The Rawdog is Getting Out of Silver!

Discussion in 'Silver' started by Ernster, Jan 11, 2013.

  1. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    @ronnie, deary me (that's my patronising tone coming out), look at the bolded bit ronnie, that's BC mate, BC, we live in AD now. 500BC, that's 2500 years ago, reread, what I wrote originally

    Another less than impressive contribution from you henry, thanks. :p And your marionette thanked you too! You guys are great, just like the Two Ronnies bwhahaha. Hang on, we've already got one ronnmie, so that must mean there's 3!!!!

    Aaah the late lord fishball, I wonder where you'd been bro :p ;)

    I don't view inflation as being a part of a valid economic system. Kapow!!! :D

    Next?
     
  2. magickookaburraride

    magickookaburraride New Member

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    My investment in plastic paid off HUGE this year, silver nada.

    I bought cases of Magpul Pmags for 12 dollars each the minute Obama was re-elected( Because I knew in his second term, he would be unleashed from worrying about getting re-elected ...and go after our firearms like never before ) , you can sell as many Pmag's as you can come up with right now locally for 40-50 dollars each...people will actually stand in line and thank you for the privilege to buy them for 40-50 each( Because some are selling for even more online or on ebay, IF you can even find any for sale.)

    Some told me I was wasting my money , buying something so common as plastic magazines...that there would always be a huge supply of them.

    The day after the CT shooting the supply of Pmags dried up , and now one 12 dollar piece of plastic is worth over 1.5 oz's of silver ( BCG's went from 100 bucks to 300-500, 300 dollar cases of 5.56 ammo went to 1,000 dollars ...etc )

    Funny how plastic/steel/brass/copper are more precious than silver at the moment.
     
  3. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    Who cares what governments decide about what is according to them money?
    I don't.
    I, just like any market participant, choses whatever we think is better in the monetary role of storage of value.
    That happened back in your thousand years, up to now. It's this forum existence reason. The reason that I and you are here.
     
  4. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    What is funny/weird about it?
    That's just what speculation is.
    Foreseeing a shortage, just like the animal that collects fruit in autumn to use in winter, when there is plenty supply and low price, foreseeing the need in winter, when it's scarce and high priced.
    The 'winter' in the story is the event that causes the price difference. Since events happen in the world, in every market, the entirety is a story wherein product A's market sees such event, then product B's, then product C's, then product A's again, and so on. It's not like that silver or anything is the single market where all the events happen.
     
  5. Auspm

    Auspm New Member

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    Leave it at that. The admins here are most active in shutting down any sort of gun related chatter, no matter how innocent.
     
  6. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Which is 1/5 of the definition of money, and is struggling to perform that lately.

    Money is:
    Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/money.html#ixzz2HvGeAr1a

    You must care otherwise you would be using Euros to store your hard earned. At the moment though, most market participants do not choose silver or gold because it's not legal tender, and the clear majority do not consider it to be money.
     
  7. LovingtheSilver

    LovingtheSilver Active Member Silver Stacker

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    Nice one.. easy money :)
     
  8. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    New stuff comes up each day for those with eyes to see.

    http://forums.silverstackers.com/topic-35646-stunning-2-oz-silver-ore-mineral-specimen.html

    Nice specimen and some very interesting statistics too.

    The Cannington mine:
    31Moz of silver, that is 1/3 the total worldwide demand for silver in the form of of coins and medals (ignoring refining requirements) in 2008 -demand which has been argued by some PermaBulls as the primary driving force for silver price rises. I just want to make sure everyone is clear about this, 1/3 of supply for total investment demand for the crazies in 2008 came from one mine only!!!! I must have that wrong. 1/3 from just 1 mine?? And it's got a 25 year lifespan, and it's the worlds lowest cost silver mine!!!!!!

    Furthermore, it met more than 1/4 of demand from the crazies for coins and medals in 2011, because it produced in excess of 32Moz!!! And I repeat, that is one mine only!! And it only represents 6% of the total silver output in the world. So that leaves the rest of the mines to meet the other 94%, now that suggests to me that there is an excess in demand for coins and medals. Good thing there is industrial demand, and jewellery demand, and photographic demand and implied net investment (???). :rolleyes:

    Silver shortage? Goodness.

    http://www.infomine.com/minesite/minesite.asp?site=cannington

    http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-demand/

    Now for some other data for 2011:

    Scrap supply rose? Hang on, aren't above ground silver stocks declining? So where is the rise in recycling coming from? Maybe there is no shortage of above ground silver. Maybe it is not too expensive to recycle silver after all. Scrap silver supply actually met 1/4 of the TOTAL worldwide demand for silver in 2011. 1/4 of the total demand in 2011 was met by recycling.

    http://www.silverwheaton.com/files/docs_quick links/World Silver Survey 2012 Summary.pdf

    Maybe just maybe the stories about silver don't add up?
     
  9. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    LMAO, According to the silver institute in 2008 the demand for coins and medals was 65.3 million ounces , in 2011 it was 118.2 million ounces.

    Despite supply meeting demand exactly apparently for over a decade, the price of silver has risen each year http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/
    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
    Silver Price
    (London US$/oz) 4.599 4.879 6.658 7.312 11.549 13.384 14.989 14.674 20.193 35.119

    Care to explain that Shiney ?
     
