Yesterday I picked up the previous Thursday's WA paper for something to read, and flicking through the pages without much thought, strangley I landed on the one page which mattered to me and which had an article talking about how Def Leppard will be playing in Perth in October of this year. Wanted very badly to buy tickets but will have to wait 'till they get to Melbourne. Anyway, it wasn't until this morning while reading other forums that I had the feeling of deja vu. - In 2008 I finished a job in August. In 2011 I will be finishing my current job in July. - In 2008 Def Leppard toured Australia in October. In 2011 they will also be touring Australia in October. - In 2008 I was buying stocks. In 2011 I am buying silver. What hasn't happened yet: - In 2008 there was a stock market crash. In 2011 the stock market................. - In 2008 silver plummeted to USD$9 per ounce or thereabouts. In 2011 silver.............. Up to now I have been buying silver with each paycheck, but now after having this dejavu feeling I am thinking of pooling my paychecks so that I can buy low if silver plummets again this year as it did in 2008. How does 2011 compare for everyone else ?
That last one was post 500. But to contribute something else... Looking at charts to the lead up to GFC1, I always got that feeling the market was just repeating the same thing. On purpose of course. Also, sometimes I think the mining boom is just a black hole for money that could be used elsewhere. All these junior miners popping up, raising capital from superfunds/individuals and ultimately hard working people, just to burn the money by paying huge salaries for non productive endevours. Considering not all explorers will be successful, that's a deep hole that is being dug. It's potentially diluting the wealth of this country. Hard worker producing tangible outcomes -> Superfund -> Explorer -> Payment to miners/fat cats which may or may not produce tangible outcomes -> Mortgages I suppose I have my doubts as to how many are genuinely aiming to get productive. Obviously genuinely looking for deposits is proactive and a necessity, but I suspect some explorers true aim is just to live off the capital raisings rather than really get anywhere with exploring. ha ha, [del]or maybe[/del] I'm just being pessimistic Edit: Definitely pessimistic @_@
Damn it I sooo am thinking of pre order dragons but am thinking "1 Silver in had is worth 2 silver in the bush (or 3 mo time)" , hang on its going to be a wild ride!
I can't trust my instincts anymore (because I'm so far removed from the mainstream) so I use "measurables" like; Commodity price charts that show graphs that have mimicked 2008 and prices are equal to or post their '08 records. Classifieds listings showing increasingly that Bogans are dumping their toys like crazy (Motorbikes, Boats, jet-skis, 4wd's) Increasing number of Newspaper articles about the cost of living sqeeze. Although unlike 2008, there isn't the same outcry about fuel prices, even though we're now paying the same prices as just 3 years ago.
The news out of the US is not good. QE-2 ends in 18 days. Will there be QE-3? Who knows. But even with QE-2 the US economy is still looking like a smoker aged 75.
I think this is flawed thinking. If the broader markets begin tanking, you will see all metals take hits, including gold, as hedge funds/investment banks once again sell off their positions to meet redemption obligations. Gold would likely be the least impacted compared to equities and other metals, but it would more than likely move lower still. No matter what, when markets get choppy there is a perception that cash is king, even when currencies are being devalued by government monetary policies.
Mining is a risky investment, but you get compensated for the risk you take by the huge potential upside. As long as the gains from the successful ventures are slightly greater than the losses on the unsuccessful ones (+ cost of capital), then you are ahead
Indeed. We gotta remember that "tin foil hat wearing" is not the norm out there. The traders - i.e the majority - who don't give two cons about the stuff we do will run for the hills, selling out off all forms of paper to cover their leverage in a crashing market. Therefore, as the market value of gold/silver is mainly influenced by paper trading, spot will most likely take a dive. Unless something magical happens and the traders decided to share our take on the SHTF scenarios, expect the worst but hope for the best. It will be a wild ride
That's understandable, and I have factored it into my ponderings. My concern is for the national point of view rather than my portfolio. In other words, I feel that there will not be enough success stories to cover the losses from a national point of view. Whenever I look at IPOs there's about 5 - 10 juniors floating. Everyone wants in on the mining boom, and I don't _feel_ they are all genuine :/ As for my portfolio, I don't get into junior mining companies. I don't think they'll survive the GFC2 (They don't really suit my strategy anyway, GFC2 or not. =_=)
We are getting close to the 7% drop area. That has been about the maximum drop Bernanke has allowed for the market the last couple of years. We will soon know if the game is changed for a little while.
google martin armstong http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Is the End Near 06-05-2011.pdf Explains his theory on June 13th/14th as the "turning point" Hiho is this where your sig came from?
