Pirocco, I don't know what real world you are talking about but the real world I know contains people who aren't necessarily stuck in the past. The real world has people that constantly change with the times. The real world has people who don't care what you and I think is a "store of value". The real world has people who increasingly are not interested in investing their money into some or many of the things you do. Supply and demand doesn't exist in some vacuum and there's no assurance that if supply weakens somewhat that prices will predictably have to follow. And that doesn't mean that I don't think fundamentals are unimportant....in fact, just the contrary, they can be very important....but they don't necessarily always tell he whole picture. Because the real world is as such, I see it as not logical to claim that because X happened N years ago because of V that if X happens tomorrow that it's necessarily because of V. It could happen because of W, Y, Z, or any other reason. The future isn't written and it doesn't necessarily have to repeat the past. .
"they don't necessarily always tell he whole picture" "doesn't necessarily" See previous posts about your 100% etc extremes talk / strawmen. Your "real world people" change when stockpiles got big. That change is what stockpiles decrease and what pushes price down. As I predicted earlier this year, a dollar a month, just like in the similar 2008 story. That's what market (supply/demand) data indicates and, in case you forgot, what those little price adjustors out there at the Comex etc use to adjust. History repeats itself, in terms of relative value, and if the reference doesn't change, also in absolute value. Since 2008, 500 Moz silver in ETF's. Since 2008, +300 Moz ASE's around. 9 years. Before, it took 20 years to reach less than half that total. Dito Maples and a plethora of new ones like Philharmonikers. Gold, same story, only that governments decided to make it more expensive when they saw speculators amassing the stores, compensating speculators demand drop in recent years and lifting the price ratio. Not new, it's exactly what they did in... history. Inflict speculators less ounces when these amass to buy, and less fiat when these amass to sell, with a phaseshift delay intended to lure disappointed silver speculators to gold, for another milking round. Then a couple decades flat, until savings get again big, and the central planning decides to repeat the story in order to control inflation and their theft based on it. And that's all just what data, fragmented around here and there, laid together shows. The price fluctuations since 2011, were mostly caused by the futures markets based hedging. Logical, a plethora new dealers appeared since, and they hedge their stocks. Since speculators demand increase rate dropped (ETF's ceased to add, coin sales figures hang), there is less profit in the market, and dealers try to compensate by driving up the price along futures market orders that get cancelled later on (that's also the existence reason of futures: attempt to lock in a cost, a profit), and back down when they want cheap stock replenishments. When that ceases to work well, dealers gonna find another job. Nothing special - just the opposite of what happened since 2008. In my region, I know about a dozen small ones whose websites and activity disappeared. One became a truck driver haha. Another bigger one, ran a luxe cab renting company in his pre bullion dealer period, is still active but sold his remaining part of the business (already dropped to 50%) end last year to a broad activities - stock market fund whoms stock price dropped 30% since (over 2016). That's how bear markets look like.
But but but, the lower a price is driven, the more rosy its buying & future selling outlook becomes! It's like any speculation within a zero sum story. When negativism seems to rule the day, it's buying time. When positivism seems to rule, it's selling time. It's thus "going against the herd". Back in march and especially april 2011, those that expressed negativism were heavily flamed for it and the positivism-guys heavily applauded. My "favorite" example case: STAGE 1: PERMABULL - TRICKING PEOPLE TO BUY THE PRICE HIGHER: $38 04 april 2011 "Great way to start the week......don't you think?" $39 05 april 2011 "39 ...One more step up the ladder" $40 07 april 2011 "Thursday..............Yet another up day" $41 13 april 2011 "Hump Day...........Up Day" $42 14 april 2011 "Killer Thursday............Movin' on up" $43 15 april 2011 "A Fabulous Friday............Great Finish For The Week" $44 19 april 2011 "Monday.........Up Up and Away" $45.5 20 april 2011 "A Whale of a Wednesday............45+" $46.50 21 april 2011 "A Thundering Thursday...............Look at that puppy go!!" STAGE 2: FIRST PROFITGRAB $49.50 25 april 2011 (morning) peak STAGE 3: PERMABULL BECOMES PERMABEAR: (including 1 temp swap due to a double top occurrence) $46 25 april 2011 10:13 AM "How is this morning for a little reality?" OW PRICE RETURNS TO HIGH LET'S SWAP BACK TO PERMABULL: $48 25 april 2011 04:09 PM "Monday Mayhem.............Y'all survive? Monday Mayhem............Y'all survive? What a day. Actually, not all that bad. The long term trend is still up. Just a minor bump. A "little" more volatility than usual." $46 26 april 2011 "A downturn of 2 days or 2 weeks is not significant in the over all scope of things" $49.50 28 april 2011 PEAK 2 $48 29 april 2011 "Silver..........Something to consider" $44 1 may 2011 SECOND PROFITGRAB STAGE 4: PERMABEAR - TRICKING PEOPLE INTO SELLING LOWER: $33 7 may 2011 "Silver...If you are never going to sell, what benefit is it to you?" ADDENDUM: A LITTLE POST-PROFITGRAB (POST-MORTEM FOR THE BUY-HIGHER FOLKS) CHIT CHAT ABOUT THE PROFITGRAB: https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread....old-physical-at-the-top&p=1346165#post1346165 05-06-2011, 05:58 PM That bullion dealer was probably hedged, so received the for the $50 purchase - compensating dollars, from the same suckers, DURING the price uptrend. Just to say, it's not like that I'm against saving silver instead of fiat, I'm not some "enemy" of stackers, just trying to avoid them becoming the sucker I became. .... using all avail & found market data (not only silvers) instead of nothing or zerohedge selections. You blame me to be "stuck in the past" but the very foundation of speculation IS the past. The future isn't the past, but the future does start from the past. And the bigger the stocks from the past, the more weight they have in the story of the future. It's not like in the fiat world, where creation of new value and destruction of existing value is possible with a keyboard by a third party from a single place. And not like how new technologies destroy the value of outdated. In silvers case, the simple storage of a product that doesn't perish, the future is just a chapter following a previous chapter.
