All Ords Gold Index (XGD) chart looking more promising after a pretty lacklustre 2017. * About 50% of Index weighting is NCM, with Top10 over 90% of Index. - NCM in a wedge and will need to decide whether to break Resistance or Support sometime over next few weeks. - EVN currently at a Resistance crunch point. - NST had a pretty good year, creating new all time highs recently. - SBM been moving very nicely since breaking Resistance in mid-November. - Interest in some of the junior gold stocks heating up a bit in recent months. NST taking 80million shares in EAR. DRG shareprice moving quite strongly. KIN securing funding package with Sprott to advance its W.A. project.
Thanks Harry. XGD is now just over 5000. USD gold has been up for about 14 days in a row now. I think shortly there will be a pullback to re-test US$1300, which means a test of 4900 on XGD (pink down arrow on chart above). Who knows, gold does have momentum right now and many of the ASX gold stocks are looking the best they have in 12 months.
US gold still holding above 1300 for the time being. XGD fell below 4900 Support yesterday (pink arrow phase in 1st chart). Many of the larger gold companies in a pullback mode. I suspect this will be a good buying opp in coming days. Gold/convential gold companies should continue doing well until at least mid-Februray. (I could be wrong of course).
Thurs/Fri may have been it for this period of ASX gold stock pullbacks. Gold pushing higher to US1336 last night. XGD Index should be back above 4900 on Monday.
XGD back above 4900. Looks like that pullback was brief. 5054 would make a new XGD higher high in this bull trend. I'm still bullish gold stocks until at least mid-Feb.
update to first XGD weekly chart: XGD moving 2.8% on Thurs as gold pushed above US$1360. Daily chart making higher lows and higher highs.
XGD Index update. Index is heavily weighted to NCM & EVN & top 10 make up over 90% of weighting. XGD didn't quite get to 5550 (3 green arrows in previous charts), but the sector has performed well over the last 6-8 months.
XGD seasonality chart (below) is a real eye-opener and supports something I've known for a while. ASX Gold stocks are usually good buys in November or December (eg. many bottomed by mid-Dec last year), however March through to end July are usually terrible. One explanation, by the time Chinese NY comes around (early-mid Feb), its time to get out of gold stocks for several months (this year was an exception for the leading gold stocks).
XGD chart update below: On my last chart (July 2018), XGD was on three key Support lines. Another test of 4565 was looking likely and this is what played out. XGD now in a strong Stage 2 bull run and back at a 5.5 year high (hitting above 6000 level last week). Reminder that mid-Feb (from Chinese NY) to August is usually a bad period for XGD stocks.
* XGD hitting 6133 today. * Gold stocks making 52 wk highs today: NCM, AGG, AQG, CHN, DRM, RED, RRL, SBM SLR. Many other gold stocks made 52 wk highs within last 2 weeks. * The big commodity stocks like BHP, RIO, FMG making 52 wk highs as well today. AUD gold price near all-time highs, currently A$1879. Currently breaking above a 7.5 year Resistance line.
This AUD gold chart from early June (forgot to post): AUD gold went on to reach new all time high of A$2067/oz on 25 June 2019. My chart a couple of posts up (Feb 2019) alluded that there was a chance AUD gold price could break a 9-year long Resistance line. This is what played out, with AUD gold up over 12% so far this year. This is despite the usual seasonality where XGD gold stocks typically do bad between Chinese NY (mid-Feb) to end of June each year: XGD Index chart update:
The XGD is looking very overbought right here (thinking about lightning up on some gold miners for the first time in 5 years). Here is a chart comparing decline and recovery of the XGD (AU gold miner index) vs HUI (US gold miner index).
I've been thinking the same, SAR is now my largest holding by a noticeable amount, but the stars seemed to have aligned at the moment. Silver and the miners strength lately confirms for me that the cyclical bear is over. I will probably start selling some tiny amounts till I see which way things go and rebalance a bit. It feels to me we are more likely to see another pop than any significant retracement. Plus the shorts have been having a dig a SAR recently so I don't think it will get priced unreasonably. Tough call for me to sell much.
* US gold US$1508/oz * AUD gold another new high last week A$2241/oz, +21.3% so far in 2019. XGD chart update: ASX gold stocks (XGD) reached an all time new high last week of 8730. Early signs to have gold stocks on watchlist was back in Dec 2018 - Feb 2019. A$ Gold broke 8.5 yr high in January 2019. Many mid-Large cap ASX gold stocks had multi-year Stage 1 (consolidation) charts, which broke into Stage 2 bull runs over last 6 months (many in May - early June). AQG is one good example.
ASX Gold stocks end of 2019 update: AUD Gold price: As pointed out previously, Dec to mid-Feb each year usually provides a positive influence to ASX gold stocks. seasonality: Over the last 6 years, the XGD has provided on average a +27% return over the Dec-Feb periods. XGD Monthly chart: