Boring Gold. Silver Threads. Golden Years

Discussion in 'Gold' started by JulieW, Dec 24, 2018.

  1. JulieW

    JulieW Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Courtesy of Peak Prosperity:


    Gold has been boring for years, lurking in what a friend calls “the Collum range . . . oh, about $1,200." (Figure 19). It will be tested during the next downturn and consequent stimulus effort, but until then I’ve largely stopped reading articles about why gold will tank or soar. If it hedged against monetary idiocy, I would be living on my own Island in the Caribbean.

    Occasionally, however, I stumble across a nugget. Gold dropped linearly from April to August (Figure 20). Maybe that's normal or maybe Bernie Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos is right: Linearity in finance is fraud. (A 21-day linear drop in silver was even more awesome.)

    Hedge funds went net short, suggesting correlation if not causation, possibly fueling the brief dip below $1,200. Evidence of horseplay appeared in the form of 260,000 futures contracts—$34 billion notional value—monkey-hammering gold in 4 hours in June. Nobody even blinks at these anymore, especially not the regulators. Of course, a couple of gold-rigging charges were made—one guy even admitted that it had been happening at the industrial scale for years—but they were disposable traders and got acquitted anyway.

    Canada’s Scotiabank will pay $800,000 to settle charges of “spoofing” (fake bidding). Wow. $800,000. HSBC has been caught four times rigging the price of gold, promising four times to never do it again.
    Reset?

    The debate about the future of gold in the global monetary system rages on among the 10 people who care. Craig Hemke (TF Metals Report) was early to notice an apparent pegging of the yuan to gold Could be true or just goldbug pareidolia; regardless, it seemed to end this fall. Canada sold every last ounce of sovereign gold by 2016, putting their holdings below those at the Bank of Dave.

    China, Russia, Poland, Hungary, Pakistan, Egypt, and Mongolia kept accruing the Bar-B-Qued relic. Hungary cranked its inventories 10-fold with an affiliated repatriation from foreign vaults. Turkey decided its gold was safer at the Istanbul Exchange than in JPM's vaults in New York.

    Rumors that Russia and China have outlined plans to create a 100% gold-backed currency system to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s dominant currency are wild speculation and provocative. They certainly trust gold more than the dollar-denominated global banking cartel.

    You really can’t put a value on gold (or eat it), but there are technical indicators suggestive of future price movements. The so-called speculators—the dumb money, whatever that means—went net short for the first time since the 2001 bottom, while the banks—the smart money (?)—went net long for the first time in history. We are parked at an all-time high of >500 claims against each ounce of gold at the COMEX vaults, which could leave some wondering who Madoff with their gold.
    Silver:
    Silver got pummeled a bit but, fortunately, nobody owns any (except me). The industrial demand keeps my relatively small position intact. Solar now consumes about 10% of annual silver production,ref 181 and silver is found in non-recoverable form in every electronic device. The gold–silver ratio has soared from 16:1 by weight in the ground to 80:1 by price in the market.ref 182 The notion that it should somehow price in proportion to supply is hotly debated, although the consumption of silver but not gold would logically give silver the relative boost in my opinion. JPM is said to control over 50% of the COMEX silver inventories—new-era Bunker Hunts or simply their clients’ silver.ref 183 For now, I watch with bemusement.

    https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114635/2018-year-review#gold
     
    Silver260, pi, Gresham's Law and 5 others like this.
  2. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    Ratio is 89.8 as of 04 June 2019.
    Trade wars are the start.
    Artificial Intelligence will be the key that unlocks gold.
    New space era will level the platinum electric car bump.
    Silver demand for robot components will be like when Dick Smith opened his first electronics shop for the DIY guy and gal. There's going to be a huge demand for DIY robots, just like the drone exponential growth.
    Computers might be getting smaller and architecture less than 7 atoms of gold but robots are going to be everywhere. Durability for expensive machines will be like the first CPU's chockers full of gold. Flexible electronic components such as silver and gold to make them.
    Silver-based batteries are very suited to robot construction, safer, higher voltages.
    Huge demand for electronic components.
    Real chance of AI determining the market outcomes, making today's algorithms look silly.
    Real chance of AI conflict and chaos / civil unrest.

    Downside
    Real chance of asteroid capture for precious metals.
    AI could crack how to make gold or sense high grade ore bodies yet to be discovered.
    Real chance of robot mine workers controlling production.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2019
  3. ParanoidAndroid

    ParanoidAndroid Well-Known Member

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    How about Graphene? Won't that make all these highly conductive industrial metals obsolete?
     
