Every time I hear the word "bubble" I cringe. It seems everything that goes up in price is in a "bubble" especially when applied to investment classes that aren't in, or have gone out of favour. Reminds me of everything being a "Ponzi scheme" when that was the word de jour. It is true that silver and gold have risen in price. So why is it or is it not in a bubble? Because unlike other investment classes, leveraged investment in gold and silver are not features of the physical market. Bubbles occur when the paper wealth of investments skyrockets due to increased amounts of borrowed money flooding into an investment class. A bubble bursts when that illusory debt money suddenly exits the market. Precious metal investment does not have this feature (yet). In a time when deflation in the monetary supply is being noted ie debt is being repaid, and people are NOT borrowing, there cannot be the fuelling of another so called "bubble". It is probably the most abused word in economic talk. If real money enters a market, then it is unlikely to exit that market in a forced manner at a lower price. This is why I believe that we are very very remote from a gold or silver "bubble". When the sheeple are getting pm investment loans, that is when the bubble starts.
You should never ignore talk of bubbles, when we live in an age of bubbles, one after another. I don't think gold and silver are yet in a bubble but I believe silver, particularly, is heading there fast. You have to remember also what many here say of their silver, ie. "I'll sell my silver and swap for gold at a certain ratio". I'm paraphrasing but you know what I'm talking about. The potential for a silver crash, when its in a bubble, will be huge. People don't really want it the same way they want gold. I also dispute your claim about the sheeple getting investment loans, I don't think that is required.
dont think silver is in a bubble but because market is so small it can be easily manipulated by big players. For eg if i had a trillion or 2 and spent it buying real estate in oz or elsewhere i think you would consider australia is having a boom and prices of houses wwould go up if i boughtanything that came on the market and i could crash it if i decided to sell anytime
Would you consider real-estate as physical or paper tho? It is a lot easier to manipulate paper than physical and sooner or later there will come a time when that little black swan will waddle up and drop a turd on the paper manipulation of silver. Not if but when.
Yeah, I have been hearing talk of a bubble in gold and silver as well. You may hear it on the mainstream news. I was listening to an interview somewhere and he explained it pretty well: The mainstream press, and many others for that matter, couldn't see the tech bubble when they were in it or the US property bubble when they were right in it. But for some reason they can clearly see that gold is in a bubble? As some have pointed out - to be bearish on gold is to be bullish on the US dollar. Or related to this topic, for gold and silver to be in a bubble (ie. overvalued) then the US dollar must be undervalued. For my money, I will bet on gold and silver.
I don't ignore talk of bubbles in precious metals (or anything else for that matter). I don't necessarily believe the talk but I certainly don't ignore it.
Check out the news from 2002 (and earlier) about the property bubble we had to have. http://www.google.com/search?q=sydn...a=X&ei=wOdqTczLOYyYvAO_mZzkAg&ved=0CBMQpwUoCQ Been a decade, and it is only just starting to pop. Therefore, we should have a good 10 years to ride this PM bull
Bubble bubble, toil and trouble... Since I have 100% ownership of my metal and I'm not 'reliant' on a massive increase in order to hold my investment, it hardly matters what people think in the end. Unlike houses where they're just building more of them to meet demand, I don't see them making any more silver to meet the demand as it's being destroyed. I'm content to buy and hold for however long it takes and if it's not in my lifetime, I'll pass the metal to the children. Finite resource in dwindling supply meets ever increasing demand... Over 2000 listed industrial patents for silver alone at present and it's increasing every year. Bubble is a certainty as some point, but if you're not sweating on a loan to hold it, then it hardly matters. If anyone here thinks silver is in a bubble now, do yourselves a favour - put it up for sale at market value here on the forum, claim your profit at the top of the bubble market and sit back, knowing you got out just in time before it all went pop! Any takers?
I will not believe silver and gold are in a bubble until they are advertised on TV; I mean other than the creepy Monex, the right-wing fueled Goldline or Swiss America featuring the dread Pat Boone, as well as the various 'Money for Gold' ripoffs, (sorry, sorry, if they are SS sponsors, but really, do you need to phone in and talk to an 'advisor' who will pitch you over-hyped and over-priced stuff?)[Note: this is my personal option and means nothing]. I am speaking as a United States citizen , but does the Perth Mint advertise on Australian TV? When silver can be bought as easily as a Bacon Cheeseburger it might be in a bubble.
Silver is very undervalued compared to gold. And gold is still very undervalued when compared to fiat. i agree that silver is not "popular" with the sheeple, but that will change eventually once silver takes off to the moon. and it will
Oh it'll be in your lifetime! hell, it'll be in your dog's lifetime, and possibly even your goldfish's ...
All I do is counsel caution. You really don't want to get caught up in the excitement when it arrives as it's the easiest way to make bad decisions. Personally, I am still a buyer at the current price, but will be a lot more skeptical when it hits 40 and when it hits $50 I will be out as a buyer simply because it will take a rise to $100 just to double my money. I expect my place will be more than compensated for by others at that point.
