It will be the realisation of the impending economic disaster amongst a greater number of people that will push money into tangibles, not just gold. Q.E., deflation, oil price, u.s. dollar......there are no fixed relationships between any of these and gold....they are all temporary and do not always repeat such that they should not be used as a guide. The key is..........confidence.......... The push into U.S. bonds will create an enormous bond bubble....it is when this bubble bursts that the dash to tangibles will probably begin.
I would say QE, deflation, oil prices and the US dollar are all important elements that go into giving people confidence or the lack of confidence in the markets.
Thats right, but we have had them all in doses and gold has fallen. It will be when the masses start to see the bigger picture that will drive gold and tangibles through the roof. Once the Europeans realise that the Euro is a failed experiment, they will want to exit the currency. It will be the perfect storm but only once it hits will people realise their own predicament. It is those that understand the conditions which create the storm who stand the best chance of finding the exits first.
Problem is even if we see $1100 gold with the AUD@$0.75 that's $1466 anyway. You'd need this price to drop fairly soon or fairly far too get a decent discount vs now in Australian gold prices and every week you wait is a gamble on something big falling over. The fact that gold has actually hit multi week highs despite the oil crash makes me think that it isn't the trigger people think it might have been. It could obviously take a while for it to filter into inflation figures but market makers are figuring the oil price directly into gold and it although we don't know where gold would be if the status quo was maintained you can't exactly say this are getting worse. We had euro inflation figures back recently and they came back -0.8 which is more deflationary than people were expecting and gold is still above $1210. If anything I think the question mark over what the oil prices effect on energy companies and sovereign risk on countries debt repayments. Oil steady at $60 is bad for gold but oil way under the cost of production for lots of the biggest projects of the biggest energy companies in the world with no certainty where the price will be tomorrow much less next week is good for gold. US markets have had their worst opening of the year performance since the start of the gfc in 08. I don't think it's the start of a popping bubble but it's a sign that the S&P, DJ and NASDAQ aren't going to be a non stop train to gravy city that it was last year. There could be some more relative strength in the dollar but the narrative on CNBC and Bloomberg is that value is getting harder and harder to find in US markets, there just isn't that much room for higher moves, where's the revenue going to come from? A bump in consumer confidence from lower gas prices? Surely when energy jobs start being cut that will offset that and overseas revenue for companies with foreign exposure are going to be way down thanks to weaker markets and stronger dollar. I just don't think that the US can remain an island of good news with the works the way it is and the length of the run they've had. The fact that gold has held and even gained ground despite everything that's been thrown at it makes me think b the market for gold is stronger than the simple price suggests. Even higher US interest rates could end up being good if they draw money out of the equity markets and inflate the cost of credit to energy companies. Plus, are higher rates really likely if we see some more days and weeks like we have since 1/1?
Just to clarify, I'm not saying we couldn't see $1000 gold, but you have to admit it's lookin less likely than it was a month ago and less likely again given the last week.
CNBC and Bloomberg only ever look at domestic issues and continually fail to ignore the bigger picture. The global issues will overshadow the domestic issues in the U.S.A.. Europe is in a deflationary spiral so those wishing to exit will find a rising u.s. dollar and 1/2% return on a stock to be a very easy decision. It is not about finding value in a stock, it will become safety in a stock. P/E ratios etc will mean nothing. Collapsing currencies will force bond yields down and stocks may consolidate in this period. Not crash of course. There is a big difference. Asian currencies are also coming under pressure along with middle eastern currencies. The rush to safety will carve its own path.
Deflation is currently a US event. With currencies globally falling we cannot expect deflation in Europe or Australia. Inflation is the future for the world while the US and its reserve currency grind into a depression and deflation. With the AU$ expected to hit 0.70 US$ soon how can there be deflation. Ask the Russians ?
Things seem to always surprise in what they do. Its impossible to forecast the future. But gold is the safest bet.
Well, I think low oil prices... especially if we see $USD40's it will have a devastate effect on major OIL producing countries and on global economy.... It will also have an impact on the US... look at Texas for example. It's technically entering in recession due to low oil and gas prices and is one of the states that employ the largest number of people.... So yes, I think low oil prices will bring not only economic problems but, political and possible major conflicts with other countries.... So, IMHO, even if we have a dump in gold paper prices, the accumulation of the metal is too great now.... with REPATRIATION and ACCUMULATION for a future change on the monetary system.....
So the general consensus is buy now or risk it by waiting for a price drop. I suppose that's always the risk, but it seems less people are confident of gold dropping than they were of silver dropping. I guess it doesn't matter one way or the other for me since I won't be able to afford what I plan to buy for another two months lol. Maybe Lady Luck will be on my side when the time comes and ride the tide.
Now, adding Bonds to the mix: ..." the average 10-year bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1 percent for the first time ever, ".... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-...ts-shows-global-economy-still-struggling.html Well.... Industrial commodities(like Silver) could begin a great decline in prices.. Could that be? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ill-see-commodities-falling-10pc-in-2015.html So, any significant drop in paper prices for PM's I will be doing 80/20 gold/silver...... I'm not convinced that Gold will drop as much....but silver yes....(only because of industrial commodity status)
Special Edition PODCAST of Metals & Markets With David Morgan, Alasdair Macleod, & Bill Murphy breaking down whats in store for gold and silver in 2015 and beyond: http://www.silverdoctors.com/morgan...t-historic-mania-stampede-in-history-by-2016/
