remember the mad rush/long queues when gold first fell from 1800 USD to 1600 USD (or something like that I can't recall).
I like the fractal bear trap theory.......
But back to the topic......"How bout that silver price eh!"
So How bout it?
You have gone from Buy.....to bye bye.....now back to buy? Or will you stand on the sides and not play due to a bye?
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