The evidence is to the contrary. Look at all the currencies that are hyperinflating now, Turkish lira, Russian ruble, Brazilian real, Venezuela bolivia.. Their governments are still in power, their banks are still open. Yet in those currencies gold is a safe heaven.
True, but then again gold is not like other commodities because it does not have a real utility other than being a store of value. Its price doesn't depend much on its yearly production because it is only a small percentage of the existing amount above ground, and this is quite a unique characteristic.
Armstrong addressed this: What he is saying is that EVERYTHING rises with inflation, so gold is just another commodity/asset, and not it's touted "safe haven" until people lose faith in the banking system and government.
True, but so what? His point was it is a commodity, no matter how useless it is in regards to utility value. I am glad you included it in the commodity category, none the less.
The fact that the yearly production cannot really create lack or surplus of offer makes it more stable than other commodities and thus a better store of value. All the gold miners could go bankrupt together and that would not affect the price of gold too much. You can't say the same for all the other commodities that are actually consumed (yes, silver included).
He says 'The "safe haven' will return ONLY when the public questions the survivability of banks and government not fiat and inflation.' Not faith, but survivability . The evidence is that governments and banks can survive just fine in hyperinflation. Look at Robert Mugabe. It's the lost of faith in fiat currency that leads to hyperinflation, and thus gold as a safe heaven. Everything rises in hyperinflation, but to variable degree. The question is which is best to maintain your purchasing power.
Interesting thread. All I know or care is I sleep better knowing that I own some Gold & Silver. And give thanks to the Gods that I have a roof over my head and food on the table and my health.
I used to be a fan of Armstrong, but one thing I've noticed is he NEVER makes any predictions, guesses, nor says what his computer model will predict. So in a sense, he just poo-poo's things already in a slump (like PM's), but since he never says what's going to happen next, he can never be wrong. From what I read online, some that paid to go to one of his past seminars (or whatever they are called) to get some insight were upset afterwards and said he only said the same stuff he puts in his online posts- no future insight. Maybe I have missed one of his correct calls, if so, I hope one of his fans lists it, or them as it may be. If he or his computer don't have any calls, then what good is he as a prognosticator? PS I was interested in him because he talks much about "cycles", which I know do exist and do exert an influence on humans. Having said that, I don't see anything his writings have to offer, other than to read criticisms he has of other "investments" and such. Never seen any "recommendations". Just my opinion. Jim
Actually have a friend who has made a boat load of money off his private messages. He's a hedge fund, and he made a killing off the call MA made at about the 18k top, shorting the market.
It's a fun topic to debate, because like politics it is very subjective. I guess in the end a species that could use cowry shells as money, and create a market for tulip flower bulbs that destroyed an economy when it collapsed is capable of pretty much anything. //grin// Edit, Okay, NEWLY DISCOVERED answer to a question I posted previously ... the answer is, yes, anyone can Edit their posts AFTER they have made 20 posts on the forum. I now have the elusive "Edit" button in the lower right corner that everyone kept telling me was there, but wasn't.
I actually think we should be holding gold, silver and Bitcoin, the next country to do a Greece will have it's better off inhabitants diversifying cash out of the system and the quickest way to get funds into something useable is probably Bitcoin. Times to not come more uncertain than they do nowadays but gold is not rocketing like is should as the traditional safe haven. There's the question of paper manipulation but Bitcoin seems to be the one spiking when bad news comes a knocking.
I think what you said is important, because as most of us know you can't just move money in and out of physical precious metal with ease even during the best of times. Sure, you can run down to the coin shop (or, etc ..) but it takes time and logistics to convert 10k AUD to silver, that's over 450 ounces at spot and if you want it in rounds or small bars it can be a challenge. During something other than the best of times, it can be nearly impossible. I'm sure there were plenty of Greeks who wished they had purchased precious metals but by the time the message was clear enough that anybody could read it, it was much too late. Edit, I would add that in the U.S. we have over the past decade already seen some soft capital controls going into place, and that's when there is no emergency.
They had plenty of warning, plenty. The availability of silver depends on where you are, it's no where near as difficult to source as you make out.
