Some elements that I take into account: - about all the silver bought for the backing of exchange traded funds during the 2009-2011 years, is still not sold, and dealers still sell as much as during the 2010-2012 years, despite the year average price tumbled down from 2011's $35 to 2013's $24 (so far), which indicates that newly produced silver not finding enough buyers caused the price drop. - the general price level doesn't move up in a degree that differs from the past. - every ounce silver bought for monetary purposes, will one day be sold, and suppress an upwards price trend. Where do current monetary silver owners wait for? Higher silver prices without higher general prices. They will sell the former away as soon as they come. Together: chances on lower silver prices. Only a seriously manifesting general price levels increase would be able to change this picture. Because then people will be less willing to sell. I think we have some years to pick out the better than $19 purchasing moments. I don't know if people will be waiting for $16 to buy, at the moment I won't. $18 is my current next goal, and what is current now, can change, since it depends on what all of us together will do. Which I try to 'measure' along stock ounce figures, futures market positions, fiatcurrencies situations etc. The thing is, everytime we stackers buy an ounce, some short term temporary buyers buy 2-3 ounces 'in the future', as to lure us into buying in subsequent uptrend. But in that future, they cancel those purchases, and hope we stackers shot our ammo in the uptrend, so that they don't face competition in the buying back in, and can fill the lower price range on their own. So, I have patience. Well, actually that 'tax raise' is just a rumor - not any official (political statement) source. And that they run out of coins, isn't true. What IS true is that alot dealers reached their foreign sales limit so that they refuse to sell to those countries because they would violate the sales tax method they voluntarely chosed. But it's the last month of the year, so this shouldn't surprise let alone make one hurry.
Well, all the dealers seem to take the tax raise as a fact (and I think it is). It is not just the foreign sales, a lot of coins are out of stock (sure they get new ones...). One example: http://www.gold-silber-muenzen-shop.de/, almost everything "red"... Actually several dealers added an euro or so to most prices this week even though spot stayed the same. Do not know what that was about, but I am happy I bought before that.
End of year ammo??? Have plenty of dry ammo left but every time I buy to lower my DCA the POS still seems to drop. I want to back up the truck but just can not decide the correct timing as I sure for once like to make a better position on silver. We all try to make a educated guess on the future POS but am a bit gun shy!!!
Found this reference from June 15 - Inconspicuously Bundestag and the Bundesrat have decided in the past week to increase the VAT on silver coins. From 1 January can be purchased at a lower rate now no more silver coins. To date was for silver coins of the reduced tax rate of seven percent. This will be increased to 19 percent from 2014. The new tax rate applies to silver bullion coins such as the Chinese Panda, Australian Kookaburra, the Silver Philharmonic, but also on silver collector coins. The change in the VAT rate for the silver coins found in the Act on the Implementation of the Mutual Assistance Directive and amending tax legislation ( Assistance Implementation Act , S. 44, 12, paragraph 2). Silver is not mentioned directly, but rather the term "works of art and collectors 'pieces' is used - and this also closer to raising here (p. 44f.)
