1oz silver Panda vs 1oz silver Lunar Dragon

Discussion in 'Modern Chinese Coins & Medallions' started by Trichter, Sep 8, 2011.

  1. au_ag_miner

    au_ag_miner Member

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    First, we need to establish what we mean by the term 'outperform'.

    In the short, mid and long term, given a mintage of 300,000 vs 6,000,000, key date of the series vs an ordinary issue, I would see 2012 Dragon costing more than a 2011 or 2012 Panda. Does it mean Dragon has outperformed Panda?

    We would then have to look at what is the buy price of the collector. Did he pay $50 for Panda and then it moved up to $60? And he paid $200 for Dragon and it came down to $150 when the dust settle. Does this scenario mean Panda outperformed Dragon?
     
  2. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    Here are some sources for fake panda information:

    http://www.pandacollector.com/rogue.html

    http://reviews.ebay.com/Guide-to-De...hinese-Panda-Coins_W0QQugidZ10000000002807263

    http://www.pandausa.com/fake-panda-list.html

    http://s185.photobucket.com/albums/x229/TomD77/fake pandas/ (you might recognize the photographer)

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=84588 (See the post #6 by Orbtofon. He mentions that the fake pandas were in fake NGC slabs. I suspect many of the pandas being sold on ebay are fakes in fake slabs)
     
  3. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    It's kind of like saying you won't get an iPhone because of all the fake iPhones or stolen iPhones on eBay.

    I've said it extensively and I'll say it again, Pandas fakes are not terribly hard to spot for people who do their research and avoid eBay.

    Even if you want to use eBay, there are plenty of US sellers with very high feedback on eBay that sell slabbed pandas, you should be buying of those guys if you really want slabbed pandas.
     
  4. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    fishball, most people will not do the research. To me, that means the panda prices will be affected as many people will just avoid them. You can see the affect of the "fake Chinese" syndrome now on a lot of US stock listings for Chinese based companies. I had stopped buying pandas even before the large increase in mintage. When I saw the posts last year about people from China contacting SS members to offer fake NGC slabs, I put 2 & 2 together and got fake slabbed pandas. Brilliant idea actually. The fakes will be much harder to detect in the slabs and the selling prices will be higher. Win-win for the criminals.
     
  5. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    The only 'research' I've ever done is look at the price and look at seller's reputation/feedback then I put 2+2 together and it becomes obvious if they are selling fakes. So far it's worked 100%. If 'most people' are too stupid to do this, then they will most likely buy German Silver or other 999 mills crap but I don't see that affecting prices of Silver bars.

    There are fake coins out there surely, but I don't think the value of the legit coins will be affected. Check out the prices on the 1984 Pagoda set and you will see what I mean.

    If you are buying 2010/2011 pandas it's pretty safe if you exercise common sense, there are less fakes around for newer years because the majority of the fakes are the high priced items such as 2000 frosted/mirrored pandas.

    Anyway, Sinophobia is a common thing among people and their sentiment of 'fake Chinese stuff' is never going to change. Doesn't mean that everything from China is a poor investment though and honestly couldn't care less about "most people" since I wouldn't be selling my super rare Pandas to some pleb on the street.

    I think ^^^ is something most bullion stackers don't understand. Basically there is no shortage of informed buyers (numismatic "stackers") out there for Pandas and other Chinese coinage.

    Stacking Pandas is not for SHTF or fiat collapse. It is an investment for potential gains with the safety net being the underlying metal value. That is why I stack a lot of Gold fractional pandas, their legitimacy is easy to tell and they are reasonably priced above spot and they have a massive upside potential judging from other Chinese coin series.

    Avoiding a market entirely based on the premise of "oh it may be fake so it'll be hard to sell later" isn't exactly smart investing but then again nor is jumping in blindly because "it'll be fine there aren't that many fakes!".

    dccpa brings up some very valid points and I believe stackers should take into consideration both sides before committing to buying Pandas.

    Do your research!
     
  6. Dynoman

    Dynoman Active Member

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    Just got hold of a ratty old frosted 2000, that means I now have an example of each year 1oz silver Panda coin back to 89 which seems to the easiest to get hold of for some reason ? I have multiples of some years and some proof versions so I've done pretty well. Pre 89 prices verge on aristocratic. I'd have to be lucky to get into that arena.
     
  7. fishball

    fishball New Member Silver Stacker

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    Amazing... pics!!!!! :D
     
  8. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    just wonder how much for a BBQ Panda. :)
     
  9. Dynoman

    Dynoman Active Member

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    Cheers yeah I'll have to do that soon.
     
  10. dccpa

    dccpa Active Member

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    Depends. If you are rich, about $100,000. If you are poor, the death penalty.
     
  11. mrslick32

    mrslick32 New Member

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    I just saw this thread. Great post Yennus! In my opinion, one has to spend some time doing research if one wants to invest in any asset. The pandas are no different. Once you get used to the look of the real pandas, the fakes won't be hard to spot. I've been buying a lot of panda coins on ebay over the years and I have never bought a fake coin. In addition to what Yennus said, here are a few other tips on how to spot fakes:

    1) They have no denomination.
    2) The quality is noticeably lower compared to real pandas. How do you compare? You can look at pictures of real pandas graded by NGC or PCGS. There are a lot on ebay or the internet.
    3) Weigh the coins. Based on my experience a real 1 oz. panda will weigh around 1.16 to 1.26 troy ounces based on the weight of the capsule and mint seal (if available). A fake panda will weigh a lot less. I've also confirmed the range of the weight of the capsule and mint seal because I have some left behind when I sent my pandas for grading.

    In response to the post that said that the 2000 panda is expensive at $400, in my humble opinion, there is a reason why people are willing to pay that much. First of all, the panda coins are so well made. In addition, it's a great investment. You pay a lot but the potential returns are also high. I bought a 12 oz panda in 2009 for around $450 and it was expensive at that price during that time. I also it in 2011 for $1,300 and my selling price was relatively cheap (compared to the market price in 2011), which is the reason why I sold the coin so quickly. My coin also had small white spots (which I disclosed in the listing) so I had to sell it for a lower price. I think that almost tripling your money in a span of two years is a good investment. :) That being said, I don't expect relatively common pandas (2010 and 2011) to see that kind of appreciation. However, it gives you an idea of the investment potential of pandas in general. ;)
     
  12. alor

    alor Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I was hoping for a free meal, in case the zoo caught fire, then I can go in and have a taste of the BBQ Panda :p Roasted one :cool:
     
  13. comeaux

    comeaux New Member Silver Stacker

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    Most excellent post mrslick :D
     
  14. meeko2011

    meeko2011 Member

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    Hey Yennus my neighbor is very very HAPPY with his new 2011 100 Panda's he was patting them this afternoon :) I think he wants some 2010 Panda's now
    Thanks for your help
    Meeko
     

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