Anyone buys QBE lately? It is sub 10 now. Two years trends, the SP always dips in early year then rally in 3rd qtr. Will this cycle repeat again this year? Something to think about
I'd be concerned about the break of $10, if i were considering a buy. Keep a watch maybe. Know nothing about the fundamentals or price behaviour of the stock however.
QBE Insurance Group Ltd shares plunge to 10-year low: Is it a bargain? Andrew Mudie | February 12, 2016 QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX:QBE) shares drop to $9.50 as investors worry about the insurance margin. http://www.fool.com.au/2016/02/12/q...shares-plunge-to-10-year-low-is-it-a-bargain/ His opinion, drawn from fundamental questions (competition effect on insurance margin, plus skimpy interest gathered on funds invested): "Sit and wait" (report Feb 23) My opinion, based on charting mumbo jumbo: "Sit and wait" (probably significantly longer than Feb 23)
Would not touch any insurance provider! Was speaking to a guy that is a high up manager in an insurance company (can't name who) and he was saying their books are looking bad. Their hope is that there will be no more bad events being fires, floods, storms etc.. from now on otherwise things are going to go really bad for them. And this was before the large fires in Victoria and the large storms in NSW and QLD a month or 2 ago. but maybe this describes you
Management 'cleanup' has been ongoing for circa 5 years with a massive senior staff turnover, a shift to a sales oriented disposition, divestment of massive volumes of earnings in the name of poor acquisitions (esp in US business where upside now would have been significant based on revenue and returns gven FX AU/US considerations), now unable to recover lost earnings through organic growth unless price driven versus competitor market, hard in view of educed credibility, reduced expertise and no longer well regarded by untermediary markets other than lip service, low returns, combined with already stated low investment returns and failure to meet internal growth profit hurdles.
Ok, so report's out, and it looks ok to my non analytical eye. There's a 30c franked dividend too, which is close to 6% yield if it can be annualized. Current chart take - the daily and weekly charts are showing signs of a possible 'head fake', or false break of long term support of $10. A close this week above 10.50 would look good = a confirmed 'inside week reversal' - or google '3 inside up reversal'. Stop loss if a convincing break below $9.50 Absolutely not advice, just chart musings. I would need someone to make a fundamentals case to buy this stock. No position Not buying
6 months on and - Back to $10 zone again. Drop in H1 cash profit and mild reduction in full yr guidance Not a relaxing share to hold.
It's been a poor performer but since Feb lows still better than cash especially when you add the dividend. Interest rate rises will be beneficial to the bottom line. Now could be a good entry for the long term. Not the highest quality business on the ASX but not priced like one either. I hold.
It will really depends on the fundamental reasons for the higher inflation causing central banks to raise interest rates
