Could you please elaborate on how to enter a trade and put on a stop that if activated causes you to only break even? I don't see how you could enter the market, pay a fee to do so, and guarantee a sell price with a stop high enough to cover the round trip fees of the transactions all at the exact same time. Bid/ask spread and fees are causing me to see how to place this trade.
Suspect the exodus from the markets will continue this evening, before the long hold over the weekend. Happy Easter everyone -- even to you 'sneaky sideline snipers' who contribute nothing
Recent oil rally is definitely stalling and S&P is at a key level where it could meet resistance (or power through to new highs). Next week is going to be very interesting I think. Has gold consolidated enough to move back up on its own, or do we need another bout of "risk off" to kick it up the backside?
Whether you think they're cooking the numbers a little, or their policies are creating a market that caters specifically to that sort of number while important stats like labour Participation are all but ignored, then you would be expecting a beat. Somehow they just keep chugging along with mostly beats. The wild card is how the temporary Christmas jobs and seasonality impacts the number. We all remember the insane seasonal adjustment in feb. But it's the first read that will move markets, it'll all be over in a minute, 29.9 seconds before and after and millions of trades in the 2/10ths of a second after the release. Then after we'll have time to see how things really are. My guess is headline low beat, market in massive whip saw since it'll just be guys trading it, nothing that will move markets or give fed watchers or Yellen peekers anything to hold on to. Honestly it almost doesn't matter, numbers are the fed seem to dancing to a different beat even though the number will be used to move markets based on how it might impact fed rate moves.
Friday next week is my deadline, 15th April. If it doesn't happen before then I'll stop talking about it
Oil and the S&P both look very vulnerable right at the moment. Gold and the $USD have spiked (together) a bit just now flagging a safe-haven move. Do we have another terrorist event or could it be another financial squall brewing?
I haven't been paying alot of attention at the moment to indexes but have heard a few sound bites of "record level of short interest in stocks"
Thinking about strong bear asx etf...at near 6000 which I think we all knew was a nut that wasn't going to get cracked you're at near 40% return. I think even 500 points while in it could be profitable enough to make it worth while. I think plenty of other indexes are more vulnerable, but if you're strictly australian investment wise it's something to look at, just a shame you can't exclude the gold miners. I'd love a strong bear fund by industry, leveraged short australian Financials was a no brainer not long ago, could still be a good bet. Plenty of blues left, anyone watching US markets move in relation to headline jobs numbers can see a fall is coming when u6 and the real financial situation of both corps and the "average" America is so obviously different. I'm going to the states in a few months, I'll be very interested to see a few things for myself. Any country that can't have major cities water kept on and has whole states on the verge of bankruptcy (Puerto Rico isn't a state) that has people investing like it's 1999 is waiting for trouble. The Financials of private deals being done in the UK are just as worrying if not more just put the pain off a little, though the property bubble is more obvious in London than anywhere outside China...plenty of blues ahead I'm afraid and honest to god I heard someone on cnbc recommend home builders as good investments in all major markets as "the consumer and home buyer is back"... Maybe it's some just massive strange coincidence and everyone that stacks and the bears just don't know these people who are getting what they need with money to spend on consumer discretionary, houses and all sorts. Meanwhile with the trouble in the world and a bigger the defense spending promise the bigger the vote count, primary or presidential (or senatorial or other) you can't go too badly wrong with a little lockheed martin, BAE (weren't they British cluster bombs found in Yemen) or NG. LM in particular will make money in peace time hand over fist, have lots of diversification away from military stuff (lots of energy businesses) and you might not like how they do business but they get the big contracts internationally and know how to squeese every cent ultimately fir the share holder. Plus if their fusion in a shipping container turns out you'll have a bit of the biggest company in history that will make apple and their money pile look teensie weensie.
I'm still a bear but I really think the next leg down is still all about the oil price. Oil was looking vulnerable last week and some of the news coming out about production agreements is a concern (at best) but oil made another strong bounce on Friday so maybe we need to wait a bit more for the next break down. I'm liking the gold price action at the moment though. Reckon we could be in for another leg up there even if the stock market holds up for an extra week or 2. Of course if the stock market wobbles then gold goes up too....so either way I'm liking gold.....
Just have to watch the aussie, surprised they haven't faught harder to keep it down. Aud gold could end up seeing a big old push. As am I. I think you'll see a lot of money come out of strange holes into safety plays even if markets generally do ok. In a zirp/nirp and QE world things that usually happen separately can happen at once. Look at US T-bill yields, there's every possibility of a lot of money seeking positive yield and traditional safety keeping the usd up, I mean we're seeing it now. So much money going in that the 10 year is less than the stated objective of fed inflation even if they aren't hitting those targets. It takes HUGE money to move bond markets in a big way, the right/wrong wobble and some small percentage of that goes in to gold and silver you get some real action. We could be getting close to the end of cheap metal for ax while. Thing is, there's some really obvious moves, like London housing, that are bubbles close to or currently popping that are easy enough to identify, we should be able to do something with that. Maybe we're not imaginative enough.
The AUD is an afterthought for me. The big plays are overseas and they will flow through to Australia sooner or later, one way or the other. Have been looking at my alternative investments more closely today and it looks like "the planets are aligning" we have silver threatening to breakout again, gold has consolidated and looks ready for the next leg up and even Bitcoin is just finishing off the most perfect pennant formation I've ever seen. Is there some kind of key date just around the corner? All we need is a little spark. Anyone got a light?
There's plenty of sh*t coming out as always; US inflation figures out Wednesday night will give a direction of US interest rates in June US Q1 corporate season has just kicked off US Q1 GDP figures due out sometime in the next couple of weeks June is going to be a busy month for a variety of reasons too
I wouldn't count on it. I'm looking for some confirmation that the recent rally has run out of steam and I don't see it from a technical perspective at the moment.
