"If you are long gold in any form, physical, ETF or equities you should sell them now." This article on SeekingAlpha is one of the most contrarian and bearish I have seen. His key idea is that gold is a currency not a commodity, and as such its long term price movements are directly correlated to US Federal Reserve monetary policy. (And to head off "SilverPete is an idiot" responses, I am not endorsing this position.)
Depends on the real interest rate. Rates rose during the seventies. Just not fast enough to get ahead of inflation. Could well happen again.
But surely not enough to cause gold to drop by such a degree in only 5 years? With each major price fall, other buyers (e.g. China) may load up and this would minimize any falls.
I was talking about the seventies. I still think all the money printing will cause inflation and they won't get ahead of it just like the seventies. Can't see another Volker and Reagen coming along anytime soon.
You can see the historical rates in the link below. Rates rose during the seventies except for the recession in the middle period. They real rate is what matters and they didn't get ahead of inflation. May well happen again. http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/statistics/dlyrates/fedrate.html
6. I ask, where and in what form should we hold all of these precious dollars? If Dent is correct and the system collapses won't that mean banks, brokers and anything else in the financial field will fold? Wouldn't your precious dollars be lost? Remember, we now even have "bail in" legislation stating your "deposit" is no longer a deposit you are an unsecured creditor. Let me finish by saying "the dollar" is no longer your grandfather's dollar. Nixon took us off the gold standard because we did not have enough ounces of gold to exchange for the amount of dollars we over issued to THAT POINT! Now, we may have no gold at all left and have issued the money supply 50 fold from the point we admitted gold was more precious than dollars! By telling you gold will be the very worst investment, Harry Dent is putting doubt into current and potential owner's minds at THE very point in time that your "insurance" (gold) is going to be needed. You the reader must make a decision for yourself, a very important one. You can either believe Harry Dent, with his made up history and very flawed core logic, or you can dig for truth and follow your own logic to the very end of the question. I believe if you do this, you will discover gold is real money and real money is truth! www.jsmineset.com/2015/10/17/harry-dent-is-delusional/
Well Billy-Joe called the top to the Metals and the low to the Zimbabwe currency and who has probably made 100x profit by now is saying Silver to go to $1 an ounce and Gold to go to $45-$50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6aU45kUni4 Maybe there is a lot of satire to his videos however I wish right now I made 100 fold profit on anything atm
Sure the FED can definitely try to take again the interest rate to 20%... Popcorn is ready, I really want to see this. But it won't be done under Yellen, she got a stroke just with the simple idea of a 0.25% increase.
I will be buying more definitely not selling, spreading line of defenses. I learned from the past of my USD and never again in the future.
Ending of QE programs? Like 50B a month in Europe? Like expanded QE in Japan and loosening of margin lending in China? Forcast lower rates here too. Throw in the fact that gold production drops maybe 80%+ at $400, much less $250, in an enviroment of huge eastern consumption and I simply don't see it. I suppose in an almost unimaginable deflationary enviroment it's plausible, but then you're talking a calamitous currency situation and the value of an ounce of gold to liters of fuel or ounces to an average family home shouldn't change much. He's essentially describing a world without financial strife. One without geopolitical risk and turmoil. One where the US dollar maintains or even expands it's role as a reserve currency. Do these sound like trends we're seeing and can expect over the next 4 years? It's also world with no new gold exploitation projects, which is good since the number of economically accessible underground ounces is shrinking fast. I don't believe in gold at $25,000 in constant 2015 dollars just like I don't believe in gold at $250 in 2015 dollars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ggv17xLfDkY How has he made x100 profit? Oh, I get it now, it's a joke Hilarious!: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ivL3HB3fp8 Gotta be my new favorite Youtube channel!
Exactly my thinking with gold, but due to the AUD in my case. I buy the occasional sovereign after another stacker introduced me to them.
I believe that the fed won't raise interest rates because people are still in savings mode. Credit cards are much easier in terms of liquidity to the consumer in buying items vs. Hard cash. A recent survey concluded that the average American (with an average home of $245K) doesn't have more than three months worth of emergency money on hand to cover expenses. If we were in the years 1998-2005, then Americans wernt saving at that point in time because jobs were plentiful and everyone was making money! Heck, even Alan Greenspan warned people about "exuberant spending" as he put it. Even he saw the writing on the wall and stepped down to let Bernanke manage it because he knew exactly what he would do. Both of those guys are night and day in terms of fiscal policy. Janet Yellen won't have much success because those jobs numbers are actually part time Jobs, not full time which arent even American workers anyways!. Add to the fact that big corporations are still devouring the mom and pop shops while putting them out of business does not help the situation one bit. Americans have to spend money before interest rates rise. The stock market is already prepared for the rise, and really doesn't even think that the fed will raise the rates, at least not anytime soon. If the stock market did end up taking a nosedive, then that .25% would be quickly retracted. Finally, don't let the stock market fool you when it goes higher. That isn't middle class or lower class money going into it (because they can't save because everything is getting pricier), yet it is the 1% and the "elite" class of individuals.
