2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Kiyosaki trying to make an impact with a topic he obviously doesn't know much about (Easter Island...).
    Funny how he can't even spell "Moai" the right way and doesn't know the name of the civilization on Easter Island, but he keeps on talking about it like a "real expert"... in front of a fake scenery and wearing those "fake" plastic toy-like green glasses:

     
  2. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    He knows everything just ask him. He probably has a favorite story he loves to tell about it.
     
  3. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I can usually get what schiff is trying to say in the first ten minutes before I change the video. He mostly just repeats himself for an hour each time.

    I agree with what he says and I get it but I just cant listen to it drag on time and time again.
     
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  4. CCS

    CCS New Member

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    Governments must beware the lure of free money
    Budget constraints have gone missing. That presents both danger and opportunity
    LeadersJul 23rd 2020 edition (The Economist)
    ________________________________________
    Jul 23rd 2020
    It is sometimes said that governments wasted the global financial crisis of 2007-09 by failing to rethink economic policy after the dust settled. Nobody will say the same about the covid-19 pandemic. It has led to a desperate scramble to enact policies that only a few months ago were either unimaginable or heretical. A profound shift is now taking place in economics as a result, of the sort that happens only once in a generation. Much as in the 1970s when clubby Keynesianism gave way to Milton Friedman’s austere monetarism, and in the 1990s when central banks were given their independence, so the pandemic marks the start of a new era. Its overriding preoccupation will be exploiting the opportunities and containing the enormous risks that stem from a supersized level of state intervention in the economy and financial markets.
    This new epoch has four defining features. The first is the jaw-dropping scale of today’s government borrowing, and the seemingly limitless potential for yet more. The imf predicts that rich countries will borrow 17% of their combined gdp this year to fund $4.2trn in spending and tax cuts designed to keep the economy going. They are not done. In America Congress is debating another spending package (see article). The European Union has just agreed on a new stimulus funded by common borrowing, crossing a political Rubicon (see Leader).
    The second feature is the whirring of the printing presses. In America, Britain, the euro zone and Japan central banks have created new reserves of money worth some $3.7trn in 2020. Much of this has been used to buy government debt, meaning that central banks are tacitly financing the stimulus. The result is that long-term interest rates stay low even while public-debt issuance soars.
    The state’s growing role as capital-allocator-in-chief is the third aspect of the new age. To see off a credit crunch, the Federal Reserve, acting with the Treasury, has waded into financial markets, buying up the bonds of at&t, Apple and even Coca-Cola, and lending directly to everyone from bond dealers to non-profit hospitals. Together the Fed and Treasury are now backstopping 11% of America’s entire stock of business debt. Across the rich world, governments and central banks are following suit.
    The final feature is the most important: low inflation. The absence of upward pressure on prices means there is no immediate need to slow the growth of central-bank balance-sheets or to raise short-term interest rates from their floor around zero. Low inflation is therefore the fundamental reason not to worry about public debt, which, thanks to accommodative monetary policy, now costs so little to service that it looks like free money.
    Don’t fool yourself that the role of the state will magically return to normal once the pandemic passes and unemployment falls. Yes, governments and central banks may dial down their spending and bail-outs. But the new era of economics reflects the culmination of long-term trends. Even before the pandemic, inflation and interest rates were subdued despite a jobs boom. Today the bond market still shows no sign of worrying about long-term inflation. If it is right, deficits and money-printing may well become the standard tools of policymaking for decades. The central banks’ growing role in financial markets, meanwhile, reflects the stagnation of banks as intermediaries and the prominence of innovative and risk-hungry shadow banks and capital markets (see article). In the old days, when commercial banks ruled the roost, central banks acted as lenders of last resort to them. Now central banks increasingly have to get their hands dirty on Wall Street and elsewhere by acting as mammoth “marketmakers of last resort”.
    A state with a permanently broader and deeper reach across the economy creates some opportunities. Low rates make it cheaper for the government to borrow to build new infrastructure, from research labs to electricity grids, that will boost growth and tackle threats such as pandemics and climate change. As societies age, rising spending on health and pensions is inevitable—if the resulting deficits help provide a necessary stimulus to the economy, all the more reason to embrace them.
    Yet the new era also presents grave risks. If inflation jumps unexpectedly the entire edifice of debt will shake, as central banks have to raise their policy rates and in turn pay out vast sums of interest on the new reserves that they have created to buy bonds. And even if inflation stays low, the new machinery is vulnerable to capture by lobbyists, unions and cronies.
    One of monetarism’s key insights was that sprawling macroeconomic management leads to infinite opportunities for politicians to play favourites. Already they are deciding which firms get tax breaks and which workers should be paid by the state to wait for their old jobs to reappear. Soon some loans to the private sector will turn sour, leaving governments to choose which firms fail. When money is free, why not rescue companies, protect obsolete jobs and save investors?
    However, though that would provide a brief stimulus, it is a recipe for distorted markets, moral hazard and low growth. Fear of politicians’ myopia was why many countries delegated power to independent central banks, which wielded a single, simple tool—interest rates—to manage the economic cycle. Yet today interest rates, so close to zero, seem impotent and the monarchs who run the world’s central banks are becoming rather like servants working as the government’s debt-management arm.
    Free markets and free lunches
    Each new era of economics confronts a new challenge. After the 1930s the task was to prevent depressions. In the 1970s and early 1980s the holy grail was to end stagflation. Today the task for policymakers is to create a framework that allows the business cycle to be managed and financial crises to be fought without a politicised takeover of the economy. As our briefing this week explains, this may involve delegating fiscal firepower to technocrats, or reforming the financial system to enable central banks to take interest rates deeply negative, exploiting the revolutionary shift among consumers away from old-style banking to fintech and digital payments. The stakes are high. Failure will mean the age of free money eventually comes at a staggering price.
     
