So this guy draws a charting parallel between silver and the Nasdaq bust. He suspects that the silver market topped around 50 and is now a 'bull trap'. Bulls are starting to relax and it looks like we're on the way again but he implies it's all a big delusion. The price might even get as high as $38 then keel over into a capitulation selling plunge. He overlays the 1990s Nasdaq chart on the 2000s Silver chart and gives a view that they both conform to a template of bubble and bust. http://profitimes.com/free-articles/did-the-silver-bubble-burst/ Other related articles linked on the page are worth a look, e.g the gold:silver ratio plummet in 2010/11 that looks like the crash of the DOW in 2008. That article looks to have been published in April 2011 and he correctly predicted that gold:silver ratio would soon reverse mimicking the 2009 DJIA reversal, and that gold would then outperform silver.. Green line Silver Red line the 90s Nasdaq and aftermath Source:http://profitimes.com/free-articles/did-the-silver-bubble-burst/
They other thing to say is that parabolic charts shift as you extend the series out to further years. I once did three charts of the gold price extrapolating a simple "average" for the yearly gold price. What once looked parabolic flattened out the more you extend the series out.
It's not a 'correlation' as they are over two different time periods. But yeah, I agree with your sentiment.
And for those who have short memories ... there was a total mass-delusion (that I did not partake in!) in 1999 that somehow a "new business model" that meant it no longer mattered whether profit was made, would be sustainable. Retrospectively known as the dot com boom, the NASDAQ crash may have had a similar shape to the current silver pattern but I for one won't let that lead me to think there are any similarities in predictive elements. Kinda like correlating a hot air balloon to a wine glass due to the similarities in shape ... then predicting the wine in the wine glass will form a "dome" once it over-fills ... I'd recommend "Bad Science" by Ben Goldacre - it's an excellent read and helps to introduce more logic into arguments that are supported with "statistics" ... skeptics will love it http://www.badscience.net/
Ok, now this I can agree with, although I'm not sure it sinks his thesis. If you open the link in the first post and look at his x-axis, what he's done is compress the time scale for 9 years of silver to fit 4-5 blow-off years of Nasdaq. When you do that it makes the uplift of silver look more 'parabolic'. Another thing is that the Nasdaq 'bubble' lasted roughly 5 years from 1995, if you accept wikipedia's definition. Yet have look at the evolution of the Nasdaq in the chart below. You could argue that the Nasdaq bull started back 17 years earlier. By 1995 you already had a 7 bagger or so in the Nasdaq from 1978. That's before the parabolic stage he uses. What've we got in silver so far - a 6 bagger maybe? Source: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/nasdaq1978.html
well just to be clear, I was talking about extrapolating out to future years but if he had to tweak the charts to line up then it kinda negates his whole argument.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32581.html This person is a fool and a time waster. That was his 5 minutes of fame. Goodbye.
Yeap burst to $28 and reinflate to $38 :lol: Perhaps the similar tend in the charts reflect most bull markets or stocks?!? Think I could find 20 stocks which show similar patterns considering 'time' doesn't need to relate Sorry but thumbs down - rather see what Retard Monkey and Mr Squiggle think
As has already been mentioned, you can correlate just about anything by picking the right time periods and compressing the charts. Try overlaying the charts of both nasdaq and silver starting from, say, 1982. The nasdaq had a 18 year or so continuous bull run and then a final blow off. Silver has had pretty much a 20 year bear run and only recently gone into a bull run. Hardly the same thing.
