Was listening to an interview where Gerald Celente predicts a stock markets crash around the world in 2015. He usually doesn't put a date on his predictions. http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-8-8-15/ I remember what happened in 2008. The stock market wasn't pretty. Silver and gold also crashed. But that was then... My question is if the major world stock markets crash in 2015 what would happen to the price of silver?
I envy all you people that can accurately predict the future - you must be multi millionaires by now I have NFI what will happen - surprises tend to be, well, surprising
I don't think the idea of an upcoming crash is crazy, if it happens and people need to free up cash it can only mean 1 thing for metals regardless of their current price.
It's not rocket science. Participants will be scrambling to meet margin calls. The easiest thing to liquidate for fast cash will be PM's. Price drops as sellers outstrip buyers. Simples.
As a kid in the fifties, the Great Depression was an era most adults had lived through and had stories to tell. On the weekend I drove past some viaducts in Annandale, Sydney, and pointed out to my friend that during the depression corrugated iron was used to build shelters by the homeless underneath the arches. I think that if there is another GFC, it may lead to another depression. If so, food, water, petrol, shelter and cash will be the major requirements for the first few months. Having said that, I will look at increasing my reserves from two to three months. As to silver, if the banks have bailed in everyone's money, it might be worth a thousand dollars an ounce, but who will have the cash to buy it? At best, in the early months, it can be used for barter. Fractionals, like fifties, will be the order of the day.
Nice perspective Mr sammy! So in a great depression type situation one should be aware that there will probably be a period when silver's value will only be as a bartering mechanism. Makes sense. Having said that, my gut feeling is that the next stock market down turn will not be the big one. Actually, as I'm typing this, I am realizing that Jim Rogers was the one who said that (recently). I guess I bought into what he said more than I thought... LOL.
Very difficult to predict the exact outcome but if I were a trader, which I am, my money would be on an initial price decline. My reasoning, industry accounts for approximately 60% of global silver consumption. A GFC/Depression event would decrease consumption, which would decrease production, which would decrease the industrial demand for silver. Central bank stimulus or other forms of intervention would change my view, as well as long term decreases (mine closures) in supply. I've been on the wrong side of trades many times, so who knows, I might be wrong on this one too.
That is a trillion dollar question. I can assume it will go up to AUD25 oz as AUD might be lower against USD. While USD might increase in buying power the gap might be even higher so AUD25 is not hard to assume within a month from now on?!??? I am not a financial planner. Dont act on my advice. Let me know if you do have 10oz and a kilo silver bars for sale All the best!
Mr Hampster, I guess anyone who has been a market participant has been on the wrong side of a trade a time or two. But I think your logic is sound. Also, there is a very interesting dynamic going on right now with China unpegging its currency, allegedly under-reporting its gold accumulation and its stated intention to become part of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). I'm only familiar with the talking points of these subjects but it seems to me that they too could cause the same pattern you mention above to come to pass. Especially if gold becomes part of the SDRs at a some point like James Rickards has theorized about.
