$100 Factual Silver Prediction based on Debt Projection

Silver2012 · Nov 11, 2012

Hey guys, this is a great silver prediction because it uses factual data to project where silver will likely be trading in a few years. If our economy continues on the same path as the past 4 years, then silver will likely be trading at around $100 by 2017.

My personal opinion: AT LEAST $100 by 2017. What's your prediction?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2i_2Ulod08Q[/youtube]

finicky · Nov 11, 2012

A prediction might be based on facts, but a prediction itself can never be factual

I suspect at least a 100 dollars within 5 years

bordsilver · Nov 11, 2012

I'm guessing this is the text version of the video:

http://www.silverseek.com/article/100-silver-yes-when-7471

Key bit is the table

GE Christenson said:

There are many predictions for the price of silver. Some say it will crash to nearly $20, and others proclaim $100 by the end of 2012. The problem is that some predictions are only wishful thinking, others are obvious disinformation designed to scare investors away from silver, and many are not grounded in hard data and clear analysis. Other analysis is excellent, but both the process and analysis are difficult to understand. Is there an objective and rational method to project a future silver price that will make sense to most people?

Yes, there is!

I am not predicting a future price of silver or the date that silver will trade at $100, but I am making a projection based on rational analysis that indicates a likely time period for silver to trade at $100 per ounce. Yes, $100 silver is completely plausible if you assume the following:

= The US government will continue to spend in excess of $1 Trillion per year more than it collects in revenue, as it has done for the previous four years, and as the government budget projects for many more years.

= Our financial world continues on its current path of deficit spending, debt monetization, Quantitative Easing (QE), weaker currencies, war and welfare, ballooning debts, and business as usual.

= A massive and devastating financial and economic melt-down does NOT occur in the next four to six years. If such a melt-down occurs, the price of silver could skyrocket during hyperinflation or stagnate under a deflationary depression scenario.

Still with me? I think most people will accept these simple and rather obvious assumptions.

Many individuals find it difficult to believe any projections for silver, either higher or lower, because silver is hated, loved, often ignored, and seldom recognized as another currency. However, most people know that the US government national debt is huge and will grow much larger during the next decade. Examine the following graph:

<graph>
National debt is plotted on the left axis yes, it was larger than $16 Trillion as of September 30, 2012. Silver is plotted on the right axis. The data covers an 11 year span from September 2001 through September 2012. This period includes the time after the stock market crash of 2000, the game-changing events of 9-11, the real estate crash, and the new bull market in commodities. Each month represents one data point. Note the similarity between the two trends. The statistical measure R-Squared for this 11 year period of monthly data is 0.838 quite high. R-Squared increases to about 0.90 if national debt is correlated to the monthly price of silver after it has been smoothed with 9 month moving average.

<blah blah go read the article >
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$100 Factual Silver Prediction based on Debt Projection

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$100 Factual Silver Prediction based on Debt Projection

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