So what if this isn't silvers time. What if this is a bubble, a precursor of what may be possible if the fiat confidence game comes to an end. Who would be hurt if silver dropped back to $25? Who would be excited and just buy more? I am new to this so I would be excited because my $ would buy more silver. What would you tell your partner, your family? Has anybody been bragging to anybody will listen about silvers recent gains? Anybody going to have to hide from friends and family for a while if it plummets to get away from the knowing looks and the i told you so's?
Well I bought the bulk of my silver at $26 so I will see any profit wiped out immediately. I wasn't particularly keen at buying it at that price either so I doubt I would rush out to buy more. I seriously expected it to be a 10 year minimum hold, until I retired, just a way of hedging against inflation. I did not expect it to act as an investment. I still do not beleive it and if I was the sort of person to pinch myself then I would be doing that now. I think it would throw some people who were hoping to cash out in the near future. It would make my home life hell as I have been charting the highs and keeping quiet on the dips, I couldn't hide such a drop though and the "told you so" would get a bit annoying! I would go out and buy some numismatic items which I can't afford at the moment due to the inflated silver prices.
The only people hurt by silver dropping back to $25 would be the people who played with short selling or held a position which failed or require liquidity in the short term. If you are in it for the long haul you shouldn't have a problem. If it drops to 25 I would be stocking up a lot lot lot lot lot! 90% of my disposable income would be going to silver I've told my family that I feel like investing in silver, they said OK and didn't really question me since they know I will study/research my own investments before committing. As for "I told you so" people, I don't really care what they think lol. I know the fundamentals, the potential of silver etc and could care less if there was a slight dip.
Best way to approach silver is to ride out the bumps and treat it as a long term investment. If it does skyrocket, well that's just a bonus.
This right here is the thing stopping me from rushing out and buying up at $38/oz. The short term I told you so potential is so high at the moment in both directions.
I know we make this sort of statement all the time on here but I have to say it is starting to concern me more and more. One of the big issues I have with real estate spruikers (real ones - not just us guys on here ) is they say it doesn't matter if you buy at ridiculous prices - you just hold for the long term and you'll be right. If you thought this with silver in 1980 you would still be under water 31 years later and hugely underwater if you take inflation into account. Investment is not buy, hold and pray - this is gambling no matter if the timeframe is minutes, day, weeks, months, years or decades. Silver has had a great run and it may continue - but it may not. If you look at history silver can spend decades in the one tight trading range. I am not saying silver is about to plummet - but consider if it doesn't break much more that $40 and stays there for the next 20 years. Will you still be happy? You certainly wont have kept pace with inflation never mind a basic cash management account. Before people say that this isn't possible - look at the silver chart (including CPI) from the mid 80s (after the hunt episode) through to 2008. It hardly moved out of a pretty tight range for most of the 20 odd years. Please note - I am not saying silver will "crash" or "skyrocket". I am just saying (IMHO) that holding forever or buying on a dip may not be the investment you hope for - make sure the purchase makes sense for you. malachii
The difference between this and real estate (imo) is that RE is funded by mostly mortgages so if the price of the asset (house) drops you're still paying a LOT for the mortgage whereas there is no upkeep required for PMs like silver/gold. If the price of the silver stagnates or drops and I am not in need of capital or liquidity then I'm still going to be just as bad or well off as before. The reason being of course, I only put my disposable income towards silver, not my entire income/savings. I still have some fiat stashed away in that 6-7% savings account so it's not like I am 100% invested into PMs.
If silver drops to AUD $25/oz I'm still doing very well against AUD fiat. (silver has dropped from USD$21 to USD$9 whilst I've held substantial physical silver, big deal!) This is not about "I told you so"...."silver was a great investment" haha. The potentials of what could happen in the market place with fiat currencies is well beyond the comprehension of most people at the moment and that is understandable , IMHO. On saying this, I would advise that one waits until their silver has at least doubled against fiat before they talk about it with others whom are not akin to thought beyond what is projected by the mainstream. This is not so you can say "I told you so". It is because "doubling your money" (so to speak) is something that gets peoples attention. Unstable fiat currencies could potentially really adversely affect almost pretty much everybody's lives, so forget "I told you so", it is not appropriate. At the end of the day, it is about maintaining my hard earned "dollars" in something more concrete that fiat currency, IMHO. Yes, there are other fundamentals such as physical Ag supply to consider. How does silver compare to the costs of food, clothing and shelter. What if a regular loaf of bread is AUD$22.00 each. So on and so on.....
The ones who sold short would actually make money. Those who bought ( or went long ) would lose money and those who have to make interest repayments on their purchases would also lose out. But the sellers would make money
I'm actually expecting it to tank when GFC2 happens. If I miss the peak and do not sell off my silver before then, I would have lost relative to the prices I've been paying during the last 8 months or so. Either way, when it hits rock bottom I'll be in the market for more. Hopefully I'll have saved up enough for a huge spending spree by then (especially if the sell off at peak went well). Supposing I miss the peak, I'll hold onto it for a future cycle. However that's silver... I'm holding my gold to the end. It's inter-generational as far as I'm concerned.
@bgtrader - Just have a look at this article: http://www.silver-info.com/why-silver-will-go-up-for-years-to-come.htm "Why Silver Will Go UP for Years to Come!" It's just the beginning of a big SILVER story - Silver will be the investment of the decade ...
I think its gonna go ballistic, when the POS drops a bit I usually curse because I cannot take advantage of the dips (coz I just buy some when I have the cash and I spot a reasonable deal). When it dips I am always broke goddamit! Excuse the profanity, God, if you are listening. I think it is a no-brainer, and a lot of people think I have no brains. But I am pretty sure a day will come when they are all wondering how I knew to buy it way back when it was only double figures per oz and showing me their $1500 2018 Kook or whatever and they will then think I have no brains for buying whatever it is next. Quartz crystals or whatever. Tulip farms.
holy crap if Quartz becomes the new thing my hippy friends will RAKE it in They don't call it hippy bling for nothing