I searched for ""Inconspicuously Bundestag and the Bundesrat have decided"" and got 2 hits on the web, the second didn't show so was probably outdated, but the first was: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=191179 This forum had its source as http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachric...ag-erhoeht-mehrwertsteuer-auf-silber-muenzen/ There (also on the forums quote) this link appears in the Google translate source: http://www.bundesrat.de/cln_340/Sha...icationFile.pdf/2013-06-05-Beschluss-TOP5.pdf and http://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/17/123/1712375.pdf I downloaded the latter, which is dated 19/02/2013. This is the referenced text google-translated to English: The text on aboves forum switches the order, 'bullion coins but also collector coins', so isn't exactly saying what the law text says, that doesn't use the word 'bullion' or any alternative for it. So the key appears to me whether or not bullion coins can be classified as art / collectors item. What is 'art' about 20, 100 let alone 500 identical coins? Does a collector collect 20, 100, 500 identical items? The word 'collection' already implies difference. It might be possible that Lunar coins (except the kilo versions maybe) and such may be considered collecting. But regular bullion? What argument did German dealers use in the past to apply the reduced tax rate to all coins? Wasn't it the legal tender currency of the face value? Quite some Netherland dealers claimed this argument for their so called 'tax free' status, while actually the reason was their choice to work under the margin based tax system. The Belgian dealer I talked about in the 7>19% German story thread, references on his invoices (I know, since I ordered several times in the past) Belgian law text that is centered around the legal tender currency notation. So all in all, this German law text doesn't prove the claim is true for bullion coins. Aside of that, what about the combination legal tender currency value and Lunar/collectible? In order to make a decision, one has to give one of the two arguments priority. My opinion, based on all I read in the past and now, is that alot dealers in recent years renamed at least a part of their sales profit % to tax that actually wasn't the case. I've been told that certain tax free selling dealers, received angry phone calls from other dealers with higher prices, to ask them to at least suggest tax. Why then this 7%>19% story popping up? Maybe the much lower silver price inflicts dealers lower profit margins, that they want to compensate with higher premiums, disguised as 'tax'?
The Comex players' total net silver position inched again up at a chosen common price (here $19,5). 24/12/2013 19686 $19.495 06/08/2013 10300 $19.43 02/07/2013 7769 $19.44 Just 2 earlier, their position was 2154x5000=10,77Moz lower while the price was $0.795 higher. 10/12/2013 17532 $20.29 This again indicates other market sides selling, with the Comex side artificially (since near to never delivered) holding up the price. This is another market side - the IShares ETF stock: 2013/12/10 328,216,037.300 2013/12/17 326,001,625.500 2013/12/24 321,814,189.100 2013/12/30 320,177,792.900 They sold 8 Moz (2.5% down) since that 10 december date of above. The Comex stock increased with 2,87 Moz (170 >172.85 Moz) between these 10 and 24 december dates. Since 24 december it further increased to 173,3 Moz, setting once again a new record high since my monitoring started end 2011. A gradual, creeping uptrend unrelated to the price trend over this period (there is a clear relation on the decade time line though). It's was 112 Moz on 15 dec 2011. The Comex stock is a kinda close to market stock, and apparently more and more silver gets stockpiled there. The gold ETF's still show continued gold outflow. IShares 2012/11/29 11.390.401,627 is now 2013/12/30 5,262,694.190 being a drop of 6,13 Moz. SPDR, which I only monitor since early august, 2013/08/06 29,486,937.62 is now 2013/12/31 25,663,578.79 being a drop of 3,82 Moz. So together, these 2 gold investment stocks dropped 10 Moz or 311 tonnes gold. So, the gold & silver markets are still in Exodus modus. Especially gold. Just think about it, if the central banks hadn't purchased close to 1400 tonnes since 2011, where would the price have been now? And thus, I'll continue waiting for some better opportunity to add again some silver. With my $30 average I have to be pecky to average down.
Not me. Quiet night at home with the wife, son has gone to the islands for New Year's Eve celebrations so I live in hope I'll get lucky. Ummmm, I think I may be OT.
Pirocco you are far too intelligent for the majority on this forum, and yet you will do very nicely in the future.
u see,that is one thing i dont get with u Pirocco.u have all these analysis down to the bone,back and forth and what not,hence ur average is still at $30/oz :/
I can only average down to the degree that I have fiat available to do so. I didn't start stacking silver while doing these 'analysis'. I started purely based on QE amounts, being a tripled money supply, so I took a tripled silver price bottom as maximum. But as later discovered... and unlike was touted all over the place...most of it stayed sterilized as excess reserves. And it's not like that I'm saying this for the first time. There are 100 metres of posts, directly or indirectly saying it.
