Bullion shortages coming

When does the material stock run out if the mines stop delivering?

 

Probably entirely dependent on demand

 

When the price goes up , of course !

 

I chanced on a Mike Maloney video again.

I think I might have mistakened Peter Schiff for Mike Maloney! So I've to take back what I said.

 

Quotes from pdf mentioned


We just want to close with one final point. When demand exceeds production capacity as it has these past weeks, there are only two ways it can be dealt with:

1. Put products on preorder and extend delivery times
2. Increase premiums

A lot of the shortage and price disconnect talk we have seen comes out of America because in most case dealers there go with option two. We understand why they do it, because they either buy from a master distributor or from a refinery/mint. When their stocks run low, they put premiums up because they don’t know if they will be able to get enough (or any) replacement stock as they are down the supply chain.

For ABC Bullion, we prefer option one and are doing our best to avoid premium increases on ABC Bullion products because:

• We have plenty of metal from our mining clients that is backed up waiting to get put into the automated bar machine.
• We feel it is un-Australian to limit product to only those who can afford to pay more – we’d rather deliver metal sequentially to orders as they were received as we want everyone to be able to protect their financial wealth with precious metals.

Overwhelmingly you agree with us, as we have had very few clients complain about products going on preorder and our extended delivery times. That means a lot to us, as it is a real vote of confidence by you in our business but it also reflects, we think, the Aussie sense of community and egalitarianism.


Still why I see the premium on a pre-ordered ABC kilo bar increased tp 100$, sorry words here doesnt match action

 

there is another way, extend the closure for another 4 more weeks
there will be short of supply for coins and small bars
there should be 1000 oz bars

 

Same deal for the Perth Mint.
Manufacturing time.
https://www.perthmint.com/covid19.aspx

 

If factories remain at capacity we will probably see less special release coins prioritised.. do you think we could see lunar premiums finally rise again over the next few years?

 

For sure, it happened many times during the Perth Mint Lunar series 2 coins.
https://www.perthmint.com/documents...nar Silver Bullion Series Two 2008 - 2019.pdf

 

We held off on premium increases as long as possible while others had, but with additional costs from overtime on running the refinery 24hrs a day, increased freight costs due to flight cancellations etc we had to up the premiums. The premium above our pool for 1kg silver is $47.20 and gold $75.

 

Big different in price from the two refiner dealers. But I'm not sure if Perth Mint are taking back orders?
Ainslie still have 10oz stacker bars in stock.

 

^
High prices = good news for us stackers!
After years of taunts from Court Jester, hopefully he will disappear from here for a while

 

I didn't hesitate buying on pre-order and allocated recently for that exact reason. Of all dealers that are most likely to delivery In this environment, ABC would have to be at the top. The increase in premiums is reasonable considering the environment that we're in. When ABC stops offering allocated and/or pre-orders - that's when things will start to really heat up in the physical markets here in Oz.

 

Jokes aside, I think if stackers here match the pre-order prices of ABC when they sell their physical, they should have no problems shifting their bullion.
I know which one I would prefer, waiting months for my bars or immediate delivery.
Whatever time frame you have been given for delivery, tack on an extra few weeks.

 

Good tip re-pricing. Would definitely pay ABC prices for immediate delivery vs the anxiety of pre-order.

 

Pre-order really?
I'd say that's not a good strategy.
Reminds me of folk in 2011 pre-ordering Perth Mint silver Lunar Dragons which they never received but they got their money back after a few months.
Do you really want to tie your money up with companies with a promise?
Have you not seen bullion dealers close trading for now; excellent dealers like XXX company still have closed doors.
Sure, X company may be highly regarded for their product and the staff are fantastic but you as a retail buyer are not privy to their business plan.

 

^
I remember that fiasco vividly.
Numerous assurances from my suppliers and their contacts at the Perth Mint that there would be no problems filling my orders.
I think I was lucky to source less than 2% of what I ordered!
You know what; I have never done business with the Perth Mint since that day!
I also changed my business model that day after getting my reputation trashed; I never sold anything again that I didn't have in stock!

 

If you think the prices are only going to rise and you want to lock in those prices now, sure, why not.
But in that case you are probably better off with unallocated or pool allocated.

 

It's not good strategy for specific individuals with certain positions. I am fine to have capital "tied up" and many others would be too. I have a reasonable amount of confidence that I will take delivery of my physical order in whole. ABC have their own refinery, so I think they're the safest bet when it comes to pre-orders. I managed to lock in at the spot price of $19.78 and $20.60 when I did my last big order.

I did a small pre-order of 5kgs from Bullion Now and my parcel was sent out yesterday (10 day delay).

I'm not concerned about the pre-orders I made. I'm more concerned about having money in the bank!