If it's an opportunistic spike, it might not hold. But if it's the beginning of a new bear market... not sure. I'm still trying to understand why it has jumped up. Some serious forces must be involved.
Saying money is not save in European banks is somehow "overstatement". Not all EU countries are in deep mess. In fact some of them are doing really well (Germany, Austria, Netherlands, etc.). When you are talking about Europe you can't talk or think as about one country. Is more similar to US states. Some US states are doing better than other. Here is interesting article about "decline of Europe". Not that I'm "pro" European or anything, but is always interesting to know different views, to learn something new, before be repeating talking bird. EU decline Not that EU is not in troubles. Probably September will bring many answers to questions and open new ones. There will be elections in Germany in September. After that election it will be much clearer how EU crisis will be dealt with. Regarding the US ($) inflation. Since first QE was introduced, I was reading articles about huge inflation, etc. That was few years ago. We are currently at QE4 and there is no sign of inflation. Not that is not possible. And when are we talking about inflation - many countries would like to have higher - to avoid Japan scenario. In times of hyperinflation nazis came to power and few decades later our former country (Yugoslavia) fall apart. Even if you sleep on kilos of PMs that won't be easy times. Huge unemployment (among youth) and hyperinflation together would probably open door to hell. And when economies are in crisis, (bigger) countries usually start seeking "external" enemy (wars) or internal (some minority).
- His own chart shows that the ETF stock dropped by 10% of a mine supply (or 6% of total supply 2500 mining + 1500 recycling), which is abit over a month instead of his 6 months. - He claims that individual investors caused the price drop, suggesting many small fish. Also wrong, see: http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-43685-soros-paulson-abandon-gold.html Not many small fish but a handful deep pockets / institutionals. - He claims that central banks "over the past 13 years moved from 500 tonnes sales per year to 500 tonnes purchases per year. A swing of nearly 4 months of mine supply. This has helped to drive demand for gold over the last 13 years" These are the central bank figures (- = sale, + = purchase) 1997 -326 tonnes 1998 -363 tonnes 1999 -477 tonnes 2000 -479 tonnes 2001 -520 tonnes 2002 -547 tonnes 2003 -620 tonnes 2004 -479 tonnes 2005 -663 tonnes 2006 -370 tonnes 2007 -484 tonnes 2008 -236 tonnes 2009 -30 tonnes 2010 -77 tonnes 2011 didn't find it for this year, and original source GFMS Thompson Reuters doesnt give it for free. 2012 +534.6 tonnes 2013 +400 tonnes (a recent forecast) Well, central banks only drove the demand for gold only in the peak years of the price, not over those 13 years. If you look at the figures then there is only one conclusion to draw: they sell when the price is low, and buy when the price is high. And it's easy to understand why: ahead of the crisis, they want to inflict those that sell gold less dollars, and during the crisis they want to inflict those that buy gold less gold. So central banks actually didn't drive the demand over these 15 years, instead they hammered the driver lol.
I have a date folks, September 21st to 23rd for the smackdown. Source: Larry Edelson. Confers using his cycles methodology. Martin Armstrong also suggests this time period(or maybe October) although offers no dates.(Non paying customer).
He is the only analyst to even fathom the problems the euro would cause long before they occurred. His understanding of capital movements is unparalleled, he is one of very few analysts who can look beyond the manipulation mantra and understand the true cycles in markets. He is one of very few to understand, not predict, the inevitable rise before the fall of the mighty u.s. dollar. As for timing, he never predicts bottoms or tops to be precise, nor exact dates. He understands the cycle and let's the cycle play out how it will and provides guideposts on the way. He has saved me a lot of money in the past and has proven beyond any doubt that he is the penultimate economist in the world today.
Link please. Doers this Armstrong fella have a website? I'm always looking for people who shoot straight (just give objective analysis) and don't hype a commodity or market. .
His web page is Armstrong Economics and then go from there. It will take you a long, long, time to go through all his previous papers which can be found on this and other web sites. Very impressive is his report from 1998 I think that time lines the peak in oil, the tech boom, the yen and the Euro .
www.armstrongeconomics.com It goes like this. Subject X might do A if scenario 1 happens, B if scenario 2 happens, C if scenario 3 happens, D if scenario 4 happens, E if scenario 5 etc..... you will either love him, of think he his like every other crackpot.
I suppose it is human behaviour when we all want someone to tell us that event X will occur at time A.....but life is never like that and no-one has the ability to predict in such a way. It is a bit like going to a lawyer for legal advice, you walk out none the wiser with only rough guide lines with which to base your final decision. In the end you are the one to make the choice. As too with Armstrong, the sign posts are there but we are to make our own decision. As for this current gold bull market, he made clear that if gold was to have maximum upside in the next 5 to 7 years then a fall back to the 930 to 1030 dollar mark will be necessary to obtain the required energy to achieve this through his work on cycles. He does not dismiss that the bottom may already be in, but if this the case, the final run up will not be as high. If you believe the bottom is in then that is your choice. It is no more right or wrong than someone who is hoping for further pullbacks as neither know the future. This is a rough summation of his price guide posts. As for his understanding of capital flows and economies, priceless.......worth reading just for this.
