Bank Runs

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Oct 20, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Buying food with facial recognition is humiliatingly Orwellian, but people will simply believe "it's modern, it's fun, it's practical".
     
  2. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    yes, money fleeing HK and China to Singapore depressing bank deposit rates. Not good for savers.

    Singapore is the ultimate banking safe haven for Asia, was in 1998 and is the same case today.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    sgbuyer,

    Do you see many people literally fleeting HK (especially now), as well as mainland China in order to find a "safe haven" in Singapore?

    I know money is "fleeing", many sources have stated that. But do people also flee? For someone whose mother tongue is Cantonese or Mandarin, Singapore could be a "newly found paradise" :D
     
  4. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ^ the UK would be a natural safe haven for many Hong Kong people, Australia too to a lesser extent.

    We should take steps now to lower the barriers for people fleeing from Hong Kong to enter Australia, even if it’s temporary. And maybe the poor white Sth Africans should have their case back in the media while we’re at it.
     
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  5. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There are more than half a million PRC in Singapore and negligible numbers of Cantonese speakers over here, the system in Singapore is much stricter than in any Han Chinese city. The HK people won’t be able to get used to the Singapore system if they are fleeing China to begin with.

    There are plenty of news but 80% are propaganda. I prefer to use anecdotal evidence and since one of my term deposit interest has been cut by 1% I know the banking has been flooded with new funds.
     
  6. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    thought they already set up this route back in 1997, many people from HK apply for PR and have bank accounts etc, so with just a click they have their funds in SG
     
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  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    now people use the self check in to board planes, truly can not be avoided
    thumb up and its paid
     
  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    I can imagine thousands would love to move out of HK now. And as events will continue, more and more will want to leave.
    Singapore, will be among the top target destinations.

    I can imagine Australia, Malaysia, Thailand being a few others. For the richer class, at least.

    If a major banking sector collapse happens, then it's hard to imagine HK survive in all its splendor. But, don't you think Singapore can also be heavily affected by a financial crisis?

    I've seen Greece during crisis on location (yes, I've been there, have seen the slumish streets, the riot police etc.). But Greece has land, has some agriculture, fishing.

    It's hard to imagine what Singapore could do if it loses the financial sector. Imagine the 3rd sector of the economy in collapse...
     
  9. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    There was a financial crisis in South east Asia in 1997, although if you’re in Singapore, you don’t feel any crisis except people who played property got burned as home prices crashed.

    It was actually more than a financial crisis because thousands of ethnic Chinese were killed in Indonesia. Many fled to Singapore. Because of the high income disparity and corruption, a financial crisis in Asia will become a political and social crisis. people have become overly cautious and I doubt there will be a repeat of such a crisis in South East Asia at least. Many of the politicians that are in power then are still around today.

    The Singapore government is so paranoid of a financial crisis that they introduced the first property speculation curbs in 2012 - when the world had barely recovered from the 2008 US financial crisis. Since then, new curbs have been imposed every year so we just had the 7th measure imposed early this year.

    HK was also badly hit by the 1997 financial crisis, property prices dropped by more than half. I’ve no doubt that HK will eventually survive this crisis even if it will take a longer time. If the trade war continues into 2020 and pops the HK property bubble, the Chinese property bubble will follow and HK will find itself become the safe haven for the rich Chinese instead. The situation can change very quickly. Why do you think the CCP is so cautious with the situation in HK? Because it is the place they themselves need to flee to if SHTF.

    In the worst case SHTF scenario, Singapore banks could still get repo funding from the Fed.

    [​IMG]

    Compare this with Australia.

    [​IMG]

    And HK.

    [​IMG]

    Beijing...

    Prices in Singapore barely increased 1 fold since 2000, whereas in Beijing, prices went up 9 folds (based on real prices, if nominal maybe 15 folds?).

    [​IMG]

    This is for LA.

    [​IMG]

    The actual price/income ratio in Singapore is less than 10 because the majority of citizens buy public housing.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2019
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  10. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Screen Shot 2019-11-16 at 11.40.52 am.png
     
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  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    That is amazing! If you see that kind of wealth transfer form HK to AU, it can help cope with 'Stralia's economic issues.

    One country goes bust, wealth gets transferred to another country.

    And if the transfer is sufficient enough, it can bring a strong boost to the receiving country's economy. Thus, the receiving country might as well avert/bypass/survive the coming collapse totally unharmed.

    I do believe that. Not everything will collapse. We will live in puzzle-type world, where some puzzles will rot away, others will burn to dust, some will shine like gold.

    Meaning, that due to regional disparities and different social-economical-political factors, some countries will in fact THRIVE!
     
  12. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe not.

    I may be because it's rumoured that during July the RBA secretly cashed up the banks, which encouraged them to lower their lending standards. I remember another member on this forum alerting us to it a couple of months ago.


    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2019/09/23/lending-restrictions-grattan/

    Now why would banks do that? Because their lolly bag was refilled? :cool:
     
  13. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Maybe no lending needs to be involved. The mere fact that many HK residents are moving to Australia helps the Australian economy:
    - wealth transfer: they sell what they have in HK in order to move to Australia (they come as investors wanting to buy)
    - they will (hopefully) work in Australia and will generate income to the 'Stralian state
    - they will consume, consume, consume in 'Stralia from now on, instead of HK

    I wonder how many of them are going to move.

    Some will move to Singapore, but obviously, there's very little space on the island county.
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Wake up, open your eyes, Jester! It is brewing... bank runs will happen
     
  15. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The space is actually not the major problem, but Singapore has a compulsory 2 year military service for boys even for PRs so this may put off the wealthy HK people.
     
  16. jultorsk

    jultorsk Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Yes correct, and I think those HK/Chinese inquiries were mentioned in the report in addition to local factors. I do not have the actual CS report, but the Guardian has written a long article about it.

    1. Loosened lending restrictions (credit)
    2. Increase in population
    3. Hong Kong

    https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ell-is-happening-to-australias-housing-market
     
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  17. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    2 years of compulsory military service is a very long time.

    But Singapore has relatively good/acceptable relations with nearby neighbors Indonesia and Malaysia. So, why so much emphasis on the military? I know Singapore has one of the most powerful militaries in Asia. But why?

    (don't count immense India and China, but even compared to Thailand, Vietnam and Australia or Japan, Singapore is very powerful...)

    The geostrategic position/the Malacca Straits? Protecting the strong economy and a major international port?
     
  18. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    What can you do if a bank run kicks in and can't take your money out?

    1) visit even the most hidden ATM's, like the ones in shopping centres, universities etc. and do this as early in the morning as possible 4 AM, 5 AM, if possible
    2) travel abroad and visit ATM's (Cypriots did that during their "bail in" horror)
    3) shop your money away online - buy bullion or, buy a new car... if you have funds
    4) ...any other ideas?
     

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