  4. dragafem

    dragafem Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    hmmm...holdfast is back:D
     
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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Lithium batteries are a huge problem. My laptop battery lasted more than 4 hours 4 years ago and now it barely works for 1 hour. I haven’t got an electric car so I don’t know how Long their batteries can last but I can imagine that even a 20% reduction in performance over 4 years is going to suck big time and these batteries are not cheap to get replaced.
     
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  6. sctpc

    sctpc Active Member

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    That really depends on how and what there made for, (they are not all made equal) my Prius has 10+ year batteries yet the Camry has about 3 years there a different type, Tesla has done tests on there first Model S and they are over 90% still. But thats the problem is knowing whats what and whats best for the application you intend, so no Battery will be the best for every purpose.
     
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  7. Greyman

    Greyman Member Silver Stacker

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    Graphene is a replacement for silicon in IC's - not so much the connectors or circuit traces. Industrial use of metals is not slowing down any time soon.
     
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  8. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Gold
    197x $132 reference
    198x $418 +216%
    199x $3515 +165%
    200x $563 +325%
    201x $1434 +982%

    Silver
    197x $5 reference
    198x $8 +51%
    199x $5 -10%
    200x $9 +64%
    201x $22 +389%

    Decade average prices.
    Golds current price is still historically high, likely due to governments buying this decade instead of selling the previous decades.
    Silver is abit more "normal" priced.
    House prices may serve as a reference to judge.
    A house here sixfolded since 197x
     
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  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Gold is very much sought after in Asia as marriage gifts but fashion wise I’m seeing a significant shift towards silver coloured gold - white gold - among Generation Y and the millennials, at least in Singapore. I have a gold wedding band which I don’t even wear after 2 years. I’ll probably continue wearing it had I bought platinum bands instead but platinum rings cost nearly double at that time. It is mind boggling how platinum bands can cost more when platinum is so cheap today. Don’t mention white gold, I just find it silly to bleach gold.
     
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  10. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    As I see things, it's like this (maybe) :D
    If the major crypto currencies maintain a high price and there is a sell off of the equity markets, most folk won't be able to afford cryptos like bitcoin.
    If they can't afford bitcoin, or are too scared to buy bitcoin, they'll buy gold which they know is a traditional safe haven.
    If they can't afford gold, they'll buy silver.
    If artificial intelligence screws over the crypto currencies (Meaning, a company (Banks) or government has the power to steal or manipulate cryptos), folk will turn to gold and silver.
    For Aussies, our dollar is trending lower, if silver drops back to prices similar to 12 Nov 2018 - AUD vs USD 0.7226 there could be a very good buying opportunity, having said that, if the AUD trends lower against the USD, silver prices maybe a buying opportunity sooner than later. If the AUD does have rebound, I think a few ounces couldn't hurt, especially at the trending silver to gold ratio which is quite high.
     
  11. mrsilverservice

    mrsilverservice Well-Known Member

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    The first thing that popped into my mind when reading this thread is that the writer doesn't own any gold or very little gold :(

    Note - Gold $1915.67 = Record Gold :p

    Boring Gold - No :)

    Boring People - Yes :D
     
  12. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    Well done, you are wrong on all counts! :D
     
  13. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    Boring Gold :D
     
  14. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    Still bored with Gold?
    During the fall / winter 2020, in the USA, from September 23 to December 23, you'll see a gold price that will leave you breathless.
     
  15. dragafem

    dragafem Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    and he is back again :) any explanation for your above comment?
     
  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member

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    Sure!
    I anticipate the US markets will teeter along for 6 months during their spring and summer. The virus won't have it's full affect until late fall / mid winter, so during that time (Winter) most folks immune systems are at their lowest, hence the Northern and Southern flu seasons which are directly related to exposure to UVB. UVB on the skin allows the body to produce vitamin D which directly influences the immune system. The USA will feel the full brunt of the virus at that time (Northern Hemisphere Flu Season) and of course, there is a very probable outcome of their supply chain, medical and banking systems crashing.
    I think you'll see the markets crash in winter 2020 (our summer - Southern Hemisphere)
    The Chinese outbreak, late Dec 2019 (winter) was at the end of their flu season but I suspect they'll get another huge round of infections at the same time as the USA. Shipping, Air and rail will have huge delays, bankruptcies will be very concerning and since the USA has no way of stimulating their economy (They can't drop interest rates lower) The Chinese debt is huge, their banking system is fragile but they do have gold.
    Do you see where I'm going with this?
    Many companies have a "just-In-Time" logistical procedures which means, if they can't get their goods, they are screwed.
    The banks will have a huge amount of toxic debt, many banks will fold and with-it many depositors savings. I also suspect a bank run in the lead-up to a gold spike.
     
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