Just 6 years ago the Brussels eurocrats were completely seriously drafting roadmaps and holding summits for embracing Turkey as full member to the European Union. Imagine they'd have a member state with a crazy islamist dictator leader and projected hyperinflation just around the corner, which the rest of the members would have to paper over because, solidarity. Kinda shame really it did not eventuate, no amount of popcorn would've sufficed.
He is acting crazy. Turkey is going to be a major power and the upcoming leader of the Sunni world, Ottoman 2.0 because of demographic trends, and renewables replacing oil in 20 years. And we know the Sunni muslim population is growing faster than any population except maybe Africa.
The Ukraine is one of the most worthless pieces of land in Europe and oddly the masses don't realize this. I doubt that Russia OR "the West" really want to "conquer it". Reasons: 1. it is terribly poor (one of the poorest countries in Europe), even Albania, Kosovo, Belarus, Bulgaria and Bosnia are more prosperous, the Ukraine is "the Cambodia" of Europe 2. devastating social problems in the country and huge population (42-43 million) 3. no natural resources worth exploiting 4. terrible energy crisis: the Ukraine doesn't have enough resources to sustain itself (not even enough natural gas for heating or for the industry) 5. poor industry and poor agriculture: most of their industry is in the east, in the conflict zone of very close and, despite the large flat grasslands, the agriculture is underdeveloped (and the soil is also said to be of poor quality, not adequate for cultivation) 6. poor infrastructure and very long distances: a well-developed infrastructure is necessary for foreign investments 7. very few foreign investments (even those are concentrated in the capital or a few big cities) 8. poor tourism 9. very cold winters 10. very bad geographical position (not just because it is sandwiched between Russian and the EU), but because no important economic fluxes, not transportation lines go through it (the "Belt and Road" would bring hope, but the EU hates this and is blocking any connection that China is trying to make) 11. at "conflict crossroads", in "Russia's front yard": reason why foreign investors and tourists will avoid for a long long time 12. population decrease, aging population: young people are leaving the country and more and there are more and more old people 13. poor currency that cannot be traded on the international (not even at most ordinary exchange offices in Europe) 14. crime-related issues: high crime rate, mafia, car theft (serious issues) 15. is there anything "the Ukraine" is good at? Anyone "swallowing" the Ukraine will choke on it. This is why I don't believe either "the West" or Russia would want that. It is a huge country full of problems that would bring no benefit to the EU or Russia. It is merely being exploited as a "pawn".
^ What most people get wrong: we don't live in the first half of the 20th century. Today's wars are mainly economy-related. It is not worth the sacrifice. My opinion is that Russia would be mad to invade the Ukraine. They would have tremendous losses and would ruin their relations with the entire continent, which would turn against them. Plus: Russia's economy couldn't handle it. They have a GDP roughly around South Korea's, but for the size of Russia,... that's tiny. Many Russians are closer to hunger than to embark on a conflict to "conquer Europe". The couldn't handle it, seriously. Europe is far stronger. At most they could take the former Soviet Republics except the Nato members (like the Baltic States), because then they would risk conflict with Nato. Russia's main goals include obtaining warm sea ports, this is why they swallowed Crimea and invaded Georgia. I think their power and influence is limited, though. Russia is far behind many Eastern European countries as well.
I agree. But Hitler is also mad to invade Russia. The trouble is there are a lot of mad people. A lot of mad things happening. Taking the coup in Myanmar as an example. The craziest thing to do since you already control the country. The only explanation I can see is the thirst for blood. They are hungry for blood. Possessed by demons. The West assumes that the world is god centric. By god I mean Christian, Jews and Muslim god, but there's an even older world, that still exists in the East, that prays to the devil.
In other words it would be a perfect expansion "green field" for the EU. Loads of cheap labour force. Absolutely bursting with infrastructure projects opportunities where multinational corporations can go and build stuff with EU net taxpayer's money. They've done it before (think Romania), they'd love to do it again. More people (consumers), more trade, more necessary bureaucrats in Brussels to "manage" things, more GNP... And why would they be fazed about mafia or crime at all. Italy is in the core of the EU, and more crime syndicated countries (such as Albania) are on the doorstep. I believe the EU quite enjoys a bit of a organised crime. And I disagree with the "poor soils" - Ukraine used to be the breadbasket of Soviets; a quarter of agriculture output came from there (not that they got to keep any of it). The soil is good as it's been wetted with so many troops' blood going back and forth. And of course, they have rather fetching women. And they built Antonovs, the awesome flying giants. Russians just want it as a buffer zone. No other reason needed. Which is why life and trade is being conducted in the eastern parts in Russian, with Roubles. Maybe there has already been a Molotov - Ribbentrop 2.0 pact drafted.... Russia gets Eastern Ukraine, the EU gets the land west of Dnjepr. It's definitely not over.
