^ wow it's like you read my thoughts! I thought a similar thing on some of the old posts that were 'resurrected' too. I dunno what to conclude though...
Boston i haven't read his other posts but he makes some interesting points that can be argued each on their own merits. The Euro being shepherded by US Dollars???...To my mind the Euro right now is purely the front man to the US dollar anyway. Does anyone seriously think the Europeans have maintained this united Euro financial front without some heavy handed shouldering by US currency influence? If it was up to Angela Merkel the Germans would have cut half the European members off the boys club by now. The Germans introduced austerity measures with the hope of bolstering the faltering Euro (Which by the way was a disaster waiting to happen) and leading by example. Greece being part of the European union well that was a joke from the start. Bullion dealers trying to manipulate(I prefer push and pull) the market'Never'and frankly it wouldn't be that hard. As for the Pro US$, well its track record for holding together the entire financial system albeit at times thinly is frankly Remarkable with a capitol 'R' Tell me that in itself is not impressive? The US Dollar should have collapsed into oblivion years ago. The amount of unrecoverable debt burden it shoulders would have broken every single 'Medium of exchange' on the planet-Yes even PM's.. but it still goes on because every thread of the spiders web hinges on its anchoring point. As a long standing Gold bug and a true advocate of a return to the Gold standard i am having my doubts that the US dollar will ever tank!,so powerful are the Money brokers. There are also a few points addressed here by others that are askew in relation to TH's original post. Gotta be fair to the man in this particular Thread. i can't say he has been unreasonable in the slightest REDBACK
Fair point Boston but in this thread there is not an immediate house of cards to blow down. All due respect to you Regards REDBACK
Boston I'm with you. I'm new like Treasurehunter but I've also noticed that every post, on every subject, he says 'Buy USD/sell gold'. No matter the situation. Treasurehunter, don't be offended but I ask myself every time I see you writing 'buy USD': "What are your qualifications, and what are your motivations?"
To answer to your two questions: 1) I think that it will rather be the forex speculators, investors, not necessarily the ordinary people who will rush to buy dollars 2) I think they want a stronger dollar, since the US has so much debt to pay... especially because of QE, they could afford printing and the stronger dollar at the same time - perhaps they can balance it in such a way that it doesn't hurt the exports. I think a slightly stronger dollar will benefit the US economy. Look at what happened to the Swiss Franc because of the crisis already in 2008-2009... people across Europe and investors included started buying it. And no, the Swiss didn't want a strong currency, but they got one regardless... they couldn't do much about it!
Ha ha ha, you might have seen me writing "buy USD", I don't necessarily want to buy fiat money. I'm not at all motivated to buy US dollars, I'm just seeing a potential scenario unwinding. I don't see much about the gold crash in the press, even less about the dollar getting stronger on basis of the euro crashing. But if the euro crashes, I assume the dollar will be a good investment.
You couldn't be more wrong. There is nothing pro US dollar, it's mere analysis of facts and possible scenarios. A little imagination doesn't harm anyone. As for "causing confusion" - extremely paranoid and totally false! It's nothing like that. In fact, I'm sure that precious metals are the best hard assets out there and will outperform fiat currencies on the long term. But: there will be fluctuations. One would better prepare for those waves and buy/sell at the right time... The weakening euro will influence the dollar positively. That will influence precious metal prices. And I though maybe I could hear some other opinions on this, therefore I posted this... Indeed, I'm also worried about my investments as well: euro/dollar/PM's? One must know what to prepare for... That was the purpose of this post. I see I alarmed some of you. Perhaps because when someone's sitting on a large amount of PM's, it's a bit scary to hear about a "potential gold crash"... My intention wasn't to alarm anyone, but to discuss this subject open to opinions, suggestions. Some posted very interesting graphs, messages and I thank them!
Aah paying back debt will help exports as the exchange rate will fall. The US debts are predominantly (or exclusively) in USD so the exchange rate is irrelevant.
One post of this nature = good form Two posts of this nature = great form Three posts of this nature = persistence Four posts of this nature = slightly annoying Five+ posts of this nature = does this person have an agenda or what?
