If europe goes and we get a 2008 like moment, I would expect something similar, down to around 80c maybe. Otherwise, Id say floating around between 98 and 1.05
It's had what, two three tests to the down side with the on going situation in europe? Going to take something big to make it drop lower. Another QE style announcement somewhere could send it soaring.
The pollies keep saying that we have a strong dollar and a strong economy. But it's only strong when compared to the rest of the world. It's like saying you're in a strong position, when you're free falling off the top of a building and there's a fatter person falling faster than you. You're both fucked, just the fat guy will go squish harder and fast. And no, I'm not a physicist.
My project has a rate of 0.89 penned in by the economics guys for the next several years as the project rate. Bank hedging for the same time fluctuates but heads down to 0.90 over the next several years - in short they see it dropping but not fast or hard.
Hmm dunno, I was watching some footage this morning from late 2008 and the news then was very grim, U.S on the brink...... Europe in BIG trouble. Here we are over 3 years on and same old guff! I know its not great but we are all still here ... all still using fiat currencies... gold is much higher, silver is much higher.........I think the media has a lot to answer for!
I'd short the AUD against USD if I had to make some FX trades, but atm I'd rather sit on the fence. @_@
I know my logic is flawed, but I couldn't be bothered thinking of an analogy that didn't interfere with Newton's laws of physics.
This is unbelievable, my currency 5 years ago [AUD] was worth about $0.70 of an American dollar. I think that it is not because our economy is doing great but because of the inflation going on by the federal reserve.
Going off on a tangent, everyone who's ever learnt Newtonian mechanics has heard that two objects in the same gravity field, in a vacuum, would fail at the same speed regardless of mass/weight. Ever wanted to see it actually happen? [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDp1tiUsZw8[/youtube] This was a educational stunt from Apollo 15. Of course, if Galileo/Newton wasn't correct they wouldn't be on the surface of the moon.
