“ High Probability of Silver Going Exponential”

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Lustre, Apr 11, 2020.

  1. Lustre

    Lustre Member

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    No, it’s not Ted Butler or Mike Maloney, it’s ABC Bullion!
    https://www.abcbullion.com.au/investor-centre/pdf/look-very-closely-at-silver#.XpDssi_SWfB

    “The price action in silver has us licking our lips and feeling quite confident that the recent spanking from $18.50 to $11.50 in less than a month will mark a significant multi-year low for the silver market.

    “Silver investors in 2011 would have seen a 77% decline from the peak to the significant low last month at $11.50, which we think has a very high probability of being looked back on in a few years as one of the best buying opportunities not only in silver but any asset class for the next few years.

    At the very recent $11.50 low the ratio peaked at 125:1, which is unheard of. The likelihood of silver outperforming gold is even better than the 2008 low in the market, so moving forward silver is our pick of all precious metals for the next 24 months.

    In the short-run silver should get some support on the supply side with Mexico’s one-month shutdown expected to reduce newly mined silver supply (Mexico produces 23% of global silver), following similar lockdowns in South Africa, Peru, Argentina and Quebec.

    The economic fundamentals for silver moving forward include both a recovery of industrial demand after the COVID crisis is over, and resurgence in investment demand as a result of inflation fears.

    BMO Capital Markets sees a new role for silver in the decade to come with its “use in 5G and photovoltaic related technology will increasingly position it as an infrastructure commodity”
     
  2. Stoic Phoenix

    Stoic Phoenix Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Glad you pointed that out because they should surely present an unbiased opinion. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
     
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  3. Lustre

    Lustre Member

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    .
     
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  4. willrocks

    willrocks Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    That's why I come to Silver Stackers. To get unbiased opinions on unbiased opinions. :D
     
  5. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Caution:
    1. They have a vested interest, so it may as well be M. Baloney or Ted Butt-hurts.
    2. They know, being permabulls, they have been consistently wrong:- "It is true that we have been bullish on silver throughout last year based on the ratio to gold, but despite this silver has continued to be an underperformer."
    3. They don't know the difference between a spike and a parabolic rise, and they are using the permabull rhetoric buzz-word "parabolic" to sound credible to other permabulls.
     
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  6. Agnostic

    Agnostic Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Just to clarify the headline, are we going exponentially up or down ;)
     
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  7. 66rounds

    66rounds Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Let's just say this article has convinced me to look at silver.
    I pick up physical which is going for roughly $30/Oz now.
    In two years time I have amassed 500oz at $15k AUD. The ratio breaks back down to 70:1. What is the game plan? Will I be finding buyers for my silver at 80:1 and slowly moving the stack to gold? Will I be waiting on a prayer for 30:1 and a cashed up bulk buyer?

    In that two years I could have dropped 15k into gold and forgotten about it for a definite return. No anxiety over finding a buyer.
     
  8. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Oh shit, I just realised Bron was co-author!!!???
    I am devastated.... has he crossed to the other side?
    He was the single best source of reality and facts this forum had (has?).
     
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  9. Golightly

    Golightly Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Silver also has a lot of medical uses, that may see a boom as well
     
  10. Agnostic

    Agnostic Active Member Silver Stacker

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    So far, the phrase "silver going viral" has meant the price getting sick.
     
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  11. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I'm sensing prejudice. :p
     
  12. bron.suchecki

    bron.suchecki Well-Known Member

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    In the market update John generally does the price/forecast commentary and I do the more general stuff, so that view more reflected John's position than mine. Having said that, while I'm not as aggressive as John I do think that silver is undervalued (although I did feel that at ratio of 85) as anything above 100 is just historically unprecendented. At the moment pro traders are focused on silver's industrial demand destruction and not appreciating the investment demand angle.

    I think that gold and silver's initial correction mainly reflected margin call action but the professional market commentary I am seeing is all about the inflationary potential of all the stimulus the governments are doing, so I think institutional (smart money) investors are moving into gold to get protection - an indicator of which is the divergence of Comex futures from spot, shows that US money is going long gold (futures are their favoured vehicle for doing that). At some point that money is going to see silver as relatively undervalued and that video from Minerd is an indication of how those institutional investors think. Don't forget Buffet bought (physical) silver at one time when it was cheap.

    I would also note the ratio does not guarantee that the prices of the metals will go up - the ratio can fall by silver just falling less than gold! I don't see that as a highly likely scenario but it is a risk factor if we get hit by another big drop in markets and another sell everything reaction. I do have a special report on trading the ratio in my to-do list, which would mention that aspect about using the ratio but it is a bit complex of an idea to get across in a short weekly note.
     
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  13. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    From my reading of sources I respect, this is the elephant in the room. And because CB's are reactionary, inflation may very well get ahead of their capacity to respond and therefore control.
     
  14. systematic

    systematic Well-Known Member

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    People need to get it through their thick skulls that when the crooks run the books the price of pm's is going nowhere ...
     
  15. Holdfast

    Holdfast Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    So, Wall Street will rally, then it will crash, dragging gold silver and platinum down until margin calls are satisfied, then a move to gold once fund managers realise there's poor or nil dividends in their stock portfolio.

    Then, because of lack of jobs, industrial metals like, silver and platinum will be at a spot prices that everyone say's yippee.
    But, the real price of physical metal will skyrocket because premiums are through the roof because the supply or production can't keep up with demand.

    Add to that, countries are on edge. They have awoken. The new biological arms race has started; we'll see massive change to military systems, more robotics, more AI, and an excuse to arm with machines. New smart weapons coming.

    Democracies, re-thinking their strategies to monitor communism.
    More money for homeland defence.
    More incentives for at home industries, more self sufficiency.
    A complete overhaul of military biological warfare SOP's.
    More control of border security.
    More money going to the USA Space Force.
    Extra funds to spy agencies in country and abroad and vice versa, the commies will be introducing more electronic warfare as will the West.
    If things get worse, watch the DEFCON from 5 to 4.

    If there is preparedness, remember that in times of tension, silver has been stockpiled by governments. I forget the quantities but when the silver war stocks were sold off, it was quite a bit of metal.

    For Aussies, wow, look at our dollar, just a few weeks ago it was in the low 50's now 63.5 cents. Maybe we have another buying opportunity, if you can get metal at a cheap price. :)

    Perhaps it's best to have a slice of physical metal.
     
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  16. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Maybe if everyone washed their fkn hands more often we could avoid apocalypse. But some will never be satisfied until things get to the shoot to kill or be killed level.
    Be careful what you wish for.
     
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  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Advice. Never help yourself to the bowl of boiled peanuts at the bar.
     
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  18. wrcmad

    wrcmad Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Just curious.... do you wash your hands in a public bathroom where you have to manually turn on/off the taps?
     
  19. madaw1

    madaw1 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry-on the contrary-if you are washing your hands to often,you are killing not only bad but good bacteria (protecting your skin) as well-than we can have apocalypse....
     
  20. Eureka Moments

    Eureka Moments Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Of course I do. Perfectly safe as long as you wear rubber gloves. If no gloves forget about washing and just piss on your hands for 20 secs instead.
     
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