@Ipv6Ready, what are your thoughts on holding both stocks in a JV? For example if you've got enough cash to invest do you buy both RTR and ZNC or is exposure to one enough? I've been holding off buying into RTR coz I don't have enough $$$ to buy everything I like. That being said ADN (which I own) bought out Minotaur and I hold both CHN and VMS.
@mmm....shiney! ZNC and RTR peaked my interest. I plan reading up more about them over the weekend, and will post a reply. Ive plan off loading more PLS, AKE and LYC shares over the coming weeks, take some profits, pay tax, free carry and diversify in to other ESG. Not because I lost conviction in them but too many 30c to $1.50 that will likely get 3x to 10x in the same time frame for PLS, AKE and LYC can achieve 1.5x to 2x.
"Meh, why worry." https://www.dw.com/en/german-industry-gas-rationing-plan-would-cripple-economy/a-61302394 Business leaders and unions have warned that any disruption to gas supplies would be devastating for Europe's largest economy, as it has not yet fully recovered from the post-COVID supply chain crisis. One worst-case scenario involves the world's largest chemical firm BASF, whose main chemical production site in the western city of Ludwigshafen would have to be partially or fully shut down. President of Germany's IG BCE chemical workers union Michael Vassiliadis, who also sits on BASF's supervisory board, said around 40,000 employees would have to be put on short-time working hours or laid off. "The consequences would not only be reduced work hours and job losses, but also the rapid collapse of the industrial production chains in Europe — with worldwide consequences," Vassiliadis added. Christian Kullmann, head of the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI), also warned that chemical plants are so complex, they "can't just be switched off and on again like a microwave oven." "Once chemical plants are shut down, they remain silent for weeks and months," he stressed. Kullmann, who is also head of the specialty chemicals company Evonik, said the disruption would have a "huge domino effect through almost all industries." The chemical sector is a critical part of Germany's export-oriented economy as most industries cannot do without chemical products, including car manufacturers, pharmaceutical producers and construction firms. Natural gas is also used both as a source of energy and as a raw material by chemical producers. No other sector utilizes more of Germany's gas supply than the chemical sector, at about 15%. Two years needed to cut reliance on Russia Despite promises to cut its reliance on Russian gas — the share stood at more than 50% before the invasion and has since fallen to roughly 40% — Habeck claimed that Germany is unlikely to find enough alternative sources until mid-2024. Announcing the emergency alert system Wednesday, he said Germany's gas storage facilities are currently filled to about 25% capacity. --- https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1510092370527899651
The American Hypocrisy https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/russia_gl6a.pdf US lifts sanctions against Russian products that will affect Americans directly American berates Germany/Austria from its almighty alter of good and justice to stop buying Russian Gas/Oil. Facts like Germans and Austrians have no real alternative supply and will have to curtail life without Russian Oil/Gas is irrelevent to America who are basically oil/gas self sufficient. But behold critical products that does affect Americans by Russian sanctions are reversed without a whimper or a blush, the world can't have ordinary Americans suffer REAL shortages! OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations 31 CFR part 587 GENERAL LICENSE NO. 6A Transactions Related to the Exportation or Reexportation of Agricultural Commodities, Medicine, Medical Devices, Replacement Parts and Components, or Software Updates, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic, or Clinical Trials (a) Except as provided in paragraph (c) of this general license, all transactions prohibited by the Russian Harmful Foreign Activities Sanctions Regulations, 31 CFR part 587 (RuHSR), that are ordinarily incident and necessary to: (1) the exportation or reexportation of agricultural commodities, medicine, medical devices, replacement parts and components for medical devices, or software updates for medical devices to, from, or transiting the Russian Federation; (2) the prevention, diagnosis, or treatment of COVID-19 (including research or clinical studies relating to COVID-19); or (3) ongoing clinical trials and other medical research activities that were in effect prior to March 24, 2022, are authorized. (1) Agricultural commodities. For the purposes of this general license, agricultural commodities are products that fall within the term “agricultural commodity” as defined in section 102 of the Agricultural Trade Act of 1978 (7 U.S.C. 5602) and are intended for use as: (i) Food for humans (including raw, processed, and packaged foods; live animals; vitamins and minerals; food additives or supplements; and bottled drinking water) or animals (including animal feeds); (ii) Seeds for food crops; (iii) Fertilizers or organic fertilizers; (iii) Fertilizers or organic fertilizers; or (iv) Reproductive materials (such as live animals, fertilized eggs, embryos, and semen) for the production of food animals Effective March 24, 2022, General License No. 6, dated February 24, 2022, is replaced and superseded in its entirety by this General License No. 6A. Deafening silence from OAN, Newsmax and Fox to CNN, MSNBC and PBS However having wrote the above, Ukraine-Russia story has lost it steam and to most not in Ukraine, Russia, Germany and Austria it is firmly a MEH story about price of petrol or bread going up few percentages. EU threatens China that if they sell military equipment to Russia, the world will sanction China, Beware! China reminds EU only 45 of 193 UN members have Sanctioned Russia and politely ask what world is she talking about? I will stop posting about Ukraine-Russian war in this thread with the line The Western Hypocrisy
First they said no war. Then they said 2 days special operations. 2 weeks... 2 months... 2 years?? If only the military is as good as the propaganda department. Let's face it, this is unwinnable. You can try 10 times, the result will be the same.
