Fair point, I would go back to fiat if I can wipe off my mortgage by selling some silver. At that point, the banks should still be accepting fiat. Otherwise we would already be in the SHTF scenario. Slam
Thanks for that Hobo - i do agree with your view on rating the metals relative to other asset classes, eg property. i dont agree with the inflation adjusted "highs" because the official inflation rate is a crock 'o sh!t - scuze my French! I'd be interested to have a look at these charts/grpahs you mention... had a quick look but didnt see it - will have a more thorough troll through your site later today I guess the one area where i dont agree with you - and others here - is this insinuation that one will have to be very quick to cash in on the "high" which gold and silver will make. I dont think there will be any need to rush at all as gold/silver will maintain a very strong position (peak) if you like for a fair amount of time.... if anybody is expecting the kind of dive or crash which occured after the Hunt Bros' inspired peak of 1980 then i think they will be sorely disappointed! The situation that is unfolding and will eventuate has nothing in common with that previous high of silver. So i dont think there will be any need for a mad rush to the exits in order to "lock in" any silver/gold gains relative to other assets classes. these cycles typically dont turn in a matter of days but more like years...
Where did you hear this......Youtube? Thats another thing that I find interesting. My plan is to sell some silver early enough so as to get my original investment back. Limit my risk whilst still having plenty of dry powder to play this bull market to the top. I can see the opportunity to get in and get out with a nice profit. Despite my risk mitigation strategy, I would no doubt be seen as a speculator or gambler by many here. Yet the eternal silver bulls who beleive that silver is the answer to all their prayers are banking on a similar scenario to the one that you've put forward. You're talking about a 30% property fall coinciding with $500 silver. Now that's what I call a gamble. C
I'm reminded of that Rambo line... What you call hell he calls home... What you call a gamble, he calls a sure thing
Put it this way, a week or two ago we discussed Dublin house prices with examples of prices that were a TENTH of their peak asking prices. When the banks take away the punch bowl, the truth is that there is no money out there to bid prices up! I see house prices at the top end, things like $5 million dollar Eastern suburb homes becoming $500k say and $500k homes becoming $50k in the case of a collapse. Cents on the dollar type stuff will happen here too. Just be cashed up and ready.
I've got no doubt that silver will go up and property will come down. It's the extreme veiws that I'm wary of. $500k houses at $50k and silver at $1000 sort of stuff. A lot of people will be too busy dreaming about this scenario and completely miss the peak in my opinion. C
have to agree contrarian i have realistic expectations if it does better il be happy if it doesnt i wont be dissapointed. Some wise words from my father "if you dont expect to much you can never be let down "
Note that I said in the case of a collapse. How many people do you know with a spare $50k sitting around? How many live pay to pay? I know more of the latter than the former. You won't miss it if a collapse happens. It will be as obvious as dogs balls. No missing that there. In fact it would be the easiest pickings for those cashed up.
The previous crash's or bursting of bubbles all had 1 thing in common, safe havens, US currency and US bonds. the other and smaller market share safe haven is PM's. This time around its a race to the bottom for bonds and the US currency. not too many safe havens left, the PM bubble will only burst once new sfe havens are created. The the real risk to PM's right now is the IMF and the SDR's they carry. but really all this can do is push out the bull market longer, maybe give the PM's a proper correction but no bubble bursting.
With all due respect, but are you aware of the fact that silver is now more scarce than gold? of all the industrial demand for silver? of the fact that the above ground supplies of silver are nearly depleted? it doesnt seem so For somebody who is supposedly contrarian you appear to be pretty mainstream to me.
Don't get me wrong, I know how good an opportunity silver is and if it does get to $500 then I'll be stoked. I'll still have some to sell. What I'm not prepared to do is punt my whole stack on that hope. All I'm saying is that silver can and will end up in a bubble at some stage and as with any bull market it is always wise to keep an eye on the exits and not get caught up in the hype. It doesn't pay to have blind faith in ANYTHING. As for contrarian, I sold an investment property 18 months ago and put a lot of the money into silver. That's hardly mainstream thinking. C
Industrial use will fall if the economy degrades. Some people will question that silver is scarcer than gold. Theres a lot of antique silver out there. Even if the facts you quoted were sure,silver is volatile in price and in a crash would fall badly. (Everyone likes to feel comfortable.)
Well said Contrarian. A lot of people here need to get their head out of their ass and realise Silver is just a "thing" like everything else in the world. It's not money and it's not some magical element that's going to solve the worlds problems. Was Silver money in 1980 when it crashed? Was Silver money when the price remained stagnant throughout the 90s? No. It has a price and is only worth whatever people believe its worth. It will end up in a bubble someday and it's plain naive to think it will just keep going up and up and up forever. Sell when you're happy with the profit you make, not by waiting for some insane figure like $500 which comes from bias gurus selling Silver or Silver related products. Sure $500 may happen but I'll be selling most if not all my stack long before that ever happens.
