I wont post any segments of the article as it would be doing it injustice. Another 'top caller' who I have never heard of although all of a sudden seems to knwo everything about the silver market. He does make some good points though. Interested in others opinion. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/physical-silver-investors-are-being-hoodwinked-futures-market
The poster below summed it up pretty well imo ( as a response to the silver is in a bubble article ) by SRSrocco on Tue, 04/26/2011 - 06:11 #1207018 THERE'S A GREAT DEAL OF BRAIN DAMAGE OUT THERE Well, it maybe true that silver has taken a pretty steep leg up, to say silver is in a bubble is like saying the dollar is a safe haven (even though many countries you visit now won't take them in restuarants or retail stores). There is a great deal of brain damage today affecting analysts and their subscribers. How someone can call silver a bubble when the greatest fiat experiment in history, the US DOLLAR, is well past its expiration date. Let's point out some REAL BUBBLES...shall we? * Grandmas talking tech stocks after bingo 1999 = Bubble * Two McDonalds managers buying a $750,000 house in California in 2006 with no money down = Bubble * 46.6 Square feet of Retail per Captia in USA 2011 = Bubble * US Treasury Market = Bubble (ask Bill Gross) SILVER THE NON BUBBLE Gold hit $1500, and silver just barely hit $50. Gold is almost double its price in 1980, silver is FLAT. In 2011, looks like there will be 40 million silver eagles sold in the USA. If only half of Americans were able to buy, that would be about 160 million people. If only Americans bought these 40 million, each would get a quarter ounce. Does that seem like a FRICKEN BUBBLE?? How many people have 401k's, Pension Plans, IRAs, CDs or money market funds? Probably at least 50-60 million. But that's not a bubble. Each American owning a quarter ounce of silver in 2011 is a BUBBLE. Do you see the Brain Damage here. Trying to compare Condos to Silver is complete nonsense. Fuel costs are rising because of a falling EROI - energy returned on invested. The lower the EROI, the more of a liabilty suburban living becomes. Silver is a store of value, a Condo is a true depreciating liability....especially when there is plenty of SUPPLY...but very little demand. Silver is the opposite. Folks....there is a lot of BRAIN DAMAGE out there....and it ain't good for you
I don't really have any interest either way but i am aware of a large biase around here Don't forget that people are now pouring into SLV, i am seeing it everywhere, magazines, news articles, people talk at work ect., typical of a close top. Now history has also shown that when speculation reaches the feverish level, there will be a final spike high, lasting a short amount of time where price can double. When an asset class doubles and triples in a year or two, it starts to get mania like. I personally, see too much risk to continue investing, and enjoy listening to both sides of the arguement as a commodity begins to enter the 'tulip mania' stages.
Bob Moriarty posted a silver article (rant) yesterday. He had called the top in silver at $38 and was very upset that it went to $46. I no longer see any need to argue with the deflationist or the bubble people. Backwardation alone nullifies almost any argument against current silver prices. And they cannot understand the effect of massive increases in the money supply, they are going to learn a very hard lesson. The people I feel sorry for are those who are invested in CD, fixed annuities, bonds, etc. They are the ones holding the bag.
easy i have one simple answer. Look at the 20 year holding of physical silver, then look at the increase in industry use of silver over the last 3 years (notice the big drop in 2009 which corresponded with the GFC). Now here is the tatsloto ticket, look at the changing composition of industry use of silver. Now tell me where is supply going to come from in the 'tough years', the ability to draw down from existing holdings is becoming more limited, as there is less physical 'passive' supply on the market compared to before. plenty of short term issues i agree, but this is where the wheat will be seperated from the chaff. Its easy to be bullish when a price spike occurs, the key to long term wealth preservation will depend on the ability to seperate the short term issues from the long term structural issues.
Come on. The very fact that it is spending time this week consolidating in the mid-$40's and not marching continuously to $100 is proof there is no bubble or mania. I hope (reckon) it spends the rest of the week here and builds the floor for investor confidence to push beyond $50. But if it drops to US$40 or below, then that will be a great buying opportunity, although unlikely imo. Inflation in India and China is pretty serious and precious metals are a great hedge against that. There is, of course 1/3 of the entire planetary population represented by these two largest precious metal markets. Inflation is just starting to kick in, these peoples inherently don't trust paper currencies and are keen precious metal buyers. Is it any wonder we had a surge in the price action when western banksters went on their easter break. All we saw over the weekend was what would happen without the active suppression in support of the USD.
There is no clear line of demarcation between having a bubble or not. However, there are indicators. For example, the Silver COT reports show that small speculator long positions are more then double short positions. This indicates that hysteria is brewing and hence some people may call this an indicator of a bubble. But even if we don't call it a bubble. History tends to show that the bigger the volume in short term speculators and the quicker the volume increases, the bigger the drop when the drop comes. Physical Holders should thank sellers of silver that there "was" a pull back from $50. If it did reach $100 without much resistance, we would probably see sub $17 silver again. Resistance is a good thing, because it kicks out short term speculators and stops hysteria. It therefore slows the rise in value, and usually means higher highs in the long term (that's assuming the fundamentals stay the same of course)..
Once the Chinese government suggested citizens save in gold and silver then the cat was out of the bag. They don't listen to commentary or care about SLV etc. They just want to put their taels into the family vault whilst they can and with inflation off on a run to 20 percent, they'll swap paper for metal until there's no more to be traded for.
Holding in a $40-$50 trading range for a few months would be a healthy sign. What's a real bubble? How about putting trillions of dollars into something that is technically bankrupt? I speak of US Govt Bonds.
I read that article this morning. I hope people believe it at this point as it buys (without cost to me) more time to prepare. Noobs in Noobs out. Losers along the way, Winners to, Can't explain it to them.
He does make a good point abut QE2 ending soon, which is a concern for me. Can someone explain to me why silver wouldn't drop if the fed stopped QE?
There was an interesting article linked off kitco that looked at the 100 day % gain for silver back to the the late sixties which helps counterbalance some of the talk at the moment. Interesting looking chart. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kirtley_Sam/apr262011.html
My own knowledge in this area is so limited I would hesitate to comment. But I would ask the question: "The folks who are hearing talk about silver at work and people pouring into SLV etc.... what background do these people have, who do they surround themselves with, are there knowledgeable people around them to facilitate their interest in silver. Did one or two folks start them off on the silver tangent or did they all come to the realisation themself by gathering information via sources of general knowledge or via extensive research into other sources? Do they make up the average mum and dad, worker etc... ie: if I asked a butcher, baker, nurse, coles employee, carpenter, mechanic, engineer, school teacher, taxi driver, haridresser, medical scientist, speech pathologist etc... about silver what would they say? Are the magazines concerned various popular men's and women's mags etc.... that someone with no financial iterests might be reading so that they accidently found out about buying silver?" Isn't it these people that are representative of the general public? I don't know what the exact definition of genreal public is........just asking.
I note that the Chinese general public are somewhat different from other countries - given the gov't has already informed them of the usefulness of silver and gold!
Is that really the case though? I have friends over in China/HK and the general sentiment right now seems to be "Gold is expensive!" and "Who the hell buys silver? LOL". The Chinese gov bought like 230 tons of silver in Feburary I think, but I think the general public is still into Gold not silver.
I just read that article - I will now be cleaning my mental BS filter for at least a week it's so clogged. That can only be described as propaganda, I could actually see the puppet strings overlapping the text in places.
