Are retail silver supplies drying up?

Discussion in 'Silver' started by fishduck, Mar 18, 2020.

  1. kilo

    kilo Active Member Silver Stacker

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    867 on GS (backorder mind you) plus 20 = 887

    Geez man you need to work on your spread :D
     
  2. kilo

    kilo Active Member Silver Stacker

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    That’s really the point I think, we call look and laugh at some of the prices around for the last few days.
    In reality if we wanted to increase our stack right now for what ever reason, 850-900$ would be the money many would be prepared to pay.
     
  3. black5wan

    black5wan Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Paper spot is totally disconnected from physical for atleast few months, no point of selling it if you can hold. Until current situation of COVID-19 peaks in USA, no way we can see silver or gold coming down.
     
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  4. black5wan

    black5wan Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Bullion dealers dried up, No supply for Perth mint in near future, vaults may also be unaccessable for next few months. if silver spot goes up 100% in this situation, how many would be able to make money here.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  5. hardyakkagold

    hardyakkagold Active Member

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    Only those of us who stacked while the sun was shining would be able to make money currently.
    If you cant hold it you dont truly own it.
    I remember going to the Mossgreen Auction here in Melbourne a few years ago and having the complete gold coins auction to myself
    no competition whatsoever!
    Purchased 20 nugget proof sets for about 40 grand back then, could get 100 grand plus now.
    Where was everybody? Getting rich on the stock market I bet!
     
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  6. black5wan

    black5wan Active Member Silver Stacker

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    How much buyer would pay now for a bar which is in locked vault for next few months????
     
  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
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  8. Alloy

    Alloy Member

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    You guys are going to lose a ton of money on premiums. You would've made pure profit the last few days if you had bought an ETF. If you bought retail physical you wouldn't be profiting at all.

    I think one of the underexposed realities of the last few years is that silver stackers lose a lot of money making bad decisions based on conspiracy theories and saviors. I'm tempted to do a formal study to measure how much money they've lost.
     
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  9. Aurora et luna

    Aurora et luna Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Checked my inbox this morning, one buyer has upped his offer to buy kilo bars at $845
    The rest are standing firm!
    He was one of my buyers that got let of the hook at $830 last week when spot plunged :p
     
  10. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I suppose everyone has different goals and trading strategies.
    Some play the paper game.
    Some borrow currency.
    Some use spare currency.
    Some don't care if they make a gain or loss depending on their tax position or if they forgo toys and holidays.
    Some are thinking 20 years in advance, some have time on their side, some not so.
    Some have the knowledge to trade paper silver, some do not.
    Some are happy to go on line to buy a chunk of silver, some are happy to walk into a bullion dealer.
    Some buy old bars, some buy new.
    Some buy old coins, some buy new.
    Some thinking a printing press produces money but it's currency.
    Some think that currency can't be revalued but as those folk who have purchased spec stocks, they often find that they have no say in when their 500,000 shares are revalued to 5,000 shares.
    Sure, we have had members here who purchased common, kilo bars and nothing else when the silver price scramble was on (2011 comes to mind),some paid 40 bucks+ per ounce and if they didn't sell, what did they loose, currency or their lump of silver.
    Each currency provides exchange outcomes relative to what Australian folk buy or hedge. We have seen, just how quickly the AUD can tank but physical silver didn't vanish, nor did the sell price decrease, it increased in currency terms.

    So, the trick with silver, or any precious metal, is perhaps not just say that one strategy is correct or that this an that is better. To say that just one way is the better way to increase ones currency can often slap one in the face.
    As we have seen with white outs, black-outs and freezing of trading, strategies / plans can come un-stuck. If, perhaps, electricity was turned off, folk can't trade; if banks are closed, you can't get your currency.

    Anyway, again, I've gone off track but what I'm suggesting is that, history doesn't lie and can be a pretty good guide.
    Diversification would seem to be the ticket.

    Best to everyone and best to all those folk who have a winning strategy; your outcomes are the best for you.
     
