It's always easier to think in "natural" currency than convert. I bet everyone in our country wouldn't mind having euro salaries and prices as where when we have our own currency.... 1500 was then great salary, is now almost just "good".
Silver still rising, AU$23.70 Aussie dipped, now slowly rising to 91.5c, Gold AU$1456, volatile but slowly rising. Three +'s
Yea, and when those speculators again dump, it will be again the Comex / JP Morgan / manipulation lol. How many that so far didnt sell, will sell in this uptrend? Not me, for sure, but considering that some just sold their stack already at $19, what higher price will it take for others? The next time those speculators then dump, it would end in an again lower silver price. Also, those record high stock market levels, that has to end in a collapse, will those marketwide 'players' leave their silver stock alone when deciding to dump everything? I'm also happy to see a price uptrend, as my average is $30, but I know one thing for sure: this isn't due to people stacking or even ETF shares, but to Comex futures players and likely some institutionals that load up some amount bars. They won't shake me off, even not at $30 and $40, but I won't buy any ounce higher than according to spot $19. And if the next downtrend shows a higher Comex position at a lower price, then I'll let even $19 pass, and will wait for lower. I learnt some lessons, see.
I'm selling at $35, but your logic makes sense... at $35, I'm 2500 oz, with a $10 increase from DCA Then, I'm "in" at $20. I've learned some lessons as well, one of them not being "stack until I die," rather, stack until I can make a considerable profit. I'm "long" only if that means selling at what I paid, to include inflation dollars. I'm "short" when I can make profit (including inflation).
Silver up 50c to AU$23.96 at present, will we see $24 today.? Once the $24 barrier is broken, how long till $25? Any predictions? Gold up too, gaining $16. I don't think either metal has run out of puff.
As a couple (haha) times said before, I don't do the same as the central planning thieves and the parasiting gangs behind them. Not doing this doesn't mean stacking till death. That's just some made-up alike not playing the thieves game would imply that. It doesn't. I stack silver just like I stacked euro's: until I want to swap them for what I really wanted. Instead of trying to dump the consequences of my bad purchasing decision to others, I try to make better purchasing decisions, as an attempt to average down towards a 'better than a bank account' result. And do you think you'll see $35 without general price increasings that lag silvers already at $20? General prices didn't double relative to 2008. If I would assume that the so far spent new dollars will be all spent, and 'normal spending' level is reached again, then we can expect +40% inflation. If I add that to 2008's $9 silver bottom, I get $13, to the 2008 average of $15, I get $21, to the 2008 peak of $20, I get $28. Together giving $13 - $21 - $28, and for ex a bread being 2008's price +40% Since that bread isn't the case yet, or in general, without other prices rising comparable to silver, any silver price uptrend means profit and the REAL question for the money for nothing clubbers out there is at which price to get out. Do you think they will wait again till $35? I don't. Because this mid april price drop $26 > $19 will again teached more of them the lesson to not wait till there. With current general inflation, the most likely scenario is a further narrowing silver price fluctuation, and maybe this time the next peak will be only $25. In the end, relative to $20 that's already 25% profit. The main error I made was taking QE for real. It wasn't. Most of the new dollars just went to balances doing nothing and not spending = no price inflation. It's possible that we get price inflation higher than new dollar spending suggests, because higher taxes or other forms of theft, have the same effect. So what I say here, and my strategy, is not like hardcoded, if I see reasons to revise a next target price, I will. But I won't search those reasons on Zerohedge and its companion copypasters heh.
So, what's making silver climb? I'm investigating the bullish forces behind this rally. Why is silver climbing? Pretty abrupt climb, I guess... Has it bottomed?
The next commitment of traders reports by the commodity futures trading commission will tell us. If we see the net total longs+shorts increase, then it means that the silver price rise wasn't due to US Mint and physically backed ETF's shareholders. The bullish forces are then just short-temporary pushers, as we all know that most of the long position sides never ends in physical delivery - allocated silver. Basically, they throw a rock in front of us stackers, and they want us to climb that rock, pay the elevated price on that rock, to then kick the rock from underneath our feet. That's the output of my 'investigation' haha.
Could work. But if/when a big wave like 1980 comes, that strategy might make 20k profit while missing out on 200k.
How are silver ETF's doing, Pirocco? Are they up? I think the paper moves the market more than physical buyers.
Nothing special to see at the physically backed silver ETF's, although since some months I only watch the biggest, Ishares Silver Trust. The others I ceased monitoring, mostly due to their sites becoming crappy to get to the data. The highest stock of this Ishares was on 25 april 2011 with 366 Moz silver. In 2012 it averaged around a 315 Moz and now it's 336 Moz and has been 344 Moz end march 2013. That's 1/3 of a worlds annual supply, that in the future surely will be sold. Aside of the Comex futures positions shorter term cyclic game, this ETF story is also something to take into account, regardless whether or not the IF and the WHEN of the 2008 crisis comes to an end. 33% of a worlds annual supply can suppress/undo a 3% price uptrend (demand increase) / year for an entire decade. And the total amount investment silver as coins and bars of all weights, is abit over 1000 Moz, so the sales of these can even suppress/undo a 10% price every year uptrend for an entire decade. The best that could happen for the silver market would be that it becomes more competitive versus the fiatcurrency market, but those money for nothing clubbers - short term temporary buyers that drive the price up and down in large fluctuations, ruin the storage of value aspect of silver, make the job harder for silver savers, and thus weaken silver in this competition. Hence I refuse to participate in it, and I hope more and more others will do too. It would erase a substantial part of the fluctuation, and what happens with a large bunch wolves that hunt a few sheep: they end up eating eachother into the void. So far (even in 2008), the physically backed silver ETF shareholders showed a remarkable 'hold' attitude, and even added some (but by far not as much as 2008-2010). Unlike their gold counterparts, that dumped like they were pro central planning institutions - and maybe this is the key difference between the silver and gold markets. It's also the reason why I avoided any gold alike the pest. I hope more and more do that. I would love to have some of that heavy metal, but I don't like that bunch central planning thieves that suppresses uptrends outside crises and still has 30000 tonnes that can suppress the gold price trend for like another half century, as a followup of what they did in the last half century. There, a wide answer on a specific question haha
Push it to the limit! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8g__x6ExM8[/youtube] Thanks for great explanations Pirocco. As always.
Over the period I stacked silver (feb 2011 till present), I noticed that the larger price movements with a Comex position correlation usually happen once every 3-4 months. feb2011>may2011 may2011>october2011 september2011>december2011 january2012>march2012 april2012>september2012 october2012>feb2013 april2013>juli2013 This evening we'll know the Comittment of traders report for 13/08 when price was $21.31 so the position will say whether or not Comex futures position taking was the main cause for this price uptrend. So the end (read: The Profitgrab) of this august2013>? uptrend, and my next euro>silver "currency swap" would then be november2013. I'll see which price I'm gonna target, if I see a substantial higher Comex position at a lower price, then it's a better idea to wait for lower than $19. The rate at which the net position increases with the price, can also serve as an indicator for the period, since the 5 years position trend shows that peaks sit around 60K so if we see 30K then that suggests halfway or 1,5-2 months, so there is some crosschecking possible between my wild theories eh
