Discussion in 'Gold' started by openeyes, Jun 5, 2020.
It'll sky rocket in Nov, if trump wins 2nd term that is...
How crippling is a strong Aussie dollar right now? Would have thought stimulating export markets with cheaper aud would be better with high unemployment
Australia is China’s largest source of iron ore, accounting for 62% of the country’s imports.
The global iron ore market is extremely tight, analysts say, and China could not replace Australian imports easily or quickly. Production in China’s second largest supplier, Brazil, has plunged by a quarter because of the country’s Covid-19 outbreak.
*As China reboots steel production, you could expect Australian iron ore and coking coal to do well regardless of rise in the AUD.
*Perhaps if Brazil increases supply of iron ore to China, we could perhaps see the AUD fall.
*Remembering that China is the world's largest market for both photovoltaics and solar thermal energy. (Good for silver)
Australian Gold Exports
United Kingdom $11.99 billion
Hong Kong $4.1 billion
China $2.99 billion
That's why ScoMo and friends can afford bragging about China atm... bragging will stop once China has found another iron ore supplier
We need parity on the dollar to make it worthwhile... so ScoMo and friends can brag about US
AUD unemployment will be down to less than 2 digits this month after lockdown ease, eventhough recorded highest job loss.... just like the US!
No unemployment figures have been manipulated... just like US
Thanks for the analysis. How much of the Aus population benefits from this export if it is the key driver of dollar strength?
$1500.... "ahh guys theres no physical and the premium is a crazy 200% on the forum. I wont pay this premium"
So true spanner.
People buy for different reasons, I suppose, as you've mentioned, the customer crying is an example of someone
who thinks they going to make a quick buck.
As we have seen, gold turns around on a dime, so that buyer could be crying one day and smiling the next.
Other folk, keep their gold and never sell. Why? Maybe they want gold as a backup, just as some folk buy good productive land with water.
The gold flippers, we've seen plenty of that, but they are either short term or long term flippers.
Some collect, yes well, nothing better than a coin collection for some; they appreciate sometimes but there's the added advantage of numismatic gain and physical>.
Some buy gold on credit, crikey but then again, some folk buy stocks on credit, they love to tell of their wins but rarely their losses and
of course they look at their paper profits, watch them go up and down but don't realise they haven't made a profit until they sell.
Gold on the other hand, can be chucked in the drawer, forgotten about for years and years, you can get pissed, break a leg,
go blind, they can turn the electricity off, and you'll still have a lump of gold to buy a case of whisky or a huge steak and chips.
Best of all, you don't have to be pinned to a screen day trading or worrying.
Any way, the long term for gold has always been bright. "maybe"
Short term price fluctuations are not a thing to worry about unless .............................blah blah blah
Yes lowering the dollar for export reasons during financial hardship is something that has been done in the past by many countries.
the USA did that a few years back in an attempt to get manufacturing back up and running. It does have some side effects but it does work to some extent.
the other thing that can play a part is if the US starts printing money faster than we do our dollar can still climb, likely that is what is happening here.
That period where Our dollar was on par or above with the US did hurt Aus manufacturing and exports by a fair amount, partly the reason we dont have car manufacturers in this country any more
The Aussie is taking a bit of a dump right now, down about 1.2%, gold up to $2450.
Lets hope it is as constipated as some people are, and it goes down a lot further.
It will track up a bit more, iron ore is now 102+USD and Vale has closed down a couple more mines. Probably more closures to be announced as their covid situation worsens. They are not locking down so we can expect iron ore prices to be high, unless the FED experiment comes undone.
Quite frankly I think all this iron ore and copper stockpiling points to military preparations underway in China. Not sure if we should be selling at any price.
They are just waiting for the fool to become the US president. Even a child can see this.
China is biggest producer of cheap steel for the whole world. Plus they gotta keep their economy and debt bubble growing with construction of ghost cities. hence continued appetite for steel. So far they have struggled to get even one aircraft carrier built and working though they do have some nuclear subs running around, so probably not out to start any war.
Think China facing tariffs for their cheap steel. And think HK / Taiwan / potential domestic insurrection.
Agreed they do not have a blue-water navy equipped for war (yet).
During World War II the US used far in excess of 1 billion ounces of silver.
After the War, the US had a stockpile of over 2 billion ounces which they sold-off.
https://books.google.com.au/books?i...stockpiles sold off after world war 2&f=false
And put to good use
All About the United States Strategic Silver Stockpile
The United States keeps stockpiles of strategic materials. It is run by the "DLA (Defense Logistics Agency) Strategic Materials." Before July, 2010 it was run by the Defense National Stockpile Center; the stockpile itself is called the United States National Defense Stockpile. It was created after World War II to store critical strategic materials of national defense purposes. This helps ensure that the United States will have the materials it needs in the time of a crisis. You can also read an overview of the agency.
The Silver Strategic Stockpile (then called the Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpile) was formed in June, 1968, with a 'donation' of 165 million ounces of silver from the U.S. Treasury. 25.5 million ounces was removed in 1970, leaving 139.5 million ounces. It stayed at about that level through 1985, after which it declined each year until 2002 when it was all used up (the silver was sold to the Treasury for making Silver Eagles). As early as 1979 it was determined that the silver was not necessary, because "the probable wartime supply exceeds projected U.S. requirements" (Report By The Comptroller of the United States, 'National Defense Requirements For A Silver Stockpile', April 10, 1979). The silver was stored in West Point (49.4Moz) and San Francisco (90.1Moz) (same source).
One of my reasons for shifting to a higher silver proprotion was thinking about a sino cold war and munitions stockpiling. If it eventuated it would probably dwarf all other industrial demand.
Gold back to $2500 per ounce
I hope some nervous nellies did not sell during this drop, but I suspect some did.
Yesterday I notice that one my suppliers had a sovereign for sale at about $600.
I thought I would wait until today to buy it, but I am to late it is gone now.
If you snooze you lose, I should have known better, I have been in this game long enough.
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