I don't think so, the buffer is just an excuse. It's human greed at play, to want more land to rule over. The same as those before, Hilter, Stalin, Mao. Of course, at the expense of the Russian empire, the collapse will be accelerated because a huge empire without an economic base will not last for long, especially with renewables.
Recommended reading, the first chapter is about Russia. https://books.google.dk/books/about..._button&hl=en&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false Why would Russia collapse? They have an endless supply of former GRU/FSB whatnot spooks to pick the next leader from. Putin is not irreplaceable, and the global geopolitical balance favours keeping Russia up and going. Note I'm not advocating for that, it's just realpolitik.
Russia will collapse because of renewables first, and secondly China will expand to the north. The EU is too weak and is hardly a military threat. If I were China, I will take Siberia, central asia, and the resources. It's a logical expansion for an emerging power. At the moment, this idea seems far fetched, but if Russia were to engage in a new war with the EU, even if Russia were to "win", Russia will be too weak to defend the Far East. China could easily absorb Siberia, maybe even buy it, like how the US bought Alaska. What is certain that everyone here agrees, China will grow stronger and stronger as time passes while Russia weaker and weaker. So the inevitable will happen. It's law of physics.
Russia is unlike Japan, in 20 years, -27% population will be lost, in 40 years Japan will be left with 45% of its current population. talking about economic collapsed, its more like population collapsed. Chinese can move up north and work on those land, but they must be able to speak Russian, so they can become Russian citizens. Try getting near Russia without getting destroyed.
China plays the long game. The Chinese empire or the Han empire, unlike other empires, is not based on religion or even ideology. This is what many in the West don't understand. It is not about democracy or communism, even if they make it look like so as revealing the intention will alienate a lot of allies. In fact, the communist party can one day abandon communism and switch to a new ideology. The chinese empire is about the Han culture and language. To be part of this empire, you need to give up your language and religion, speak mandarin, write in chinese, celebrate chinese festivals. This is why they are re-educating the people in Xinjiang. If you thought this is impossible, the Manchurians that numbered in tens of millions with a different language, script and culture are now Han, taking on Han names and culture, 99.9999% don't know their own ancestor language. To the Europeans and Americans, re-education is inhumane, but from the Han Chinese point of view, you should be glad to give up your barbaric ways and become civilised. The entire Chinese civilisation and culture is about re-education. Russians are europeans and white supremacists, it's impossible for Russians to have a real alliance with China. It's easier for Australians and Americans in the left with a multi-cultural society to have an alliance with China. That's why the existing geopolitics is a sham.
Bottom for now but after the right shoulder is formed could take another dive. Head and shoulders is usually a bearish trend. Keep your finger on the sell and be ready!!
Unfortunately for Ukraine, it is still suffering the post-Soviet economic downfall. Indeed, the EU is just exploiting Ukraine, they don't care about the people. But if this country would join the EU, they would have more votes than the Netherlands + Belgium + Sweden + Austria together. And, the Ukraine would have as many poor people as 14x Albania (which by the way is more prosperous than Ukraine, and has a "poor country" reputation). The GDP of the Ukraine is smaller than the GDP of either: Ireland, Denmark, Hungary, Portugal or Greece, which are much smaller countries with smaller populations. Belgium, for example has a GDP 3x bigger than Ukraine. Ukraine has 42 million inhabitants, that's more than Greece + the Czech Rep. + Hungary + Portugal. Yet, either one of the above has a bigger GDP. The EU wants migrants from outside Europe, Eastern Europeans are "too expensive" as work force (but at least they are hard-working). Many Ukrainians work in EU countries. If the Ukraine joins the EU, it would be 5th biggest "power" due to its size and thus, number of votes, but it's terribly poor, corrupt and with high crime rate. The immediate result would be that Ukrainians would immediately move to Western EU countries for better life. Because, being an EU member it also means that people can move to any country and get jobs anywhere. Well, the day they join, Ukrainians would simply "jump ship", move to "the West". There used to be a song called "Go West" in the early '90s, it was hilarious, but today indeed, many Eastern Europeans have already moved to the western parts of Europe or, are planning to. With so much effort, the EU could simply allow Ukraine, Russia and Turkey to join. But no, this will never happen
For those saying Ukraine is a 'useless' country. I've always known it to be the 'fruit bowl' of Europe's east. Food security and Agri could be huge strategic advantage for the future of that region. Wiki: Ukraine, commonly known as the breadbasket of Europe, has over a quarter of the world's chernozem or “black earth” and 54 percent of its land is arable according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Indeed, they seem to have good soil. However, the agriculture is not developed. Investments are needed. Still, agriculture is not the most financially-productive sector of any economy. Just see the "banana republics". Ukraine has no other significant resources, although it has a huge population. Due to their bad relations with Russia, they now have to buy expensive gas from Western Europe. Sadly, "the West" doesn't care about the Ukrainians, they should come with investments.
