Are numismatics a good investment in bad times?

I guess I took your question more as a "are they still valuable when the SHTF" type scenario. My point was that yes they are still valuable as evidence by someone going to considerable effort to aquire them. You say stolen or acquired cheaply. I would argue that in both cases considerable effort and money were put in to aquire or protect these items - even to the point of costing lives. So yes - they were still very valuable even during an SHTF type scenario.

Saying that you might be able to aquire some numismatic item for spot is sort of like arguing you could get the Mona Lisa for the cost of the paint and canvas. I guess if it was a choice between selling it and keeping your life then maybe but even then - the person who had acquired it wouldn't on-sell it for the same cost. It would immediately be revalued far higher. Therefore it would be more of a co-ersive theft (is that a term?) rather than a sudden devaluing of the item.

Values of numismatic items do increase and decrease. I was talking to a guy the other day who was bemoaning the fact that a few years ago one of the big dealers aquired about a dozen 1930 pennies and flooded the market causing the price to fall from the mid $30 000s down to about $20 000ish. It also coincided with the GFC. The price is only now starting to return to pre crash levels. Would prices for 1930 pennies crash in a SHTF scenario? Probably they would come back quite a bit but I can guarantee not back to spot copper prices.

I guess my point is numismatics are the same as every other asset. Sometimes they go up to crazy prices and sometimes they are on sale at bargain prices.

But you are not buying PMs as an asset - rather as a way to ensure purchasing power during a SHTF scenario which is a totally different thing. Something that numismatics/shares/houses/most business and several other assets classes are not suited for.

malachii

 

Numismatics are not useful in a SHTF scenario, neither are other forms of investments such as houses, and neither are other hobbies such as vintage car collecting. Most people will not be concentrating on investing, most people will be trying to survive.

It would not be a great time to sell them, might be a good time to buy them if anyone is selling.

One of the main reasons people find roman hoards is that during times of SHTF people hid their valuables, including money, to stop them being stolen. If it all goes pear shaped I will be burying my numismatics as well.

If you want something to help you during a SHTF then numismatics is not that thing, but probably silver is not that thing either, or any precious metals, sorry to keep going on about beans but if you expect SHTF then this is what you need to stack for. You can then use that to barter or sell the cans for 1oz and make your fortune.

There is plenty of money to be made in numismatics, if you are blind to that then it makes no difference to anyone, it is not like you were about to buy a 1930 penny so no one has lost a sale, there are plenty of people who make money out of it, there are plenty of people who enjoy the hobby.

There are plenty of stackers who stack generic silver and numismatics, if you just narrow yourself to one area, and you chose to ignore numismatics, then the only time you are going to be better off than the rest of the people who have been doing this for years, is if the S really does HTF.

Let's say that the S does not HTF. Then people who have diversified are going to get a better return on their investment than you, and isn't it the investment side of things you are interested in?

Silver is a good way to protect your fiat from being inflated away into nothing. You spend your fiat on silver, in 20 years time when things are twice as expensive due to inflation, you sell your silver, get twice as much fiat than you paid for it and you can still buy the same things as you could 20 years ago. The same amount of fiat would have dwindled to half its purchasing power.

Numismatics on the other hand can increase in value if enough people want them, you just have to pick popular items. That's when the value can increase and it can truley become an investment, not just a store of wealth.

 

NO!

 

I'd say no, I think a stack of lumber, a barrel of whiskey, a few cartons of cigarettes, a tidy tank full of gas, or some solar panels will do a lot more for you in a full out crisis.

 

Good list, a few thoughts

stack of lumber - Perishable in Aus due to termites, non portable and hard to secure
barrel of whiskey - non-perishable, fungible, divisible, securable and fairly portable
cartons of cigarettes - Perishable ~ 1yr shelf life, portable, divisable, sorta fungible, almost a necessity for some
tidy tank full of gas - Perishable, 3mo petrol 6mo diesel shelf life, very much a necessity
solar panels - NOT portable, hard to secure. Need exy deep cycle batteries to be worth while.

Silver and gold are good because they are non-perishable, fungible, dividable, recognizable, securable, portable, compact

Problem with perishable stuff is you need to be fairly accurate with timing your purchase with the SHTF. Or else have a stack what you use and use what you stack to keep it all rotated (deep pantry concept)

 

Day-to-day living = necessities.
Buying your way out of the area where the bad times are located = pms.
Transporting your wealth out of the bad area = Numis.

For me, the 1oz gold coins would suffice both for buying my way out and transporting my wealth. Considering the ease of worldwide travel, most people in a SHTF situation, would have had ample warning and opportunity to leave and/or move most of their assets before any real danger arises. So anyone who expects the SHTF scenario to happen and plans to stay should be well stocked with necessities and have a means to defend them. But if you really believe a SHTF scenario is about to happen, why are you staying? Since, I am willing to leave, I don't stock near as many necessities as the average person who has my expectations of the future. Most of the necessities I have are for inflation protection vs.a SHTF scenario. Those provisions will buy me weeks, not years of survival. If I am in a SHTF situation for more than a few weeks, then I have made some serious mistakes.

 

Good to see this has turned into a preppers thread as the last one was great!

A natural disaster SHTF secenario would be harder for you to buy your way out, but a lot easier if you have gold at your disposal. Also harder to see coming though if you live in Qld you have no excuses.

I think it is prudent to have enough bottled water in the house to last a few weeks, I drink tap water but the rest of the family seems to think it is poisonous to do so, (even before flouridation).

 

Sotheby's stock price is probably a good proxy for collectibles:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts...on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Oops... collectibles did not hold up! As you can see though it is cyclical.