We are not in phase 3, I'm just not seeing that sort of mass market stuff at Perth Mint. I can say compared to 6 years ago we are seeing more newbie customers who really need hand holding through opening an account, whereas before they had done more research on the internet and knew what they wanted re allocated vs unallocated. When I start seeing lots of newbies in big numbers, I'll come on here and tell you we are in phase 3! And that Australian article was so lightweight, basic research would have revealed we have a Mint in Perth, instead he quotes some overseas stuff.
I don't understand economics at all. It annoys me that I don't. It annoys me that it seems so rational to others. Our dollar goes down we pay more, our dollar goes up we pay more. This is how most normal everyday people see economics. Please, why is our dollar overvalued? Why should our dollar be worth less against a currency that is from a decaying society that exploits the world for it's own gain? We have ridden through this financial crisis better than most developed countries yet our dollar is overvalued? Overvalued against what? Please put your answers in simple words. And if any one mentions "fundamentals" or "two speed economy" I'm gonna kick my dog. If this question should be in another thread please forgive me, but the dog still gets it.
"A false balance is abomination to the LORD: but a just weight is his delight. Prov 11:1" Thanks fiatphoney, guess i'll "just have to weight" patiently for an answer
Mate, 3rd Phase is when an asset is in a bubble as people bidding up the price higher than it's true value. Gold is not even it's inflation adjusted price yet. And silver not EVEN in it's last bull market high. Those people who buy gold ETFs are INVESTORS who are well verse in investing in stock market NOT the average Joes on the street. You don't call this a mania. \When (phase 3) the mania starts the average joes will be buying gold the old fashion way. Do you envision grandpas or grandmas who knows nothing in share investing and don't even have an account in brokerage account, would learn about share investing and go open up a brokerage account to buy Gold ETF rather than buying gold the only way they know it? Phase 2 is a buildup phase, and this is a buildup. If you think all these gold buying by investors are indicator of Phase 3, you'll be amaze how much Gold price will be when the real Phase 3 arrived.
He tried to slip his picture onto the new $100 bills and the bills started committing suicide on the printing press.
"Phase 2 is a buildup phase, and this is a buildup. If you think all these gold buying by investors are indicator of Phase 3, you'll be amaze how much Gold price will be when the real Phase 3 arrived." Absolutely. We are not in Phase 3. Almost all of my clients still have no interest in gold or silver. The ones that have bought pms are only using small percentages of their wealth. Most of my clients think gold is too high/in a bubble. They get their information from the Media and the media get their information from the banksters. As others have stated, I too will use ratio analysis to help determine tops in the pms. However, an easier method will be when people are giving me tips on pm stocks to buy and pms are hot topics at parties. Human nature is fairly predictable. It will be interesting to watch how this board evolves as more of the general public becomes interested in pms.
Different economists can have differing viewpoints on things, depending on what school of thought they are discipled in, or which their boss follows. On a forum we also can agree to disagree on stuff. So all that can make economics even harder. Many years ago I asked a question about gold and the RBA to my economics teacher (Yr 11), who co-wrote the Victorian textbook, and he didn't know the answer. When I was an economics teacher I had a good grasp on things. (As a sidenote, I was asked a question on gold once. My answer was intellectual capital can make you the richest man in the world - re Bill Gates, without a fair discussion on gold, dismissing it.) Today I am learning. If politics is the art of deceit to achieve ones own self interest, and domination over others; economics (in practice today) is a vehicle used to hide/give effect to redistribution of wealth, whilst at the same time espousing plans of prosperity for a fair and just society. Ecc 1:18 For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow. Nevertheless, God is good
Just a little background. The concept of 3 phases of a bullmarket (there are also three for a bear), appears to come from a collection of 19th century WSJ editorials about market trends written by its first editor, Charles Dow (who also founded Dow Jones & Company, of which the WSJ was the flagship publication, although it was sold to NewsCorp in 2007). This collection of his writings in the WSJ forms the skeleton of "Dow Theory". He described 3 phases of a bull market Accumulation - early adopters, informed buying, against popular opinion, supply>demand, minimal price move. Public Participation - rapid price change. Distribution - informed investors sell ("distribute") back to the market. This is the top. Bear in mind that the historical context of these views was the late 19th century, when the USA was developing as an industrial power. Along the way various permutations have circulated in the gold media. Example: "Stealth phase" denotes the early adopters in the accumulation phase "Wall of Worry" - institutional investors, accumulating during a time of volatility on a primary bull trend, which "throws off" "weaker hands". "Speculative mania phase"- JSP jumps in, driving prices beyond reasonable value and sustainability "Blow-off" - the last minute euphoria before the near vertical parabola implodes. This version is the one we are most familiar with. It was created by Dr Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a Canadian associate professor of economics of the Hofstra university. Here is the graph from his website: http://people.hofstra.edu/jean-paul_rodrigue/images/Manias Bubbles.pdf He has an interesting blog too. Here: http://people.hofstra.edu/jean-paul_rodrigue/jpr_blogs.html The graph forms part of an entry for 18th January 2006.
And if you look at his entry from 14 March 2009, I think he's picked the bottom of the commodity bust. Smart guy.
Is it possible that we will have a bubble in precious metals, if people must borrow to propel the price? It's counter-intuitive, but an interesting, if ironic, outcome.
I'm not sure that a country can grow and prevail when it's population is so rapidly falling into all kinds of physical and mental health decline from all of the GM "food", HFCS, junk oils, ultra-refined carbs, meat from sick animals, overuse of prescription drugs, environmental toxins (Gulf of Mexico for example), vaccinations and so on. The US may be the dominant military power, but I think that it will be dragged under by the sheer mass of it's sickening population. That is of course unless it turns itself into North Korea - a basically military state where the population lives in agrarian poverty and all of the money goes to the military and the bankers who are the government. I guess that I just answered my own question.....
