2020 Collapse

Discussion in 'Markets & Economies' started by TreasureHunter, Dec 8, 2019.

  1. silverhair

    silverhair Well-Known Member

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    Gold and silver has been through famine , wars, recessions, depressions, political collapses etc.... over the last 5000 years.

    Nothing has changed and they will still both be around once this China thing sorts itself out and trump is committed to a mental home.
     
  2. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    WHO is literally a mainstream news channel with terrible coverage and poor show hosts. It's worse than the CNN.
    Besides talking and scaring everyone, they're not doing anything useful.
     
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  3. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    If we consider PM's as long term savings' assets, then they're good for a REAL private pension fund. You hold it, you own it. It's like owning land.

    When you get old, you'll be happy when checking your bullion bars and coin collections.

    You'll be able to live the life many others only dream of! Vacations... vacations...

    PM's are also great for emergency funds. And many other things!
     
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  4. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that as far as I know, gold did not follow the pace of inflation in Venezuela (I can't recall the exact numbers, but I did make a post a few years ago about the subject). I think gold went 200-250 % up, which is insufficient to cover the value loss vs. the Bolivar's hyperinflation.

    But in 2008, we've seen a more "favorable" scenario.

    I do not know the exact cause/explanation for why gold didn't go high enough in Venezuela. If someone understands more about it, then let me know.

    Regardless, it's hard to imagine what one could do with gold during a worst case hyperinflation scenario.

    Suppose you get a trunk-load of paper currency (which the bank/dealer doesn't have anyway, because there's little paper money available) or you get it transfered to your account... what you do next is probably to shop it all away, because it makes no sense holding it. Money will lose its value in 24 h.

    Another thing I do not understand about Venezuela: didn't people have the possibility to use debit cards? News shows people carrying bags of cash, but not using any cards. I suppose this is just a "media hack". They love showing shocking things to us. But it's hard to understand whether electronic payments were or weren't available.
     
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  5. Krakked789

    Krakked789 Active Member

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    Seemed like a pretty lazy, unconcerned vibe at the shopping centre today (Melbourne). The supermarket shelves were full to the brim. I decided to start seriously piling up the pantry with cans, cans and more cans! I don't particularly like canned anything, but in a supermarket run soup slops would probably taste divine!
     
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  6. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    What I read about venezuala said that commodities rose 5000x, gold rose 25000x. It went up like always but I'm not sure how many owned gold. Its unaffordable to most everyone there now and was up almost 4 million percent last time I looked, silver almost up 3 million percent.
    I believe they had a confiscation in 2012?
     
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  7. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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  8. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Here's Nicolas Maduro showing (and promoting the purchase of-) a Venezuelan gold bar:



    "...time goes by and the gold stays, gold is for the people..."
     
  9. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    I guess their gold mines were nationalized which isnt much different.
    Not the same as the confiscation America had.
    I'm going to look up the current price of au.
     
  10. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    Almost 117 million Bolivars for an oz of au.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  11. JohnnyBravo300

    JohnnyBravo300 Well-Known Member

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    It seems like they have different currencies. Makes it confusing!
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  12. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    From the HK protests to near Iran war to Pandemic virus, the past year has been crazy and makes me wonder what will be next?
     
  13. heartastack

    heartastack Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    a large asteroid or Bernie sanders victory would spice things up for sure
     
  14. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Currently we're facing the following trends:

    1. Corona panic: people around the world are panicking and hoarding food, masks, medicine
    2. hysteria ignites violence: cases of racism against Chinese, but also violence against coughing people (there were cases of violence against people who were coughing in public places)
    3. prices rise: some shops (including online shops) are increasing prices (either greed-driven or, in order to tackle the overwhelming number of orders/visits)
    4. some products disappeared completely: no masks, no hand sanitizers, no toilet paper, no paper tissues in some places...
    5. currencies affected (several countries): many currencies are losing ground (apparently, the EUR and USD are doing well)
    6. massive-quarantining, border lockdowns, flight cancelations, etc.


    Possible implications, consequences during the spring/summer period:

    1. various economies will experience recession as a result of the heavily affected industries (lower exports, lower production), transportation (due to road, railway, flight cancellations, it is obvious why the entire segment will be affected) etc.
    2. supply chain interruptions, lack of certain goods (due to quarantines - the ones in China especially...)
    3. currency devaluation through inflation + consumer price inflation (fewer, but more expensive goods, yet the demand will stay high due to panic/hysteria): here it's important to note that less "cheap" goods will arrive from China, so naturally they will have to be obtained from elsewhere (and thus, the prices will climb); imagine anything from garlic to laptops could cost substantially more
    4. further spread of the Corona virus?
    5. the travel industry decline: countries thriving on tourism will suffer the most, as will all branches of the economy and companies tightly connected to it (tour operators, catering firms, HORECA etc.)
    6. new supply chains will appear: in order not to buy from China, some companies/countries will find new suppliers for certain goods and, some of these new supply chains/routes will remain, which means China will still loose a portion of the market
    7. bank runs: as a result of further hysteria (this time due to economic issues)
    8. gold's price will rise: the second phase will be the economic downturn (if not something else), which will empower gold as a hedge against currency devaluation
    9. more violence
    10. political decisions "under the radar": "things" will keep happening, as many major powers will take advantage of the Corona/economic crisis-enduced media mess (Russia/USA/EU/etc. will be able to "slip things through" and you won't notice it... until you go to Zerohedge :D )
    11. massive migrant waves to Europe - as Erdogan lets them go through and/or he can't stop them either (some countries might resort to extreme measures at the borders)
    ...fill out the blank...

    What do you think?
     
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  15. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    For some reason, politics doesn't suit Bernie.
    He should sell broccoli smoothies in Detroit or, he could play in The Muppets... but perhaps being the next US president after a puppet like Obama and a cartoon character like Trump is even more hilarious.
     
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  16. forgedinfire

    forgedinfire Member

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    If I recall correctly I think Bernie said in his youth as an activist or something that no one should earn over a million dollars and there should be a tax of 100% on the earnings over that or something, guess what he earned in some of the recent years haha...
     
  17. pennys

    pennys Member

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    I think you're overanalyzing. The market is panicked and pretty irrational. On Monday you might see a 'buy the dip' similar to 12 months ago (futures market is betting this way) or total panic similar to 33 years ago.
     
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  18. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    "The Panic of '08" - sounds familiar?

    Markets can crash if the panic is strong enough. I hope that Corona somehow gets contained and doesn't spread.
     
  19. TreasureHunter

    TreasureHunter Well-Known Member

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    Rich haters are Leninist-Marxist-Stalinist-Communist criminals.

    There's nothing wrong with the rich, nothing wrong solely with having money. It's behavior that makes the difference.

    It's a dumb myth to believe that "the rich steal from the poor".

    Some people are poor, because they're lazy, dumb, sheeple.

    Some people become rich because they invent some great business model or they find a productive way to earn more than others.

    This black and white thinking makes my stomach turn. Bernie is an instigator. Can go hand-in-hand with Mrs.Clinton/Piggy.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. sgbuyer

    sgbuyer Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You got it right! I’m of the opinion this may just be a market correction. Sure, it is going to squeeze supply and demand for 2-3 months but as temperatures rise, the disease is less contagious and dangerous. The market is forward looking. There maybe more dumps in the next couple of weeks but it will be all over by mid-April.

    Not going to buy the dip anyway. I’m a long term investor, wanna hold minimum 5-10 years.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
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