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  11. Aurora et luna

    Aurora et luna Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Currently their is a huge gulf between buyers and sellers in silver pricing.
    One customer of mine is offering to sell 20 x 1 kg bars @ $920 each
    He is in no hurry to sell and has left the offer open for a week.
    Btw I am not interested in doing any further trades for both buyers or sellers until this current crisis blows over.
    There is no safe place left in Sydney that's open to do face to face except in a car park.
    And social distancing is not possible inside a car!
    Happy to refer any offers that you may have to my buyers and sellers, however I am not going to be an agent any longer !
     
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  12. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    ABC Bullion now only offer kilo and 10oz bars on pre-order. Their product list is just a shadow of what it used to be:

    https://www.abcbullion.com.au/store/silver

    I suspect it won't be long before ABC offer nothing - not even their allocated. Even their high premium coins have sold out and are no longer listed...

    Paper spot price is becoming less relevant by the day.
     
  13. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    It’s still a false shortage if the only issue is that the mints can’t produce enough (another supply chain that minimises inventory buildup) but there is plenty of raw material from mines ready to be converted. I would trade based on following this closely. Maybe demand will continue as such that raw material is also consumed.

    It’s like our potato chip factory only being able to produce 10000 bags a day when the farmers have 10000000kgs of the things in their sheds. Once 5 more factories come online there is an instant glut
     
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  14. STKR

    STKR Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The silver market is so small. Annual mine supply at today's spot price only equates to about $13 billion USD. Less than half of that is actually available for investment - maybe more or less in a global lockdown, but silver is still used in the medical industry and electronics for essential services. That demand won't disappear.

    If stockpiles at refineries were large enough to meet excessive demand, I'd expect that dealers wouldn't have a reason to remove pre-ordered Bullion from their websites, especially the largest ones.

    I wonder if Australia has or will stop exporting PM's? Does anyone know if Perth mint or ABC make their own planchets/blanks for 1oz coins?
     
  15. Oddjob

    Oddjob Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Hellva premium on ASE's......if you can find them.

    upload_2020-3-28_12-13-42.png
     
  16. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Add to that:
    This is from Schiff:
    "NOTE: Due to extreme order volumes, please expect a shipping delay. Temporary minimum order in effect - 500oz Silver or 15oz Gold. More Info on purchasing."
    https://schiffgold.com/friday-gold-...ed-schiffgold-friday-gold-wrap-march-27-2020/

    BullionList
    Due to unprecedented demand for precious metals we are suspending trading until further notice.

    https://www.bullionlist.com.au/

    South Africa mines to shut in nation-wide lockdown
    "From midnight on Thursday 26 March until midnight Thursday 16 April, all South Africans will have to stay at home," Ramaphosa said.

    "This would be unprecedented in the history of mining in South Africa," Minerals Council South Africa CEO Roger Baxter told Bloomberg.

    Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO) said it would curtail production at Richards Bay Minerals in South Africa and it was "too early to speculate on when operations will resume or on 2020 production guidance".

    South Africa-based miners including Gold Fields and Harmony Gold Mining are yet to publicly comment on the lockdown.

    Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) had meanwhile said earlier yesterday it would significantly reduce the number of people at its US sites.

    Its US platinum group metals operations had been deemed a critical infrastructure industry, with PGMS used in many chemical, medical and biochemical applications, and the company said it would endeavour to maintain current production form its Stillwater and East Boulder mines.

    Sibanye-Stillwater employs about 80,000 people in three countries.

    South Africa's lockdown comes as the country's economy has slipped into recession again and an independent research organisation recently warned its mining sector could suffer "significant losses" if COVID-19 was not contained by April.
     
  17. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

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  18. pi

    pi Member Silver Stacker

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    You can’t even buy unallocated (pool allocated) at Goldstackers anymore. Their website has been down for 4 or 5 days now. They are difficult to get on the phone and when you finally get through, it’s someone working from home. They said I can redeem my holdings over the phone but I cannot buy anymore. I suspect they can’t get the physical to back it.
     
  19. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    lol.. premiums to the moon!
     
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  20. Jason1

    Jason1 Well-Known Member

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    yer agree, If you find a person who buys for those reasons you mention, you sell to them, not listen to them for financial advice. lol if they like losing money, supply them the goods lol.

    I am personally more into Physical than Paper, but I wouldnt be paying the current spread of physical. its crazy But i might sell a few bars if this continues lol
     

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