Google Elizabeth Bradly ...watch the end of the middle class....tells why americans are finding it hard today with facts and figures Sorry I can't provide a link as I am not a real IT person....If you find it interesting, you may provide a link...fellow SS members might appreciate it Regards Errol43
I was in the US during the 2008 meltdown. Right before it happened, I stared noticing the shop closures. I didn't understand why, the economy was doing great wasn't it? Well it was a huge wake up call for me and thats when I started buying gold and later silver. Walking down the streets here now in Australia in 2011, I get the same sense I did in 2008 in the US. Only this time around I'm completely aware of the financial world around me. I was in a wine shop talking about this to the guy selling wine from his winery, and another couple came in and overheard, they wanted to know more. They sensed it as well, but of course they said they had no idea. Well the TV says everything is fine, not to worry. So I guess it is.... until it isn't then everyone claims they saw it coming. Reminds me of these nuff nuffs on CNBC.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0YTY5TWtmU
For those thinking that 2011 will be similar to 2008, there are some large differences. The main difference is liquidity. In 2008, it was contracting and in 2011 it is expanding. Also, 2012 is an election year with an incumbent US President running for reelection. BO, does not want a weak stock market in 2012. Maybe Bernanke thinks he can drop the market for a while in 2011 and reflate it in 2012. Bernanke is an elitist idiot and a loose cannon, so anything is possible.
Its like this in the area i live in. Small businesses for sale everywhere. I spoke with one of the owners and she was saying there is no money in small business at the moment. Her husband owns a real estate agency and lists all the businesses for sale. In the last year the number has doubled.
Basically, I try to maintain my holdings as below: 39% cash (high interest accounts) 1% cupronickel coins (20cent coins mainly) 10% dividend paying stocks (only those with a dividend yield of 10% [or close to it]) 15% gold 35% silver As primary income arrives, it is distributed in the above fashion. Since I'm on "hold mode" while I wait for GFC2, the cash based holdings have been increasing rather than the other holdings. I see that as temporary though, since I'll be using that cash on PMs and targeted stocks when GFC2 hits. I'm a low-risk, long-term buy/hold kinda guy - who wears a tin foil hat. I'm anti-debt and pro-productivity. I don't use leverage and have never been in debt. All funding is through my own productivity rather than "recycling" positions. Since I abide by those beliefs personally, I look for companies that follow a similar approach. Of course, it's very rare or impossible to find a company with no debts, but there are some with small debts which are likely to be paid off based on their specs. I stick to dividend paying stocks because most companies paying good, stable dividends tend to have a solid business model (translates to productivity) which will continue to provide supplemental income. In fact, I'm solely into stocks for the dividends. While the capital gains may be a bonus, I don't base my buying decisions on capital gains. Partly, this is because I like to hold long-term and am not looking to day trade on the movements. I believe low-volatility is a consequence of a stable business, and that's exactly what I look for. Besides, PMs can serve the purpose of capital gains. Also, I prefer low volume stocks where possible. An example of one of my holdings is Lemarne Corporation (LMC). Previous div yields are: 2008 - 8.72% 2009 - 15.33% 2010 - 21.21% (Based on SP at the time of Div payment) Commsec currently report them as having a 17.4% div yield. I should mention that this period's dividend was cut, which was unexpected, but the reason given is decent. They have a strong position and want to scope out some opportunities. I think if they don't find anything worthwhile they'll pay out a tidy div next period. So yea, that's the sort of company I aim for. I stay away from consumer discretionary, mining, marketing, finance and real estate companies. They either don't pay high enough dividends, have too much debt or are in an industry heading for a collapse. The gold is "hold forever". I would only sell gold if the capital gains provide for a primary need. I am prepared to sell silver for capital gains towards cash holdings, but not while the economy is going through dangerous times. It will be useful in a SHTF scenario. In light of that I see most of it long-term, but there is a short-medium term portion I consider my trading portion. Some might say the trading portion would be best in paper silver. I prefer to keep even the trading portion in physical because if something goes wrong, I get to keep a consolation prize The trading portion will be sold on the run-up to GFC2 unless I find a reason to hold it. 20cent coins are a long-shot play on cupronickel in the very distant future, but its primary purpose is actually to have cash on hand in a time of chaos. I could keep notes so as not to take up much space, but I'd prefer to keep my physical cash in metal At least it has more physical value than the notes due to metal content. I'm prepared for the next time NAB or other banks pull another bank error (not in our favour). Another part of my strategy is how I use interest and dividend payments. When I was in "buy mode", I would buy PMs with the supplemental income. Now that I'm on "hold mode", I let bank interest compound and direct dividend payments to high interest accounts. When I exit "hold mode" and get back into "buy mode" when GFC2 hits, my targets for my stock quotas are: -Bega Cheese -Woolworths I am prepared to go with lower div yields in the case of these 2 stocks (esp. woolies) for one important reason: They deal in a primary need - food. They will have higher chances of survival in a SHTF scenario. Marketing companies selling ring tones will be toast. I think that about wraps up my strategy. It's definitely not a get-rich-quick scheme, but at least for me it works and I have not made any losses yet, only steady profits. Of course, outside of investing, tin foil hat wearing means stacking non-perishables etc.., but that's another story