Out of curiosity, what do you see as the Russians idea of a "win" and what is the result you see (after 1 time or 10 times of "trying")?
Some say it's false flag, others claim it's a "major victory". It looks like Russia has found a new "motive" to make the war even more ruthless. More destruction, aggression to come. What is worrying is that I don't see the end, but rather escalation and while everyone is coming with the guns to feed the conflict, normal people pray for peace. The rest of the world is running poorer due to the economic turmoil. I expect the financial-economic problems to spiral even lower and generate secondary crises. Perhaps this will lead to a domino-effect crisis like the one in '08, only it will be worse now. Inflation, food crisis, currency exchange rates getting worse for some currencies, difficult international travel, amplification of resource wars, higher transportation costs due to higher fuel prices, much higher prices for construction materials.
I'm taking a very long term view, 30-40 years. I've always maintained that China will eventually become the economic superpower of the future, although my timeframe is much longer, after 2050. With economic prowess comes immense military power and imperialist ideas which means China will seek to acquire natural resources, gas, oil fields and expand the Chinese empire. This is natural and in fact will be seen as a "right". The Chinese empire is more than 2000 years old after all. With a population only 10%, and economy of soon only 5% of China, Russia's only bargaining chip is the "second army" reputation in the world. Contrary to what the media is portraying and what Russians themselves may even think, to the Chinese, Russians are Westerners and Russia is part of the West.
China will become the nr.1 great power in the world, indeed. I also think that this will happen until 2050. You could move that down to 2040, most likely and highly probably it will happen by then. Not until 2030, I think. My take on China becoming a LIMITED "superpower" until 2040: 1. will become the top economic power in terms of GDP 2. will become the biggest military power 3. will become the biggest industrial power (industrial output and also in terms of industrial diversity: by then, China will be able to produce pretty much everything at a much higher quality level) 4. but will be the most isolated/limited power (geographically, politically being most isolated): China doesn't have the luxury of the USA (which has no "natural enemies" around and two wide-open oceans used for trade and military expansion, Canada and Mexico are friendly at too weak, somewhat under US influence) and is surrounded by tremendous geographical and political barriers 5. with tremendous internal consumption, China will have to look for more external resources (not enough oil, wood, food, metals...): thus, China will overfish the world's oceans and will hyper-exploit African, Asian and European countries like a big fat hungry elephant) 6. nothing significant will happen in the world without China's approval/consent 7. China will dictate the new financial system: we will do trade and we'll save our funds in the assets that China will push forward (I think China will play a strong role in the creation of a new reserve currency, international money transfer system - even if it will not be global like the Dollar or SWIFT) 8. China's land grab will be unstoppable: will China swallow Siberia? will China swallow Taiwan? will China grab more land in South Asia? >>> it will be unstoppable anyway 9. Russia will either become China's "Canada" or will become Europe's "Brazil": either China or Europe will continue to drain Russia's resources (otherwise they won't be able to survive) 10. China might push forward a revise Eurasian economic project: perhaps "Belt and Road" will be difficult or impossible to finalize due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US-EU boycott of Chinese trade lines, regional wars in Central Asia and Somali pirates - but perhaps a new version will be rolled out and Europe might make a deal with China (with or without the US' or Russia's agreement) 11. it's not the age of China that's important, but the STRONG culture and the HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE that China has accumulated - unfortunately, much of that historical heritage has been destroyed by communism 12. China will be the world's "brain powerhouse": the "Silicon Valley" of brains in Asia - Chinese students learn a lot more and work a lot more than US or European counterparts, so China will become unbeatable in brain power 13. China's strongest power of negotiation will attract more allies and break the "colonial west's" power to impose: China will attract more allies in Africa, Latin-America and possibly in Eastern Europe, possibly in Central Asia and the Middle East - many countries there are already "shunning" the US and EU "commands", since Chinese business deals and prices are more appealing and the Chinese "don't come with guns" unlike the Americans (of course, many are affirming that China might use credits to exert its power over political regimes - thus, China might end up dominating countries in Africa, South Asia, Eastern Europe) 14. no-one will ever dare to "talk down" to China
The EU might compensate for the Russian gas by obtaining gas from the Eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, Nigeria, the North Sea or might buy liquid gas from the USA or Canada. Just that the infrastructure doesn't exist and the gas would cost a lot more. It seems like the only option for the EU is to buy liquid gas (transported by boat) from the US. The US can compensate the gas quantity, but this will have multiple times the price of "Rusky gaz". Few sources mention the Central Asian (less exploited) gas fields in the Caspian Sea, Iran and Turkmenistan. For some reason, Europe doesn't seem to want to buy gas from that region. Perhaps too much Russian influence there? Whatever happens, it seems like the US only benefits from this interruption. China as well. Qatar and Nigeria must be very happy about the events (they can't wait to sell their gas). Not to mention the Netherlands (very aggressive in the EU parliament), Norway. How unfair: it seems like Europe is paying the price of Putin's war. But the Russians will eventually survive (making new business deals with India, China, Iran...). Russia can sell their gas and oil. But Europe can barely find alternatives. This again proves the fact that "gas station Russia" has a strong negotiation position vs. Europe, which now depends on the US for gas and also for defense.