  5. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Unfunded liabilities could be a game changer.
    When pensions are no longer being paid by states, to recipients like Teachers, Police etc, the States will have to be bailed-out by the Fed.
    That's going to cause big problems; the unfunded liability to the Fed could be beyond huge. :eek:

    Another thing I've been thinking of is how the Chinese virus is going to affect the property market in the cities.
    Many folk realise that being older and living in the city in close proximity to people is not a great idea and, to get locked down
    and not locked down could mean the difference between life and death for seniors or folk with underlying health issues.
    The property market, transportation, hospitality dynamics "could" completely change especially in huge cities like in the US.o_O
     
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  6. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    he’s popped back on the scene now. He had George gammon on and acted like they were best mates.
     
  7. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    Kiyosaki has made a fortune out of selling his books. Interesting ideas, original, he has talent and has many original thoughts.
    I respect him, but he's also marketing himself extremely well. And, it looks like he's making a lot of money out of interviews, books, conferences... talk, basically.

    Then his wife made a lot of money on his back, but who would she be without Kiyosaki? :D

    Today Kiyosaki is merely repeating himself. Sometimes he's trying to squeeze out new ideas, but fails like in this video.
    He doesn't know too much about the REAL world and the REAL trends happening around him. He's mostly about himself.

    This reminds me of Jim Rogers (whom I appreciate a lot), who does have solid understanding of China, but mostly old China. Doesn't really know much about the current global trends.
    But he keeps mumbling the same old stuff in all his interviews. And makes money out of this.

    Jim Rogers repeats himself. Kiyosaki too.
     
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  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  9. Shaddam IV

    Shaddam IV Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    The collapse that I never expected but which now seems rather certain is the collapse of the CCP in the next 18 months. America is making its move to freeze billions of dollars in CCP central committee members assets there in preparation. Most of the central committee already have their families outside China and are getting ready to join them and to start drawing on their Swiss and American bank accounts but the US is well ahead of them and is denying them visas and blocking access to their assets. Game on.
     
  10. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    This sounds exactly like what they did to Russia through the Cypriot banking "haircut" back in 2012-2013. Back then it sounded unbelievable that they could do such a thing. Now it's the new "normal".

    I wonder how China would respond: they own so many bonds, treasuries. They could go down in kamikaze-style "glory" by suicide-selling them :D :D :D

    That would spin the world off into an apocalypse.

    Whatever the US is doing looks like a sinking dreadnought still trying to fire at faraway targets beyond range...
     
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  11. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Ray Dalio Says 'Inflation Is Coming' - How To Prepare

     
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  12. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Looks like gold's dippin...
     
  13. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Dipping from an explosion through 1900 :rolleyes:
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    You mean 2000? :D (USD)
     
  15. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    USD reserve weight is falling
    heading to 35% in no time
     
  16. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  17. Millennial Engineer

    Millennial Engineer New Member

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    Real gross domestic product (GDP) for America decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent for the July 2020 Quarter.

    https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross...arter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update

    US GDP July 2020.JPG
    Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross...arter-2020-advance-estimate-and-annual-update

    This didn't mean much to me so looking a bit deeper at the report: From Table 7 of the the full report.

    My layman interpretation of this is that if the US Was to have 4 periods of GDP equal to the last quarter of 2020 it would be 21,747.4 Trillion USD. Pre-Covid Figure.

    If you had four periods of the GDP in 2nd Quarter 2020, US Annual GDP would be 19,408.8 Trillion USD.
    GDP 2.JPG

    Someone please correct me if I am wrong.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2020
  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    ^
    A mere 0.0001 % of the Q2 GDP would be nice.
     
  19. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  20. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Mainstream media:

    NBC:
    U.S. Q2 GDP shrunk by a record 32.9%, vs 34.7% expected



    Now: does 3,000 $ gold seem far away? Does 100 $ silver seem far away?

    Not now! :D
     

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