Are mining stocks signalling a short-term bottom in precious metals? The video below investigates what is currently happening to the mining shares by comparing the price action of Silver Wheaton (SLW), First Majestic Silver Corp (AG), Pan American Silver Corp (PAAS), and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9_swWshECo[/youtube]
Certainly is possible but I don't think the miners prices always foreshadow the metals prices predictably. There's no doubt in my mind while 2014's USD 14.XX may have been the bottom or close to the bottom of this bear market, the metals will be eventually heading slowly higher and it will be interesting to see if miners will again foreshadow the metal's spot prices. .
If they thought the price was a bottom then why were they hedging 36951 x 5000 = 185 Moz along the futures market on 6 januari at price $16.47 ? http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=d1 On 4 november, price $15.77, they hedged just 62 Moz. That's 1/3 of now. IShares sold 17 Moz since then so its price effect is just 1/10 of the amount hedged, so IShares wasn't the picture changer. It only changed the picture in the 2009-2011 years. Then it ceased to add, and fluctuated many times between 315 and 350 Moz.
Not a claim, simply answering your question. Obviously, you are implying my answer was wrong, yet you asked the question......? :/ Do you care to answer your own question? I'm looking forward to your priceless claim of manipulation. If they thought the price was a bottom then why were they hedging 36951 x 5000 = 185 Moz along the futures market on 6 januari at price $16.47 ?
Your second answer is as empty as your first. Words, versus position data. What is said, versus what is done. If people suggest others that the price is gonna explode, as to find suckers that take the counterside of their own opposite action (selling), then their lies are their words. My "priceless" answer is "they think that the price isn't a bottom". You are "looking forward" to what is right there. 06/01/2014 36951 $16.47 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 25404 Short 52243 Net: -26839 SwapDealer Long 33705 Short 43817 Net: -10112 ManagedMoney Long 40301 Short 20681 Net: 19620 OtherReportables Long 12339 Short 3323 Net: 9016 SmallTraders Long 22291 Short 13974 Net: 8317 04/11/2014 12408 $15.77 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 18989 Short 38021 Net: -19032 SwapDealer Long 37775 Short 31151 Net: 6624 ManagedMoney Long 42938 Short 44360 Net: -1422 OtherReportables Long 15150 Short 6786 Net: 8364 SmallTraders Long 24305 Short 18839 Net: 5466 Thanks Mate for encouraging me to write more posts and data! Waiting for $13.5 for a next addition to stack! The risk I take, based on the data and relations I learnt! I have patience! And I update when I see reason to! Not your blabla, but your boomboom!
Still didn't answer your question - just another claim of "what they think" And more meaningless cut & paste. My posts are quite cheap - if you'd read them you would have saved yourself around $15 per oz on your stack so far.
Your post again adds nothing. Your question is as stupid as asking which color yellow is. That's what I asked: A hedge is against risk. It's avoiding losses, and at the same time also avoiding eventual windfall gains. It's an attempt to have no price change exposure in a future trade. If the total hedged is increased (people taking more long/short positions), then it will drive up the spot price along arbitration because any difference between a forward price and spot provides free dollars, as to make the arbitration happen, the incentive for it. That's how the futures market works. That's where the dollars from the hedge ultimately origin from. During a rising price a long sees dollars added to his account, and a short sees them removed. But both sides have in the cash/spot market the counterposition that compensates for the lost, and gained, dollars on the futures position account. Just like a dealer can have a stock of 15000 ounces, intending to sell them over the coming period, and can hedge this stock against price drops along 3 futures short positions. If the price would rise instead, the dealer would lose dollars from his account for 3 short positions, but his stock will sell for more, and thus compensate for the loss on his futures account. This explains why the green trend and the spot price trend have a high tendency to move in the same direction, especially since later 2011, since the futures market became a / the big price driver. Before, the big purchases that created the Exchange Traded etc silver Funds, alike IShares Silver Trust, Sprott, ETF Securities US+UK, ZKB Silver and some smaller, were the prominent price driver. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1 Things have changed since, they ceased to add, they just hold (as of now) But their extra demand is gone, and the extra they had caused in the price, went with it. In the case silver, the futures hedge is typically 1/4 of the total annual traded supply/demand, which is big, and explains why the correlation is so prominent. For other markets that don't have such a big futures part, the correlation is much weaker. If there was a futures market of product A that has a total supply/demand of 1000 tonnes, then an average futures hedge of 10 tonnes will only have a single % price weight. So signals of short term bottom? Well, that would be a small hedge, and near to 40000 is NOT small, 50000 is a typical peak, 10000-20000 a typical bottom. This is all basic futures market stuff, and I don't explain this for you, Mister Internet Nobody with zero information and 999 troll posts, but for those whose dollars you're after, and the reason why you don't like to see this stuff explained. I have no problem explaining this, and other things, another 144 times. Reading your posts is like watching a television that is switched off: there is nothing to see. It's just void. Instead, I look at the positions of lazy butts like you, as indirectly reflected on the short term by the weekly published futures market position data. The CTFC publishes it for a reason. Finviz.com places it under every price chart for a reason. But people on silvers market can use some explanations in order to recognize it as one of the info pieces to determine stacking moments. Milking informed people is a tad harder. Good for the sport eh mister "Small Minded"? There, another "Question" to Answer!
Oh, hello! I forgot about this thread. I'm guessing that rant was your priceless claim of manipulation? Please don't, it will make you go blind. I'd rather you spend copious amounts of hours doing something you understand and can do well.... that way you might earn some sort of financial reward for your time.
A futures markets purpose is hedging against price changes caused by temporary buyers. The dollars from the hedge origin from these, since the position taking drives the price higher just like cash market purchases. Only that they already arrive during the price change, while for those on the cash market it only happens at the moment of trading. This way the forward share in the spot price thus stays, people in the cash market being inflicted a higher price during the hedges existence, until they dump the positions, usually after the hedgers sold their stocks in the cash market. So stacking when the forward share in the price is high, is always a bad idea. Of course, money for nothing clubbers care only about relative price changes, they'd buy at $10 if they think they can make people believe $14 so that they find some1 to sell at $13. And after that they try to make people believe $9, so that they can buy back in cheap at $10. The futures hedge on the silver market is now big. I'll wait till "it's over". In meantime the data gives me an idea of the "real" purchases/sales in the cash market. For example, if the price rises without the hedge rising too, then it means that there are more ounces purchases in the cash market. Or if the price stays, but the position rises, then it means that thereare more ounces sold in the cash market, so that seemingly 'stable' price isn't a supported price. And so on. I like to "rant" 'bout things that money for nothing clubbers rather prefer to keep within their curtained chat groups. So Sorry I do, Can't resist the Temptation!
I made a tidy profit on the AUD/USD trade today on the back of better than expected Australian job numbers. Money for nothing is my business and business is good
Your post is like a duck that barks. like a dog that quaks. That's what money for nothing clubbers do. Lazy butts, ordinary thieves, that want other peoples products and services, for their Nothing, damage, in return. They prefer people to act according to their mouth, rather than their actions, as reflected by market data. http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/other_lof.htm http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalViewable/index.htm http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1
