Wikipedia defines a Black Swan event as:-..... a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major impact, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance and technology The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem", the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1] The often accepted day to day interpretation is more simply a event that was almost impossible to predict that has had massive consequences. Now, it's probably an understatment to say that the attacks on 9/11 elevn years ago came as a shock. But was it really a black swan event? and more to the point, what importance does this have for stackers? With the benefit of hindsight, a attack on this date could be seen as moderately predictable{ not the year, but the actual day}. I'm not going to go into details now, as others have explored the topic and explained it far better { and I'm a 2 finger typist}; if anyone wants details, p.m. me and I'll either refer you to a source or send links or something. The point being, if events like this which so few people expect can be even vaguely assertained that would suggest both oppurtunities and risk avoidance for those with that knowledge. Thought?
I watched V for Vendetta yesterday. Quite a poignant movie, given today's 'remembrance'. Who the hell is the world kidding any more. Regardless of the actual nature of the 'whodunnit' we all refer to. Many people lost their lives, and many more have as a result of the political capital gained from the event to go to war across the world to pursue alternative agenda's to the ones which were given to the public. 11 years on, that is proven fact, and I still don't like it. Hence my reason to continue stacking gold, I have an exit strategy then and with it the ability to not comply with a potentially dystopian future. For people who don't have fears about this coming, take a look at the advancements in military technology and usages. I can't stand Alex Jones, but even he gave factual information about the deployment of military-grade drone technology in the US to monitor and enforce the security of 'citizens' there. Face it, with the US teetering on a knife edge, and the already-seen rise of the far right in times of economic unrest (the UK's English Defence League and BNP, Greeces Golden Dawn being merely three examples of this) we are in a time where a very ugly political virus could sweep across the western world. All it needs is a catalyst, and I'm open to the idea this very act would push people over the edge, regardless of who it is perpetrated by. I'm not a doomsday prepper, I'm a pragmatist. I rail against tin foil hatters and the leagues of stoner conspiracy nutjobs, but I am still realistic.
They hate us for freedoms, therefore our freedoms need to be taken away. I think the terrorists are winning.