The last COT report showing the Comex futures positions has some interesting aspects and it's also an interesting moment since the price went up shortly after the last. SILVER 31/12/2013 24772 $19.435 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16377 Short 46317 Net: -29940 SwapDealer Long 30358 Short 25190 Net: 5168 ManagedMoney Long 31779 Short 23967 Net: 7812 OtherReportables Long 10304 Short 3435 Net: 6869 SmallTraders Long 24963 Short 14872 Net: 10091 24/12/2013 19686 $19.495 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 16986 Short 44957 Net: -27971 SwapDealer Long 31574 Short 23289 Net: 8285 ManagedMoney Long 30321 Short 26996 Net: 3325 OtherReportables Long 11776 Short 3003 Net: 8773 SmallTraders Long 23121 Short 15533 Net: 7588 GOLD 31/12/2013 33021 $1205.50 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 85708 Short 80151 Net: 5557 SwapDealer Long 56130 Short 94708 Net: -38578 ManagedMoney Long 96059 Short 78334 Net: 17725 OtherReportables Long 41123 Short 26625 Net: 14498 SmallTraders Long 37617 Short 36819 Net: 798 24/12/2013 26518 $1205.30 Producer/Merchant/Processor/User Long 87970 Short 76015 Net: 11955 SwapDealer Long 60796 Short 99269 Net: -38473 ManagedMoney Long 93958 Short 82765 Net: 11193 OtherReportables Long 41432 Short 25286 Net: 16146 SmallTraders Long 36847 Short 37668 Net: -821 - Both gold and silver prices stayed nearly exactly the same between 2013 weeks 51 and 52. - Both gold and silver total position increased, silver +5086 and gold +6503, for silver this is percentually way bigger than gold. - Both gold and silver markets have the same Trader class as main reason for the increase: ManagedMoney The Large Traders class on http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1 is MoneyManager + OtherReportables. Conclusion: This again shows how Large Traders tend to make the smartest moves: they increased their position big time to the long side, right before a price increase. Remember that huge (5%) $1 and very fast price swing $19.4 > $18.9 > $19.4 on 31 december? That was probably when they changed +5086 to the long side. Some others on the silver market (also outside the Comex) sold there a big chunk, and these Large Traders used that opportunity to quickly add longs/remove shorts. End price same as start price, but the Comex Large Traders "replaced" those other sellers in the price / buying order. And since these Comex players near to never ask delivery of the metal (they cancel their future order), unlike those others that usually have longer term commitment/holding, the price downside again increased, continuing the existing trend that was the reason to 'hold my ammo'. Before, $18 was my target. I now changed to $17.
Here I am again! Fresh from the start! At current price good for another 7 kilo. Anyone shot his ammo today? I didn't!
Don't just look at the price. This is how the money for nothing club 'creates' such a 'resistence level': 1) Suppose spot price is $20 2) Alot people decide to sell their silver (doesnt matter whether back to dealer or to another stacker), an amount representing 2 price dollars. 3) Normally this would move the price $2 down, so giving $18 4) But instead of allowing that to happen, the futures market players increase their total net position (so they go more towards the long side, and/or less to the short side), and they 'replace' those 2 price dollars. For ex, it could be bullion dealers that want to keep people willing to pay that $2 higher price. 5) So what happened: while the price seems to have stayed flat/stable/the same, so appearing as a 'resistence level', in reality, alot people sold, and the spot price now reflects Comex positions of 5000 ounces instead of delivered stacks. 6) Since a silver futures position near to never end in actual delivery of the silver, those 2 price dollars are bogus / temporary, and cancelling the positions will let the original sales finally be reflected in the spot price. And that's what I see happening (middle column is the total net amount positions of 5000 ounces) 15/04/2014 23294 $19.45 <- 23294 positions around $19.5 <- LAST WEEK 08/04/2014 28905 $20.02 01/04/2014 28442 $19.80 25/03/2014 31755 $19.96 18/03/2014 35900 $20.84 11/03/2014 37634 $21.32 04/03/2014 39769 $21.14 25/02/2014 38985 $21.81 18/02/2014 32853 $21.62 11/02/2014 22417 $20.135 04/02/2014 14852 $19.525 <- 14852 positions around $19.5 <- REFERENCE 4 28/01/2014 21033 $19.59 21/01/2014 23951 $19.93 14/01/2014 24809 $20.05 07/01/2014 25529 $19.7 ... 