Precious metals demand

With such a small market it's wise to take advantage of low demand while you have the chance.
Once the buying explodes you can sit back with the popcorn and watch it unfold with no worries or sell a little to the late bloomers.

 

LOL From such lofty hights, the fall will indeed be hard, harder for some more than others I expect.

 

Hey folks, thought I'd dive into this discussion if I may. Like most of you I like PMs for the fact that they hold their value, but my view of the 'insurance' aspect of them in case of high inflation and economic meltdown was seriously dented by what I read in Curt Dall's excellent book about his father-in-law, FDR. He noted that during the depression, FDR simply stole all Americans' private gold. He ordered them to surrender it to the government, at around $20/oz, where it had been for over 10 years. Once FDR had all the gold, he raised the gold price to about $35/oz. So Americans' hard-won savings advantage was simply stolen from them by government fiat. Or at least a big chunk of it was.

 

So if your loving caring government asked you to hand over any Gold you hold, would you conform or would you explain how you recently traded it all?
Times have changed, trust in these compromised corrupt governments has declined, or at least I'd like to think so if anyone still has any commonsense, which I'm not totally convinced of.

 

Lol I'm not convinced of it either!

Then they will say okay we're taking all your email records and your bank records to make sure you're not lying to us. Oh, here's all your gold. You must be a terrorist!

I would hope not, but the FDR's of this world do like stealing that gold!

 

As soon as the government starts asking for civilian gold expect the ‘black market’ price to moon from whatever moon it would already have reached..

Due to online networks and communication platforms that didn’t exist back then, it would bankrupt the government very quickly to resource efforts to recover my lost gold, even if they had some email and bank history. I would ask them to excavate the entire WA and VIC states, because I can’t remember where it was buried anyway. Don’t get me started the silver boating accident.
If they want to deem us terrorists then they’ve lost a productive working class tax payer and (possibly) one that can hold a gun for them in a war when needed. If it gets to that point a few ounces of gold is the least of anyone’s worries.

 

A lot of sailors had boating accidents that day.

 

Back then everyone had gold since it was money.
Nowadays mostly no one has it.
Even in 1933 with higher government trust only an estimated 25% actually turned it in.
Most kept their gold.

They could try a gold confiscation again but they still hold the gold from the last time. It's never been returned to the people so there's really not much to confiscate.

On the other hand a black market would really boost prices and that's great.

 

I hope they don't change a thing. Just keep on current course it's perfect.

 

It will be coming back home eventually.
It might already be starting with the world dumping it.

 

Like Lehman Bros., Bear Sterns, MF Global, and Enron? I think the veneer of soundness is much thinner than most people think. If it weren't, the banking system in the USA wouldn't be crying so hard about the pending Basel III capital requirements/standards.

 

I got a notification the other day from Nationwide coins.
I just ordered a $1900 deal from them a few weeks ago and now it's $2150 for the same coins.
Their deals are normally limited to one-per-customer but with the new price it should be a new deal. In theory I should be eligible for this one too.
I'm going to call them as soon as I get back to work fk it. It was for a one oz gold Eagle and a signed and graded MS70 silver Eagle for free.
It still sounds like a killer buy even for another $250.

 

I'm not sure that it is all over. NYCB could theoretically go to zero.


FT (today)

"US regional banks are not out of the woods yet. Having ridden out a deposit flight that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic last year, the challenge for many will be finding a way to increase profits again in 2024.

Chief among the obstacles are funding costs and exposure to the troubled commercial real estate sector. The 44 per cent collapse in New York Community Bancorp’s share price this week is a reminder of how tough navigating these two roadblocks will be.

The New York-based lender this week set off a fresh wave of selling in regional banking stocks after it swung to a surprise fourth-quarter loss, slashed its dividend and set aside hundreds of millions of dollars in provisions for potential bad loans in its CRE portfolio. At first glance, NYCB’s woes appear unique to its balance sheet. Executives said the acquisition of Signature Bank, one of the regional banks that collapsed last year, pushed NYCB’s assets above a $100bn regulatory threshold. That requires it to hold more capital and liquidity.

NYCB’s decision to cut its quarterly dividend by 70 per cent helps meet these regulatory requirements. But that is only part of the story. High funding costs is the other. NYCB paid an average rate of 3.62 per cent on its interest-bearing deposits in the fourth quarter, up from 1.93 per cent a year ago. That compares with the 2.78 per cent its far larger peer JPMorgan paid that period. At the same time, NYCB’s loan growth has stalled, with the average loan balance down quarter on quarter. That is squeezing profitability. Its net interest margin fell 45 basis points to 2.82 per cent quarter on quarter.

That is expected to fall further in 2024. Net interest income could fall by as much as $300mn this year. Then there is the commercial real estate dilemma. Most banks want to reduce their exposure to this $5.8tn market. A record amount of loans are maturing and need refinancing this year and next. Yet they need interest from the high-yield loans to finance the generous deposit rates required to attract savers. Among regional banks, Bank OZK and Valley National Bancorp stand out, with high exposure to CRE loans but low CRE reserve ratios, according to Morgan Stanley research.

At OZK, CRE loans make up some 63 per cent of the bank’s earning assets. Repercussions from last year’s regional bank crisis continue to roil the sector. More CRE write-downs will mean smaller regional banks have more firefighting to do."