ASX All Ords Gold Index (XGD)

Discussion in 'Stocks & Derivatives' started by scott_reeve, Dec 26, 2017.

  1. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    All Ords Gold Index (XGD) chart looking more promising after a pretty lacklustre 2017.
    * About 50% of Index weighting is NCM, with Top10 over 90% of Index.

    - NCM in a wedge and will need to decide whether to break Resistance or Support sometime over next few weeks.
    - EVN currently at a Resistance crunch point.
    - NST had a pretty good year, creating new all time highs recently.
    - SBM been moving very nicely since breaking Resistance in mid-November.
    - Interest in some of the junior gold stocks heating up a bit in recent months. NST taking 80million shares in EAR. DRG shareprice moving quite strongly. KIN securing funding package with Sprott to advance its W.A. project.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. harry_mr

    harry_mr Active Member

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    That's a great chart thanks for the post.
     
  3. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Thanks Harry.

    XGD is now just over 5000. USD gold has been up for about 14 days in a row now. I think shortly there will be a pullback to re-test US$1300, which means a test of 4900 on XGD (pink down arrow on chart above).
    [​IMG]

    Who knows, gold does have momentum right now and many of the ASX gold stocks are looking the best they have in 12 months.
     
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  4. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    US gold still holding above 1300 for the time being.

    XGD fell below 4900 Support yesterday (pink arrow phase in 1st chart). Many of the larger gold companies in a pullback mode. I suspect this will be a good buying opp in coming days. Gold/convential gold companies should continue doing well until at least mid-Februray. (I could be wrong of course).
     
  5. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    Thurs/Fri may have been it for this period of ASX gold stock pullbacks. Gold pushing higher to US1336 last night. XGD Index should be back above 4900 on Monday.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    XGD back above 4900. Looks like that pullback was brief.
    5054 would make a new XGD higher high in this bull trend.

    [​IMG]
    I'm still bullish gold stocks until at least mid-Feb.
     
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  7. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    update to first XGD weekly chart:
    [​IMG]

    XGD moving 2.8% on Thurs as gold pushed above US$1360. Daily chart making higher lows and higher highs.
     
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  8. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    XGD Index update. Index is heavily weighted to NCM & EVN & top 10 make up over 90% of weighting.
    XGD didn't quite get to 5550 (3 green arrows in previous charts), but the sector has performed well over the last 6-8 months.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    XGD seasonality chart (below) is a real eye-opener and supports something I've known for a while. ASX Gold stocks are usually good buys in November or December (eg. many bottomed by mid-Dec last year), however March through to end July are usually terrible. One explanation, by the time Chinese NY comes around (early-mid Feb), its time to get out of gold stocks for several months (this year was an exception for the leading gold stocks).

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    XGD chart update below:
    [​IMG]

    On my last chart (July 2018), XGD was on three key Support lines. Another test of 4565 was looking likely and this is what played out. XGD now in a strong Stage 2 bull run and back at a 5.5 year high (hitting above 6000 level last week).


    Reminder that mid-Feb (from Chinese NY) to August is usually a bad period for XGD stocks.
    [​IMG]
     
  11. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    * XGD hitting 6133 today.
    * Gold stocks making 52 wk highs today: NCM, AGG, AQG, CHN, DRM, RED, RRL, SBM SLR. Many other gold stocks made 52 wk highs within last 2 weeks.
    * The big commodity stocks like BHP, RIO, FMG making 52 wk highs as well today.

    AUD gold price near all-time highs, currently A$1879. Currently breaking above a 7.5 year Resistance line.

    [​IMG]
     
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  12. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    This AUD gold chart from early June (forgot to post):
    [​IMG]

    AUD gold went on to reach new all time high of A$2067/oz on 25 June 2019.

    My chart a couple of posts up (Feb 2019) alluded that there was a chance AUD gold price could break a 9-year long Resistance line. This is what played out, with AUD gold up over 12% so far this year.

    This is despite the usual seasonality where XGD gold stocks typically do bad between Chinese NY (mid-Feb) to end of June each year:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    XGD Index chart update:
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Bullion Baron

    Bullion Baron Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The XGD is looking very overbought right here (thinking about lightning up on some gold miners for the first time in 5 years). Here is a chart comparing decline and recovery of the XGD (AU gold miner index) vs HUI (US gold miner index).

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Silverthorn

    Silverthorn Well-Known Member

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    I've been thinking the same, SAR is now my largest holding by a noticeable amount, but the stars seemed to have aligned at the moment. Silver and the miners strength lately confirms for me that the cyclical bear is over. I will probably start selling some tiny amounts till I see which way things go and rebalance a bit.

    It feels to me we are more likely to see another pop than any significant retracement.

    Plus the shorts have been having a dig a SAR recently so I don't think it will get priced unreasonably. Tough call for me to sell much.
     
  15. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    * US gold US$1508/oz
    *
    AUD gold another new high last week A$2241/oz, +21.3% so far in 2019.

    [​IMG]

    XGD chart update:
    ASX gold stocks (XGD) reached an all time new high last week of 8730.

    [​IMG]

    Early signs to have gold stocks on watchlist was back in Dec 2018 - Feb 2019. A$ Gold broke 8.5 yr high in January 2019. Many mid-Large cap ASX gold stocks had multi-year Stage 1 (consolidation) charts, which broke into Stage 2 bull runs over last 6 months (many in May - early June). AQG is one good example.
     
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  16. scott_reeve

    scott_reeve Active Member

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    ASX Gold stocks end of 2019 update:

    AUD Gold price:
    [​IMG]

    As pointed out previously, Dec to mid-Feb each year usually provides a positive influence to ASX gold stocks.

    seasonality:
    [​IMG]

    Over the last 6 years, the XGD has provided on average a +27% return over the Dec-Feb periods.

    XGD Monthly chart:
    [​IMG]
     
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