06/08/2013 10300 $19.43 <- 10300 positions around $19.5 (august 2013) <- REFERENCE 3 ... 02/07/2013 7769 $19.44 <- 7769 positions around $19.5 (juli 2013) <- REFERENCE 2 25/06/2013 4093 $18.925 <- 4093 positions around lowest price since 2008 <- REFERENCE 1 So in two weeks, the Comex players 'hided' sales of 23294-14852=8442 x 5000 = 42.2 Moz silver (not exact of course) since REFERENCE 4. There are 2 things to also take into account here: - that 14852 is a decade low position, it may be unlikely to be revisited alot (in order to judge I'd need to find date for the 1980-2000 Comex position, updated every week (at least in my time)), but considering we are after a decade bull trend, I doubt it. - it IS possible that they wait long before dumping the positions. For ex, during 2009 and 2010 they sat most of the time around a 50000 position. But during that period, most of the ETF silver stocks were bought, so there was quite some demand that made them unwilling to allow the price to go lower. Since ETF's ceased to buy more since over a year, that demand isn't there anymore so they have no reason anymore to keep the price up, especially if other people use the opportunity to 'get out'. Relative to REFERENCE 4, LAST WEEK was (already calculated above) 42.2 Moz more silver sold. Relative to REFERENCE 3, LAST WEEK was 23294-10300=12994 x 5000 = 65 Moz more silver sold. Relative to REFERENCE 2, LAST WEEK was 23294-7769=15525 x 5000 = 77.6 Moz more silver sold. Relative to REFERENCE 1, LAST WEEK was 23294-4093=19201 x 5000 = 96 Moz more silver sold. The most recent (REFERENCE 4) is the most accurately reflecting current situation, and since it needs a very rude 60 Moz to move the price 1 dollar, it means 0.70 dollar, so 19.50-0.70=$18.80. So that is a very reasonable possibility, which I will certainly wait for. REFERENCE 3 is $1.08 so a spot of $18.42, which has a fair chance. REFERENCE 2 is $1.29 so a spot of $18.21, which has a low chance. REFERENCE 1 is $1.6 so a spot of $17.9, which has a low chance. That's how it was last week tuesday. If others keep on selling more and/or buy less, like they do since a couple years, then the price will drop even lower than the mentioned prices. If the Comex would become net neutral (so a zero net position) now, then the price would drop 23294 x 5000 = 116.47 Moz / 60 Moz = $1.94 so a spot price of $17.56. During april so far, ETF's had a neglectable effect on the price, one bought a couple Moz but another sold a couple Moz so no net effect worth speaking of. So don't judge alone on the spot price. If one that bought silver with the intention to keep it 10 years, sold already after 2 years, and one with the intention to keep it 2 months, bought it, then that means that not over 10 years, but over 2 months the price will drop the corresponding amount. Despite the spot price seeming to be a 'resistence level'. The same happened after the august 2012 -> october 2012 uptrend. A steadily increasing Comex position at a certain price. Back then I also saw the opposite happening at the peak of $35 then, the Comex position dropped while the price remained, meaning others sold, and the Comex players also hiding it at that peak price. I had the idea that those that sold then, would buy back in later, and prevent the price from dropping more. So I thought $27 was a good price to target, and I also bought there. Wrong. They did NOT buy back in, and I 'wasted' my ammo at $27 to see $22 in Q1 2013. Same story repeated, after a next upspike I bought at $22, to then see $19. So I decided to stop assuming that they will buy back in, and wait for the price that my above method suggests. So far I didn't have to regret it. I know one time it will be wrong again, and I'll have missed the boat. But in meanwhile, I'll have enough boat trips succeeded.
Just an uptodate: I just shot my ammo for the second time this year. Should have done it a day sooner, but on the other hand, I'm quite happy with the whole of the purchase, including the silver. Another crossing point between me and silver has passed!
