In July 2007 I made a prediction that the ASX would eventually fall below 3500 because of the sub prime debacle that was reported on the internet but ignored by the financial press world wide. I was posting on another site which will remain unnamed and I had one poster flame me with hell would freezer over before we saw it at that level. In Late october 2008 hell did freeze over. The combination of Sub prime AltA and Option Arms loans combined with the soverign debt and down grade of large bank credit worthiness is going to see well in excess of 100 moderate to large financial institutions fall over in the ensuing melt down I would like others on this site to look in their crystal ball and make your call on how low will the ASX go and what will occur out to 2015. My punt is Gold $6000 plus, Silver $1600. Property in Australia over that period will tread water because interest rates will go down to 3% Kind Regards non recourse
Oooo I like your prodictions, I hope you are very correct and live a long and happy life, I just hope it happens in the next 5yrs
ASX at 2500 no later than 30th of October 2011? hmmm possible but wouldn't like to bet an oz on that...she will drop for sure but that quickly? Thinking longer time frame like 9 months Ok a call for 2015? Au - $5k Ag - $350 Why more bearish to Ag than you call? 1:15 ratio would be the upper limit IMO by 2015. Saying this I'll call Au:Ag parity by 2025 based on Ag being the first element to become extinct on the periodic table. What will the price be in 2025? who knows but the numbers on Zimbarbie Dollars could be a good starting point
The only reason this ratio exists as the "historical ratio" is because Sir Isaac Newton made it up in about 1717 based on the commercial rate at the time. The United States adopted it in the early 1790s as well because everyone else was using it by that stage. There's nothing special about that ratio except that some dude just locked it in about 300 years ago and everyone else ran with it.
Actually the ratio was from natural abundance test's conducted,hence became the standard. Do you really think one of the greatest minds of all time would 'just make it up' purely on the commercial rate at the time? if so how was the 'commercial rate' calculated?
1:15 is an average historically of the below for majority of history - hence why I feel it's undervalued. http://survivetheflu.tripod.com/moneywise/id25.html "Abundance of Elements," silver occurs at 0.07 ppm and gold at 0.004 ppm in the earth's crust with a naturally occurring ratio is 17.5:1. Interesting - that's not far from the last monetary ratio 16:1 set when both gold and silver were still universal money in the last century Historical Ratios of the Price of Gold to the Price of Silver Menes (1st Egyptian Dynasty, 3100 BC) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 2 Croesus Mermnadae (561-546 BC) official gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 13 1/3 Augustus (Early Imperial Rome) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 12.50 Charlemagne (AD 781) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 12.00 Edward III (14th Century England gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 11.57 Jean le Bon (14th Century France) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 11.11 Spain 1500 massive silver supplies from the Western Hemisphere jump above ratio 1 to 13.0 China 1400 to 1600 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 5 rising to 1 to 8 Spain 1687 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 15.0 Isaac Newton (Royal Mint, 1717) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 15.21 Napolon Bonaparte (1803) gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 15.5 France's bimetallic system 1848 to1873 French legal ratio of 1 to 15.5 US Coinage Act of 1873 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 16.00 US 1876 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 18 US 1886 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 20 US 1900 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 33 US 1910 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 38 1930s Roosevelt forced China off the silver standard. Removing all that monetary demand for silver made it lose value against gold, industrial demand could not soak up the excess supply US 1941 for the first time in history, the ratio hit 1 to 100. US 1980 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 16.00 Late 2003 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 75 Mid 2004 gold/silver price ratio of 1 to 50 to 1 to 70 January 2006 gold/silver price ratio is about 1 to 60 June 2007 gold/silver price ratio is about 1 to 49
If your prediction comes true nonrecourse I will be able to pay off all my debts and have the cashflow to instantly retire comfortably....so 2015 Wouldn't mind retiring b4 I'm 35 Not holding my breath though
October has in the past been a very bad month in falls on the stock market so I've been told. Anyone care to enlighten me? Regards Errol43
where do you get your info, its like you take a snippet of fact and add your own perception to things
I dont know if i want to live in a world where Gold and Silver are that high.... that means ..... I dont even want to think about what state the world would be in...
Proclamation of George I, 22nd December 1717. United States Coinage Act (1792). Its reasonably easy to find the texts online. The background behind it was that with gold and silver being used in circulating currency there was an arbitrage problem where people would take one metal from a country where is wasn't valued as highly as the other (silver from Spain for example) and exchange it at market rates for the other metal (say, gold from England), then take it back, exchange it again for the first metal and make a profit. That's fine when you're doing it with raw commodities but it screws things up good and proper when you're doing it with coins people need to transact business in. Newton fixed things by just permanently locking in a particular exchange rate. It made things easier for international trade and nobody wanted to pick a fight with Great Britain about it anyway on account of Great Britain being able to whack them either in the hip-pocket or on the battlefield. That's the "historical gold to silver ratio" story in a nutshell.
Come on have a stab. Where will the ASX low be in October 3900,3500,3000,2500, or gulp lower Also the price of Ag & Au out to 2015 please. This week should be an interesting week. Kind Regards non recourse
ASX200 peaked at 6740 in October 2007 then reached a bottom at 3145 in March 2009 (~17 month period) In April 2010 it hit 4984 moved sideways for a year and now currently at 3900 (~17 month period) I don't own a single share but thinking about this genuinely makes me feel sick.
I think we could hit a house/asx ratio equal to 190-210, house/gold ratio of 180-200, house/silver ratio of 6500-9000 based on historical charts in Australia 1900 onwards. So, Assuming sydney average house price= $650,000, then ASX = 3100 to 3400, Gold = $3250 to $3600, Silver = $70 to $100 Getting a situation of house prices staying flat, and one ouce of gold buying 3 times the ASX would be outside anything that has happened since 1900's, not impossible but I would expect it will only last for a very, very short period of time. If it happens buy the ASX with both hands.......