This won't happen. Just look at the DPRK, and Chinese treat Chosun people as one of their own, descendants of the yellow emperor from 4000 years ago. Russia is considered as one of the Western imperialists. There's a Chinese saying that a mountain can't have two tigers. This mountain is Euroasia so only one tiger will remain.
Not a chance in hell. Unless they get rid of the CPC. Com Economic advancement must coincide with advancement in property rights - and China is going backwards. While 2/3 of their population lives at around the poverty level and are treated as second class citizens China will always be just a blundering mess.
50 years a go 80% South Koreans didnt have fridge nor flushing toilets, and 61% didnt have Electricity everyday plus to become the new President of South Korea, one would have had to have assassinated the last President till 1988. The mechanics of free voting in South Korea to late 1980s was the electroral office posting prefilled voting forms signed on behalf of free South Koreans to electoral office. Not sure how old you are but would not adivice to say never. Im 50 now so I doubt I live to 100 but if I live for another 35 years till 85 I'm expecting all electricty to be real renewable with energy stored efficiently on unknown unobtainable batteries of what ever technology and the world to be China Centric and willing Taiwanese demonstrating in the streets for a referendum to reunite with Great China to defend against Indian aggression. As for USA lol I doubt they will even have the influence of Russia today. In 35 years parts of USA could be run by a people democratic breakaway liberated independent country run by beloved President/Dictator and I could be in palliative care AI Doctor on the Moon to eke out few extra years lol. Never say Never unless you are on your dead bed now.....
I'm still laughing at all the experts trying to guess uncle Vlads next move Game over. Western media campaign nearly over
Good Sunday read re the LME and the nickel short squeeze. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/02/investing/nickel-short-squeeze/index.html " The LME's lack of transparency allows two or three big names to throw around vast sums of money and "hijack" a relatively illiquid market, said Adrian Gardner, principal analyst of nickel markets at Wood Mackenzie. When Tsingshan got caught in its short squeeze, it held 30,000 tons of its position on the LME, another 120,000 tons were held in over-the-counter positions with banks like JPMorgan(JPM), BNP Paribas, Standard Chartered and United Overseas Bank. "The LME was ill-informed as to the size of the positions in the market, and they didn't know it was all concentrated in one hand," said Browning. "The LME didn't know that there was one company sitting on the other side of this with a 150,000-ton short." Sitting on the other side of the short were hedge funds, who had bet that nickel supply would decrease because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Russia provides about 20% of all top-grade nickel). When the LME decided to retroactively cancel those $4 billion in gains on March 8, it was hedge funds who lost giant sums of money. "
I'll say never for as long as I can and while China has a communist party in control. History explains tells it pretty well, when a nation legislates to protect property rights then it advances economically. That's how capitalism flourishes. China is fkd, it's run by a despot who is quite happy to see 2/3 of the population sacrificed to uphold his misguided desire to marry Marx to Confucious. Russia is fkd for the similar reasons. Putin wants to play Tsar. Edit to add: age has nothing to do with it. I am old enough to be a grandfather though.
I didn't say the ccp will still be in power by then. Also, I said after 2050. It could be 2080. In the meantime, there will be 20 years or more of economic stagnation. If one looks at history, China has political upheaval every 50-100 years so it's nothing out of the usual. Some upheaval, 20%-30% of population is wiped out, but China still survives and comes back stronger. The Chinese civilisation itself is bigger than any political party or political system. Emperors come and go, systems and ideologies come and go. China's problems are China's. It has nothing to do with the West, nothing to do with America. Even if the entire West don't exist, the problems will still exist. That's why I don't bother to get involved in East vs West argument and debates. The problems in China are not caused by the West.
The game is lost the moment you start an all out invasion because of various reasons. Firstly, in a multipolar world, the first one to misbehave is the first to go. Everyone preserves their strength because everyone else is an enemy, there is no such thing as "allies" in a multipolar world. Your loss is my gain. It is like a pool of crocodiles, the moment one crocodile is weakened or injured, it becomes meat and energy snack for the rest. Secondly, there is no military solution for an economic problem. It has never been and will never be so it's a dead end. At this point, you can do anything, use chemical, biological, nuclear, but the result will still be the same.