1) who cares what the forex speculators do. They're not the only ones in the market. Forex is already a heavily traded market. Gold/silver are thinly traded markets by comparison. 2) What bordsilver said - their debt is in USD, so it doesn't matter one bit. Simply put, a higher USD = more imports, weaker exports, capital inflows, and a boost to China's economy. Lower USD = more exports, less imports, capital outflows, and a boost to the US economy. Choices choices... If you haven't read the book 'currency wars' i suggest you do. It explains these things very well. The countries of the world have been continually battling each other on the exchange rate/currency value front for decades. China is winning at the moment, with Germany/Euro second and the US languishing behind them. Countries like Brazil and Australia are losing. If the US allows its currency to increase in value significantly, it will be 'the biggest loser'. It is currently walking a tightrope between maintaining its credibility as the world reserve currency (high value) and maintaining a competitive export base (low value). In the end it cannot have both, even though it is trying to.
If the US dollar collapses against gold, then the US dollar also collapses against the Aussie dollar. Is there a scenario where the US dollar collapses against gold AND the Aussie dollar collapses against gold?
^ of course, it depends on the situation. Global crisis = all currencies collapse against gold. Local crisis = select currencies collapse against gold (and other currencies). It's all relative. If all countries intentionally try to devalue their currencies against all other currencies, it becomes complex and problematic. But essentially that would imply all currencies collapsing against gold. If you look at a chart from 2002 onwards, it would appear that every currency has devalued against gold. Again, it's all relative and it depends what you measure against. Measuring against a variable (like the USD) means that you will get variable results. Likewise with any floating currency, and even likewise with PMs themselves. What is constant? Well, trends are fairly constant.
TreasureHunter.....I think you have to declare whether or not you work for the US Federal Reserve? :lol:
There always has been a world reserve currency for international trade since the mid 1800's. First it was Pound Sterling from about the 1850's up until WW2, then from 1945 to present its been the USD. Markets need a central reference point to provide constant prices. It's unlikely the USD will loose this world currency leader position while it is the worlds largest economic and military power.
list of doomed fiat: US dollar euro yen the rest widely accepted fiat money the more the currency accepted globally the more it is under pressure ... pressure from what one might ask? Pension which is Ponzi scheme No1, Debt of the nations - Ponzi scheme No2. Neither of this two Ponzis can be solved without inflation or some kind of collapse or default. When?! It is subject to discussions and would be silly to point the date in the future. But it is inevitable and all those so called "wars" just the way to delay the outcome. Matthew is right - there always been reserve currency(which was mostly reference currency). But he didn't mention that for the whole history but last 50-60 years reserve currency was backed by precious metals. So we don't have history to point to of what would happen if ... I wouldn't bet on unlikely scenarios as LTCM with their 1 in a trillion years scenario proved that what is unlikely might happen sooner than later.
That's a joke! Ha ha ha... Ben Bernanke is my brother-in-law (here's another joke). No, actually I'm into precious metal investments. The dollar is a factor and I am analyzing its moves. We all know that the stronger dollar can push gold prices down. It's funny how much controversy this thread has created. All the purpose of it was to discuss a potential scenario. Obviously some of you have been heavily investing in gold and silver and you're very scared. One doesn't have to overreact to potential scenarios. Cool down and analyze. One has to take account of everything. Just remember the 2008 platinum crash and the gold also dropped almost vertically in 1981-82. Here's an article about gold's historical price, its ups and downs: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7284184.stm Again: all I am saying is THINK before you invest. I am trying to understand the future trends. And as we know, understanding the past can help us understand future trends.
Understanding the past cannot predict the future though can it ? If the Euro go's past the S bend then Uncle Sam is but a sparrow's fart behind it, you can't just untangle the arms of the fiat octopus and expect that all be well with one part of the body while the central nervous system is suffering a shutdown as they are all connected. Gold and Silver (when held physically) are outside of third party influence and will become unhinged from the taint of decay and stink associated with fiat of any kind once the smoke and mirrors that currently rule are exposed for the worthless manipulated pieces of paper that they are. The value (of gold and silver) may fluctuate wildly in the death throes of fiat but the endgame will be a restoration of true value in comparable assets rather than a measure of dictated paper deemed as so by a puppet in a suit.
Thank you for the clarification. However, with the US$ and Euro so intertwined, I do not aspire to be holding any US$ when the Euro corrects. Indeed, it would be a brave man/woman who would try to anticipate the very short respite between both currencies to profit on paper from the economic event. If you win, you would get to eat baked beans a little longer than the rest - if you lose, you starve.
