Aden sisters don't sound phased yet. Still think it's basing. I'm guessing from the tone that they think 1200 has a better than even chance of holding - this because they comment that a retreat to 1000 would be an unwinding of the entire bull move from 2009. I'm reading a skeptical tone into that? Posted Nov 28, 2013 "Gold's steps are your friend. For now, all is still good on the basing front. And our best bet is to keep track of the stepping stones because gold is at a crossroads." http://www.321gold.com/editorials/aden/aden112813.html
I have been reading the Aden sisters for many years and they certainly did not see this coming. They were encouraging purchasing at the $1600 mark falling and have been reactionary the whole way down..........eg....this looks like a good spot to buy even though it could fall further but we doubt it.........after another fall..............this looks like a good spot to buy even though it could fall further but we doubt it.....etc..etc. Very,Very few have picked this fall....which is not over yet.....and given the real reasons why.....not manipulation blah blah blah...
I think the fall could be based on a number of factors, but the standout one for me is the ready amount of cash in the market because of QE. This is unprecedented and as such has given a lie to the charts, trends and predictability. Certainty will only come after the fact. Something will trigger or spook the market which will bring down stocks and reverse the PMs trending down, or, all the factors will reach an equilibrium and it will be business as usual and the fundamentals and trends will kick back in. I made the mistake of locking in the belief that PMs increase from Fall to Christmas, steady, then increase again to Easter (Spring) and then we have a smackdown until Fall. Northern hemisphere centric of course. But what chance any reasoned analysis when $85 billion is hitting the market each month?
But the QE is not hitting the market at all...... a fair portion is being held as reserves by the banks...they are not lending the money out...
I would add that from the time of the GFC, as PMs and the mining stocks dropped, the vacuum was filled through paper trading of gold. And even though the gold is leveraged at 70:1 or above, it appears a simple shortcut to hedging metals for investing community. And should the case be made that the metal will not be forthcoming, maybe for many it doesn't matter because with all the QE money about, it was just a virtual investment not unlike digital currencies.
True, but through the investment arm of the banks, investors are borrowing from the bank, to buy the shares, which are going up in value, which allows them to borrow more shares to buy from the banks investing arm, which again go up in value which .... So true the money is not in the market per se but is within a perpetual bank loop. The risk for the bank is that the market may collapse and the initial asset held as collateral may not meet the margin call. The investor will of course lose everything. I'm not saying that the whole of the banks' reserves are tied up in this, but enough to allow those in the know to benefit from QE. Again, those in the know could equally be told when to bail to preserve both the banks and investors' dosh, leaving the mug investors and pension funds holding the overpriced stocks which will then collapse into GFC2.
I always think of this market as a paper casino. Physical is where the real price mechanism works and I don't understand why physical is still connected to the gang of five's daily decision.
That's three suppositions which you're angling at J, whereas 'the market' is comprised of those dodgy types trusted to provide a 'daily fix' (y'know, trusty types like those who I presume rigged LIBOR too - why? - because they could/can) and the fact that paper metals contracts hugely outweigh the real deliverables - I expect they always will... so gold or silver thesedays really has little relation to what trading the stuff used to be like... in other words your sentence should read 'physical is NOT where the real price mechanism works'... or something like.
Yes I agree. It's sloppy writing and the result of frustration of a market that no longer makes any sense. Of course the paper market is 'the game' since physical doesn't matter to the shortsighted paper players. Shortsighted since one day the massive move of physical to the East might rise up and bite the West badly. But then again perhaps that is just part of the plan. For all we know the powers have decided that there has to be an evening out of gold holdings across the world. It makes no sense that a country the size of China should hold barely more gold than somewhere like Italy. I was pondering today the fact that the UK is approaching overall debt levels and liabilities of close to 900% of GDP and has been that way for a few years now, with a disgruntled population of have-nots and a population of have-less and less, along with a booming housing market and a sense of 'things will be OK'. And then comparing that to Australia, which without too much trouble could push out any impact of profligacy for at least 20 years, with a solid housing market, jammed malls racking up debts and the self-entitlement that seems to come with being a native of 'the lucky country' these days. Hang on to that physical has always been my mantra and now that I'm thinking like this I can declare that the bottom is in!
All this talk about paper and manipulation really is hollow because right here and now I can buy as much gold and silver bullion at spot as I desire.....it is available in any quantity....if what you wrote has any real weight then this would not be the case.....physical would be very tight right now...but it isn't....there should be long lines at the bullion dealers right now but where are all the people?
They have ammunition left. In general Westeners often buy in a rising gold market and many times at or near the top of a gold market imo If we invested in gold like Indians or Chinese the physical ammunition may have dried up by now. In theory regarding manipulation the gold can get passed around in agreement to influence price and cover shortages. In the end the agreements will be null and void because of geopolitical differences. The physical gold price will then find its true value
The chart is not even on the $ axis, its manipulated to make the trend line appear differently. Look at the gap between $400/500 and $1200/1500 for e.g
There is no such thing as ammunition left over. Gold is a market ..... no different to wheat in the sense that if there is enough physical demand from overseas then prices will rise accordingly and the price of bread in this country as a consequence will rise. There is no conspiracy to hold gold down...it is doing it all by itself. These big players are not interested in such long term commitments. They are quick buck players....ruthless and greedy. They will manipulate for the short term gain this is true but to subscribe to the idea that there amongst the shadows are dark forces manipulating gold and gold investors like a puppet master and his marionette is too much. If you really believed this then you would sell all your gold and silver in disgust and invest in something less manipulated....but isn't everything manipulated?......Join a cult and give everything away. But hold on....there for all of us are the caped crusaders of SuperSchiff, BatSprott and Robin Rickard to fight the evil Joker Damon and Lex Blankfein. Sorry, I don't believe it for a minute because the proof is in the pudding. If I wan't gold now I can get it at the price..........If gold was manipulated, just like food during the communist days of Russia, then the shelves would be empty and I would have to buy it on the black market. In fact the food in Russia during communism is an extremely good analogy because you had a government intent on trying to control prices but ultimately failed.
The gold is coming from the weak hands, giving up their gold, for those with the big kahoonas to purchase. Most non investors buy on the rise and sell on the dip. Stackers of course buy most of the time but especially on the dip. One major difference for stackers at the moment is that both Gold and Silver are expected to rise quickly, and if the case, the GSR usually falls substantially, making silver the better investment leading into the rise where should gold double, silver will more than triple. I am not arguing with you, just telling you where you are wrong.
If gold was manipulated you might think to dump a load of paper contracts just before close knowing there were no buyers and that the price would plummet.
A logarithmic chart rather than an arithmetic chart is not an unusual approach when a value has increased many fold. It's based on the idea that a move from $250 to $500 (a 100% change) is more significant than a move from $1650 to $1900 (a 15% change). Since they are both $250 moves an arithmetic chart will not express any difference between the two More to the point, the decline from $1900 to $1200 is a $700 move but is not as crushing as a $700 move would be from $1000 to $300
Julie it is interesting that the $7.50 gold price decline in the last few mins of trading is not reflected in the other metals nor on the XE chart nor in Netdania???
Don't take my word for it......go ahead and ring every bullion dealer and every bullion company in Australia on Monday and ask them out of curiosity how much silver can they supply at the current spot price........just bullshit them and tell them you represent some big investors who are keen to do big business in the tens of millions of dollars........ Then let me know what you find.... Of course this is only in Australia...not globally.