Never, is future nor past. I don't ignore the past. Doing so can ruin happiness. Especially true in zero sum markets. When I started buying silver, all I knew were QE amounts. I knew nothing about QE's nature and nothing about silvers past. The result is named "Pirocco Sucker Senior". Just trying to not add a Junior.
This is an example of how stockpiling (yes folks that's what we stackers do!) influences a price trend: Year 0000 Ladies and Gentlemen we are now airborne. Year 0001 production 800, 800 consumed, stockpile = 0, price = 8 Year 0002 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 200, price = 10 <- first suckers buying. Year 0003 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 400, price = 10 <- despite the ongoing stockpiling, price just stays, because the stockpiling RATE stayed. Year 0004 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 600, price = 10 Year 0005 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 800, price = 10 Year 0006 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 1000, price = 10 Year 0007 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 1200, price = 10 <- last suckers buying. Year 0008 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 1000, price = 6 <- start selling stockpile. Notice how price drops 4 in 1 year, that's due to stockpiling swapping from +200 (buying) to -200 (selling) Year 0009 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 800, price = 6 <- notice how price stays despite ongoing stockpile selling, same reason. Year 0010 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 600, price = 6 Year 0011 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 400, price = 6 Year 0012 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 200, price = 6 Year 0013 production 1000, 800 consumed, stockpile = 0, price = 6 Year 0014 production 800, 800 consumed, stockpile = 0, price = 8 <- back to start situation. Year 0015 Ladies and Gentlemen we have landed. That's how things (stock, supply, demand, price) work. Hedging, can easily be inserted in this, just double the stockpiling rate effect on the price. That's what futures are ment for: a futures hedge of 100% against a cash market position of 100%, doubles the price change that the cash markets position taking would cause on its own. Of course, the hedge taking should closely follow cash market orders, as to "insert" an extra in the price at the rate of the cash market ordered ounces. But that's fairly easy in a market where all orders ultimately pass a few central nodes (bullion banks) that friendly share the info among them. And even beyond this, if dealers experience little selling back, they can drive the spot price along its futures component to wherever they want, until of course the selling back starts. Then it's a matter of quickly dump tpositionshe remaining futures (reduction total net = longs-shorts) to a net zero, they can't drive it lower).positions So combined with 100% futures hedging, aboves example case would drive price to 12 instead of 10, the bottom 6 just staying. This is what is named "fundamental analysis", a net result of it. I didn't ignore mining changes, industrial demand changes, etc, I just could eliminate them from the price equation, because those other supply/demand parameters' effect summed up to a net ignorable element. One of the capital mistakes that some make, is that they look at selections instead of totals. But the price mechanism does not. What you name X Y Z etc.
In some ways you are not that different . Silver won't save youif you act as clueless an careless as with your bank account. I often found in business, " there's nothing like communication." A weather forecaster isn't a profit, not nesaccarily Philosophically , I think if you look at things evolutionary there was the "big bang" As a Christian, God speaks and it comes into being, (gigantic understatement") Maybe you could say either scenario defies the general pattern, details, etc, just my 1oz worth I believe we are living in a most extrodinary time in history, there surely are many parralels to other times but this I believe is a world changing time. I appreciate the two an tho on this forum, especially when its carried out in a civil manner, not just point scoring. As we hear on the radio, "joy to the world, an peace an goodwill to all men"
And that just tells me what the value of your opinions are. Sorry, you have lost me for sure - you are just in it for the argument and not even an intelligent one. I call you out - troll!
Bull market. PM forums crowded with happy smiling people. Bear market. PM forums visited by 5 men and a horse and they fight eachother.
So then, this forum may just be a collection of 5 men, 2 sockpuppets, 1 tax office investigator, a horse and 99 spammers for the next 40 years! .
