Well Crimex is sure going to rock tonight.... I think this is it for the day... slow grind up or sideways then SLAM into Crimex open
TG U reckon we will see < 1300aud? 1250 maybe? I am so tempted to fire my bullet at this level. Maybe should go 50/50?
Closed out some short potitions @1358 (was aiming for 1350 but close enough) next target in 1264, then 1165... interesting how silvers getting stuck at the 23 dollar line. Mostly i'm using silver as my barometer for gold
^ A useful set of observations, especially as it preceeded the action last night. I'm particularly interested in his retracement analysis around 3:40 - putting 50% retracement around 1338, and 61.8% at 1195. I could speculate a bounce off the latter and a return to the former - down to below 1200, then back up. I got out of my single, pathetic Silver Put contract position at $3; with four days to run and volatility high I wanted out before the beach started eroding under my feet. I left 25% on the table ($4 at close, but considering that I purchased at 28c, and it has been stuck at 12c for a while, I came away with more than I expected), and it means that I am up in cash terms (all my longs are so far under water it's not funny, but they mostly have time to run). I'd like a few more 1000% positions - ironic that the position was limited because I was low on cash in the account. I certainly failed to hedge my physical. I take a couple of observations to heart: Gold is likely to go lower Stabilisation around 1350 seems not unreasonable. Whether Goldman's price recommendation was motivated by Black Hat activity, or by leaks in the chinese walls, or by completely independent analysis, the timing of the announcement smells to high heaven. I spent an hour this morning looking for a reasonable entry point for a one-month Put - couldn't find it before market close. Pricing was way above value. I think I want a Put entry into a gold price proxy stock with a target of Gold at 1200 as an exit. On the positive side, I'm starting to wonder about looking for an entry around 1200 with a target of 1350.
Feels to be running out of puff... will need a real sharp spike down on high vol to signal the end for me anyway
Is there any reason what happened last night cannot repeat? I was waiting for the opening of the Options exchange (11.30pm GMT+10) and it spiked straight down, erasing all the gains of the day in Asia, London and NY. Doesn't seem to show on Kitco particularly well, but I was highly motivated by seeing my exit put triple in value on the open.
TG, Do you personally think we have much more downside to this, or have we seen the bottom on Monday? This will be used purely for entertainment purposes, not taken as investment advice
Trader Dan puts it better the I could. But yeah... more down side is in order IMHO, but hell if it get near $1250 i'll buy big and near $1000 I'll have no truck to back up as i'll have sold it to buy PMs http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/random-thoughts.html
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/gold-commitment-of-traders-explains.html cracker of a post by traderdan traderdan... bi-epic-winning
Thanks for the post, but as I'm still learning the technicalities and jargons of trading, would you be kind to summarize what his post was about? I think I'm lost and all I see from the graph is a downward channel forming!
He's basically saying there is a massive confluence @ 1300 and above that were OK below that it's 1150ish then under that 900ish **puke** Here is what i'm looking at... mostly for shorting entry points. On a side note might be a H&S forming in daily S&P500 A close above 1450 and i'll be bullish again till then I am short term bearish and loving every moment of it