  10. upandaway

    upandaway Member

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    Post deleted.
     
  11. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    You didn't read that article I posted did you Shiney ? never mind here's some more Rising cost's falling ore grade, more investor demand.

    [​IMG]
    Source: http://www.wealthwire.com/news/metals/3100
     
  12. Pirocco

    Pirocco Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure what specific your point is.
    That 'generally' and 'majority'?
    How does that matter?
    The dollar is a kind of money.
    The euro is a kind of money.
    Gold is a kind of money.
    Silver is a kind of money.
    These kinds of money are competing with eachother, and it's not because one has the biggest market share that it makes the other not money.
     
  13. Ronnie 666

    Ronnie 666 Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    I believe he is trying to point out that fiat currency is losing its status as money as it is no longer a store of value.
     
  14. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    Thanks sc. Some excellent food for thought for me, and hopefully you, I'm glad you haven't given this thread the flick.

    You mean why has silver increased in price in the same way as most commodities have, albeit at different levels? Easy - you alluded to a couple earlier, steady increasing industrial demand for a while, access to easy credit to allow the expansion of industries, and Crazies and Paper Panzies?? In case you missed it, it's now at 30 after a high of 50 2 years ago, and some of the Crazies are bailing. I imagine ETF's and OTC's will continue to remain popular though. And we all know how joyous the OTC market is. :p

    Reminds me of RE prices in Oz really. :p

    I admit I didn't, it was a SilverBull's article so I wasn't interested. Nice graph though, so I did a search to find why Cannington's production slid.

    Ore grades at Cannington declined in the year ending June 2010 to June 2011, by 20 grams/tonne. And also for the year ending June2011 to June 2012, but by 45 grams/tonne this time. 2011 saw a decline in ore mined because of Cyclone Yasi (the one-off event referred to above), but 2012 has seen an increase in ore being mined, however due to declining ore quality, silver output was down again from 35.2 Moz to 34.2Moz. At some point in time that must lead to a shortage of Ag as long as demand remains.

    But sales of mined silver from Cannington have been steadily declining compared to production, albeit negligibly I suppose, however the gap is widening, indicating demand is cooling. (These are financial year figures).

    2010 Production: 37,276Moz Sales: 37,178Moz
    2011 Production: 35,225Moz Sales: 34,690Moz
    2012 Production: 34,208Moz Sales: 33,259Moz

    But don't be dismayed sc, silver production across the world is still increasing even though sales from Cannington, the cheapest source of mined silver are declining, and even though in 2011 output dropped from the primary silver mines by 2% (mainly Cannington and Fresnillo), other source metal mining managed to increase the total production of silver from 2010 to 2011 by 1% or just over 10Moz, unfortunately during that same period demand declined by just over 3%. BUT REMEMBER, according to the Silver Institute tables, demand and supply balance perfectly each year. So I wonder what cannington has done with the 1000Moz of silver it didn't sell in 2011/2012? :rolleyes: :lol:
     
  15. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    @ Pirocco, the point of our debate now? You say silver is money I say it isn't. :/
     
  16. southerncross

    southerncross Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    Got a link for those figures Shiney ? I have the wheaton article but can find no reference to those figures in it. I guess one can take away what one likes from the article

    Snip
     
  17. mmm....shiney!

    mmm....shiney! Administrator Staff Member Silver Stacker

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    As I was doing it I thought I should provide the links, but I couldn't be bothered, now it's twice as much work finding it :lol:

    a. First lot of figures re Cannington's production, google: BHP production reports for financial years ending June 2011 and June 2012.

    b. 2nd lot re:
    It's a graph on page 7 of World Silver Survey 2012 Summary, it's a PDF, try googling for it.


    Silver Institute tables you are familiar with.

    And the last question:
    Comes from one of those BHP reports and is response to the Silver Institutes balanced supply/demand table.

    As far as your snip: silver supply in 2011 from mining increased from 2010, total silver supply in 2011 decreased compared to 2010 mainly because Russia stopped selling (I think Russia was responsible for 95% of the decline in government selling). So mining production was up but there was less silver supplied, however I'm struggling to see your point why you quoted that.

    What do you think of my bolded point in the quote though? It is a concern to me. And it coincides with the manic price rise at the time. However I think OTC's are now subject to centralised trading regulations aren't they?
     
  18. hawkeye

    hawkeye New Member Silver Stacker

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    Ahhh, but what is money?

    Some people, in fact a fair amount of people use silver as a store of value.

    Sometimes, some people use it as a means of exchange, which although rare compared to say the dollar, does happen.

    It all comes back to definitions. For some people money means strictly government fiat, though I would argue this is far too narrow. Of course this definition also includes for many both cash and bank credit, which are 2 seperate things but often lumped in together under the term money.

    Money is one of the vaguest terms in the English language. If you are going to argue what is and isn't money, maybe a definition would be in order?
     
  19. spannermonkey

    spannermonkey Well-Known Member Silver Stacker

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    here there everywhere
    8 pages of crap , just because one donkey made a couple of pooptube clips & now is bailing out :rolleyes:
    Who frgn cares , can't you people make up your own minds :D
     
  20. Auspm

    Auspm New Member

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    See my sig.
     

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