Watching the crash live as it happens

aleks · Jul 28, 2015

An interesting conference call has been leaked where varoufakis claims they did have a Plan B to make a parallel banking system

http://qz.com/464751/oh-dear-now-what-has-yanis-varoufakis-said/

Few thought that Yanis Varoufakis would hop on his motorcycle and ride off into the sunset, never to be heard from again. If anything, the outspoken former Greek finance minister's ability to generate eye-catching headlines has been enhanced since his July 6 ouster after five eventful months in the job.
Never one to mince words, Varoufakis in recent weeks has been busy chucking rhetorical bombs at Greece's latest bailout agreement. But even for hardened Greece watchers accustomed by now to Varoufakis' many reappraisals of his own tenure, his latest pronouncements have been a head-scratcher.
On July 16, almost two weeks after his resignation, Varoufakis was the featured guest on a conference call for international financiers run by a members-only talking shop. The off-the-record call was leaked to Greek newspaper Kathimerini, which promptly ran a story about it this weekend.
On the call, Varoufakis describes a clandestine, convoluted plan in which he and a small group of trusted advisorsled by a "childhood friend"devised a parallel banking system using secretly copied taxpayer-identification numbers from ministry systems. If Greece was about to be booted from the euro zone, this system could be brought online to keep payments flowing in the event of a possible banking meltdown. These transfers could be switched from euros to a new drachma "at the drop of a hat," according to Varoufakis.
Amid lurid headlines of "hacking" and "hijacking" taxpayer information on the sly, Varoufakis released a statement about the affair today, and gave his permission for the audio of the fateful conference call to be released. You can listen to the call here:

Varoufakis said that the so-called "Plan B Working Group" was authorized by prime minister Alexis Tsipras. But after sensitive details were discussed in the call, Varoufakis stopped to stress that "this is totally between us" and "I will deny I said it." Business Insider has broken up some of the juicier parts of the call that deal with the alternative payment-system scheme.
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aleks · Jul 29, 2015

FOMC meeting early thursday morning and preliminary US GDP figures at 1030pm

Caput Lupinum · Jul 29, 2015

1st quarter US GDP figures are meant to be "doubly seasoned adjusted" to give YoY figures a boost for the second quarter figures and reason for the Fed to start hiking in September

aleks · Jul 30, 2015

Not fused which way it goes, don't want to see USD strength getting out of hand but wouldn't mind some more gold buthurt either

aleks · Jul 30, 2015

"meh"

aleks · Aug 5, 2015

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/08/03/uk-britain-economy-boe-idUKKCN0Q80GP20150803

BOE is now unloading a whole heap of data on the economy at one go in what was normally drip fed parts, should make things interesting

aleks · Aug 5, 2015

Atlanta Fed's Lockhart: Fed Is 'Close' to Being Ready to Raise Short-Term Rates

http://www.wsj.com/articles/atlanta...ng-ready-to-raise-short-term-rates-1438709252

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the economy is ready for the first increase in short-term interest rates in more than nine years and it would take a significant deterioration in the data to convince him not to move in September.

"I think there is a high bar right now to not acting, speaking for myself," Mr. Lockhart said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

He is among the first officials to speak publicly since the Fed's policy meeting last week, at which the central bank dropped new hints that a rate increase is coming closer into view, a point he sought to underscore.

Mr. Lockhart is watched closely in financial markets because he tends to be a centrist among Fed officials who moves with the central bank's consensus, unlike those who stake out harder positions for or against changing interest rates. His comments are among the clearest signals yet that Fed officials are seriously considering a rate increase in September.

"It will take a significant deterioration in the economic picture for me to be disinclined to move ahead," he said at a conference table in a room adjacent to his Atlanta office.

His comments follow those of James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, who said in an interview with the Journal on Friday, "we are in good shape" for a rate increase in September.

The Fed has held its benchmark federal-funds rate near zero since December 2008 to try to spur borrowing, spending and investment. Most central bank officials, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen, have indicated they expect to start raising the rate this year, but they haven't decided as a group on when to start.

In weighing when to move, Mr. Lockhart said he was looking at the economy's cumulative progress over many months, particularly on the job front.

"We're getting positive signals from the employment numbers," he said.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in June, well below the recent high of 10% in 2009. Job gains have averaged 208,000 a month this year, compared with 260,000 a month last year.

Moreover, he added, the economy appears to have snapped back from a growth slowdown in the first quarter. "I take the second quarter to have been a nice rebound from the first quarter and my forecast for the third quarter and the fourth quarter is that they will show some improvement over the second quarter."

Hoping to take a longer-term view of economic developments, he added that he wasn't inclined to put too much weight on new data that emerges in the next few weeks unless it is especially weak.

"My priors going into the [September] meeting as of today are that the economy is ready and it is an appropriate time to make a change," he said.

The main catch for the central bank, Mr. Lockhart said, is that he sees little direct evidence inflation is rising toward the Fed's 2% target after running below it for 38 straight months.

Inflation could be held down in the weeks and months ahead because of continued downward pressure on oil prices, he said. Moreover the Fed hasn't seen the breakout in wages it had hoped to see.

The central bank has said it will raise rates once officials become "reasonably confident" that inflation is on a path toward its goal. Mr. Lockhart said he had grown more confident inflation will pick up mainly because slack in the labor market and broader economy is diminishing.

Mr. Lockhart associated the interplay between economic slack and the inflation rate with the late economist A.W. Phillips, who put numbers to the idea that as unemployment rises or falls, wages and thus inflation move in the opposite direction.

Some economists question whether this relationship has held up over time, but Mr. Lockhart said he is putting weight on it.

"I think a policy maker has to act on the view that the basic relationship in the Phillips curve between inflation and employment will assert itself in a reasonable period of time as the economy tightens up, as the resource picture in the economy tightens," Mr. Lockhart said. By that he meant that as unemployment falls further, inflation should start rising.

"I am quite confident that that basic expectation will develop or will materialize." The logic, he added, was "compelling."

The Fed signaled in its policy statement last week that an interest-rate increase was getting closer, Mr. Lockhart said. The statement said officials wanted to see "some further improvement" in the labor market before acting. It added the word "some" to the statement, having said in earlier statements more broadly that it wanted "further improvement." The addition of the word "some," he said, was "a qualifier that conveys to the public that we're getting closer."

The Fed has three more policy meetings this year. The next one is Sept. 16-17, followed by meetings in October and December. Many analysts expect a move in September. Investors have gone back and forth in betting on whether the first move will occur in September or December. Mr. Lockhart, like other Fed officials, said the timing of the first move isn't so important, as long as investors understand the Fed intends to move gradually once it starts.

"I don't think it would be a big policy error to wait somewhat longer," he said. "I'm not one to quibble over one meeting or so. But I do think we are close. The economy is in a state of readiness for beginning normalization."
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col0016 · Aug 5, 2015

Unemployment is at 5%? Riiiiiiight.

-j-p-shmorgan · Aug 5, 2015

col0016 said:

Unemployment is at 5%? Riiiiiiight.
Click to expand...

REAL unemployment here in the US is around 23%. Staggering figure.

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