Just wanted to start this as a place for continuing discussion of interest rates in Australia. My feeling this month is Leaning towards a 25 basis point cut in interest rates. Everyone thinks it will be kept steady, but I get the feeling a rate cut is planned.
I dont have any faith in our trigger happy RBA, so even though a rate cut is far overdue, i seriously doubt there exists the cranial capacity within the board to actually do it.
Prediction = no change. There hasn't been a huge increase in unemployment and inflation has risen a bit.
Our dollar is foobared whatever the interest rate! Keeping interest rates this high will however assist in popping the RE bubble sooner, which is a great outcome though
If you're implying "Aussie battlers" could do with and extra fifty bucks a month taken off the mortgage on their ridiculously overpriced house, then yes, the RBA should be looking at whether the unemployment numbers warrant lower borrowing costs for businesses so they can expand and how that extra money in the system would affect the rate of inflation with respect to pushing up cost-of-living expenses for everybody, regardless of whether they have a mortgage or not.
What makes you think our dollar is cactus? it has probably the best prospect for being stable of any currency in the western world.If we can just get rid of labour & get a bit of surplus & some better policies in place i can see it being around parity & staying there indefinately.Its only a hiccup atm that im confident will right itself in the next few months.Maybe im wrong time will tell.But the fundamentals that i see wont change in a hurry ...somewhat like your opinion on silver.
I think you over estimate Big A.D.'s influence with the reserve bank. When trying to anticipate their actions the important thing is what they think should be considered
Interested to hear from those who think a cut is warranted at this time their reason/rationale. Thank you.
If central bank overseas let liquidity dry up again the RBA might get sidelined somewhat. Hopefully the banks are using less overseas funding then before. http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank-funding-costs-move-sharply-higher-20111003-1l597.html
I think the RBA has gotten a few free kicks without doing anything at all, ie AUD devaluation and lower real interest rates as charged by banks. If you look at fixed rate loans they've all come down without much fanfare but the economy is still stalled. I think there's a good chance they'll wait one more month before doing anything. Their AUD problem has self corrected, but local retail and housing is still weak. If the lead up to December spending season is weak you'll definitely see cuts imo. I just thought they might nudge it along but the "inflation" worry the RBA keeps harping on about is always near at hand. We definitely have stagflation atm imo. Will be interesting 3 months to watch.
the RBA should be disbanded and the market worldwide should set the rates, down with all central banks
Firstly i dont believe in a central bank controlling interest rates - i believe the cost of money should be set by the markets. however, IF the RBA is going to pull levers and flip switches as they currently do, then i believe the current environment warrants an interest rate cut. 1. The interest rate was pushed up too far and too quickly by our trigger happy insane Glen Stevens. 2. Every part of our economy - outside of mining - is either contracting or teetering on the verge of collapse. Also i dont buy this crap that an interest rate cut would send inflation spiralling upwards. What causes inflation is money printing - and our money supply has increased substantially over the last couple of years.
lol :lol: So you support the unsustainable fiat system then which steals from everybody to make a few elite bankers richer?
I dont actually support it but as long as the rest of the world has an entity to create/manipulate things we need one too.We need to be on an even playing field yippee you still didnt tell me why the $AU was toast.
